PTA装置变化 逸盛海南200万吨检修；恒力徽州500万吨检修。 芳烃橡胶早报 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油 日本 PX CFR 台湾 2025/0 8/18 66.6 571 833 4670 6770 82.57 262.0 117 139 79.0 72.9 42105 -15 0.45 2025/0 8/19 65.8 575 835 4690 6750 92.26 260.0 128 97 79.0 72.9 37547 -12 0.50 2025/0 8/20 66.8 576 838 4690 6805 85.56 262.0 115 135 79.0 72.9 36545 0 0.70 2025/0 8/21 67.7 585 852 4810 6805 88.48 267.0 156 31 79.0 72.9 33102 15 0.70 2025/0 8/22 67.7 587 857 4870 6865 90.54 270.0 197 38 79.3 72.9 33102 20 0.40 变化 0.0 2 5 60 60.00 2.06 3.0 41 7 0.3 0.0 0 5 -0.3 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 刘红光 石化行业联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525060002 邮箱：liuhongguang@cindasc.com 刘奕麟 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524040001 邮箱：liuyilin@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 本期内容提要： [Table_Title] 大炼化周报：长丝需求有所回暖，库存、产销 情况改善 [Table_ReportDate0] 2025 年 8 月 24 日 [Table_Author] [Table_Summary] ➢ 国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪：截至 8 月 22 日当周，国内重点大炼 化项目价差为 2431.20 元/吨，环比变化+29.59 元/吨（+1.23%）； 国外重点大炼化项目价差为 1080.63 元/吨，环比变化-29.81 元/吨（- 2.68%）。截至 8 月 22 日当周，布伦 ...

公司研究 Q2 业绩显著回暖，加速布局高附加值差异化产品 ——恒逸石化（000703.SZ）2025 年半年报点评 买入（维持） 2025 年 8 月 23 日 作者 分析师：赵乃迪 执业证书编号：S0930517050005 010-57378026 zhaond@ebscn.com 分析师：蔡嘉豪 执业证书编号：S0930523070003 021-52523800 caijiahao@ebscn.com 市场数据 | 总股本(亿股) | 36.03 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(亿元)： | 228.77 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 5.32/7.65 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 22.03% | 当前价：6.35 元 股价相对走势 -11% 0% 10% 21% 32% 08/24 11/24 02/25 05/25 恒逸石化 沪深300 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | -3.18 | -5.69 | -28.14 | | 绝对 | 3.08 | 7.08 | 3.44 ...

聚酯板块周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20250822 张伟伟 从业资格证号：F0269806 投资咨询证号：Z0002796 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 宏观及原油重要资讯一览 据央视新闻客户端报道，当地时间21日，美国总统特朗普谈及俄罗斯与乌克兰问题时称"大约两周后就能知道结果"。他表示，两周后，美 国或将采取其他策略。PVM Oi Associates的分析师Tamas Varga表示，和谈的不确定性意味着对俄罗斯实施更严厉制裁的可能性再次出现。 俄罗斯第一副总理表示，俄罗斯持续向印度供应石油、煤炭及石油产品，并看到俄罗斯液化天然气的出口潜力。目前印度对俄罗斯原油的购 买并未因关税威胁而大幅下降。自俄乌冲突引发原油贸易流向重构以来，俄罗斯已超越中东产油国，成为印度最大的原油进口来源国，占其 进口总量的30%至40%。 3 当地时间8月6日周三，特朗普签署行政命令，对来自印度的商品加征25%的额外关税，以回应印继续"直接或间接进口俄罗斯石油"，追加的 25%关税将在命令签署21天后生效。美国对亚洲原油进口买家的制裁措施引发市场忧虑，若印度自俄原油采购渠道受限，可能明显推升相关油 品消费区域的能源成本。 4 EIA ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年8月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC8月报：25/26年度产量2590万吨，消费2560万吨。USDA8月报：25/26年度产 量2539.2万吨，消费2568.8万吨，期末库存1609.3万吨。海关：7月纺织品服装出口267.7亿 美元，同比下降0.1%。7月份我国棉花进口5万吨，同比减少73.2%；棉纱进口11万吨，同比增 加15.38%。农村部8月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨，期末库存823 万吨。中性。 6：预期：郑棉主力01再度回到14000关口争夺。对于金九银十旺季能否旺起来，多空 ...

芳烃橡胶早报 | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/08/22 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | POY 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | 石脑油 日本 | PX CFR 台湾 | PTA内盘现 货 | 50D/4 8F | 石脑油裂 解价差 | PX加工差 | PTA加 工差 | 聚酯毛利 | PTA平衡 负荷 | PTA负 荷 | 仓单+有 效预报 | TA基差 产销 | | | 65.9 | 573 | 828 | 4660 | 6770 | 89.82 | 255.0 | 135 | 141 | 79.0 | 76.0 | 44907 | -15 | 0.40 | | 8/15 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

亏损较大，PTA供应存在缺口 当前，PTA生产企业的加工费处于低位，供应偏紧，库存下降，需求端有小幅回暖预期。后期，在成本 支撑和供需改善的共同作用下，PTA价格有望延续反弹。 总体来看，聚酯行业经营状况有所改善，开工负荷有回升预期，库存则有下降预期，对PTA的需求有望 增加，但增幅相对有限。 综上所述，目前PTA供应偏紧，生产企业亏损加剧，价格存在反弹需求。成本端，PTA加工费处于低 位，亟待修复；供应端，开工负荷低于去年同期，库存下降，供应存在缺口。受此影响，在成本支撑作 用下，PTA价格有望延续反弹态势。 （作者单位：中原期货） 利润修复，聚酯需求小幅回暖 目前，聚酯行业基本处于亏损状态，不过经营状况较前期有明显改善，特别是涤纶长丝，已从之前亏损 200~300元／吨转为如今基本处于盈亏平衡状态。此外，聚酯切片、聚酯瓶片、涤纶短纤分别亏损105 元／吨、220元／吨、225元／吨，亏损幅度环比小幅下降。 截至8月20日，国内聚酯行业的开工负荷为86.46%，较去年同期下降2.83个百分点。随着近期经营状况 略有改善，前期检修的装置有复产预期，聚酯的开工负荷有望得到小幅提升。 下半年以来，国内聚酯长丝库存 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF51)**: The spot price is 5728, the futures price is 5622, the basis is 106, and the basis rate is 1.89% with a historical quantile of 70.60% [1] - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: The spot price is 6020, the futures price is 5836, the basis is 184, and the basis rate is 3.15% with a historical quantile of 56.80% [1] - **Rebar (RB2510)**: The spot price is 3402, the futures price is 3290, the basis is 112, and the basis rate is 5.04% with a historical quantile of 65.70% [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2510)**: The spot price is 3430, the futures price is 3402, the basis is 28, and the basis rate is 0.82% with a historical quantile of 29.10% [1] - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: The spot price is 826, the futures price is 769, the basis is 57, and the basis rate is 7.35% with a historical quantile of 47.10% [1] - **Coke (J2601)**: The spot price is 1678, the futures price is 1624, the basis is 54, and the basis rate is 3.21% with a historical quantile of 32.64% [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: The spot price is 1175, the futures price is 1163, the basis is 12, and the basis rate is 1.03% with a historical quantile of 27.90% [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2509)**: The spot price is 79100, the futures price is 78890, the basis is 210, and the basis rate is 0.27% with a historical quantile of 67.29% [1] - **Aluminum (AL2510)**: The spot price is 20590, the futures price is 20545, the basis is 45, and the basis rate is 0.22% with a historical quantile of 63.12% [1] - **Alumina (AO2601)**: The spot price is 3245, the futures price is 3120, the basis is 125, and the basis rate is 4.01% with a historical quantile of 66.07% [1] - **Zinc (ZN2510)**: The spot price is 22205, the futures price is 22130, the basis is 75, and the basis rate is 0.34% with a historical quantile of 33.95% [1] - **Tin (SN2509)**: The spot price is 268090, the futures price is 266200, the basis is 1890, and the basis rate is 0.70% with a historical quantile of 10.41% [1] - **Nickel (NI2510)**: The spot price is 120825, the futures price is 120330, the basis is 495, and the basis rate is 0.41% with a historical quantile of 80.00% [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2510)**: The spot price is 13270, the futures price is 12885, the basis is 385, and the basis rate is 2.99% with a historical quantile of 77.68% [1] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2511)**: The spot price is 87540, the futures price is 85700, the basis is 1840, and the basis rate is 2.10% with a historical quantile of 27.31% [1] - **Industrial Silicon (212511)**: The spot price is 9250, the futures price is 8390, the basis is 860, and the basis rate is 10.25% with a historical quantile of 57.57% [1] Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2510)**: The spot price is 772.7, the futures price is 769.8, the basis is 2.9, and the basis rate is 0.37% with a historical quantile of 24.00% [1] - **Silver (AG2510)**: The spot price is 9042.0, the futures price is 9022.0, the basis is 20.0, and the basis rate is 0.22% with a historical quantile of 42.80% [1] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: The spot price is 3160.0, the futures price is 2980, the basis is 180.0, and the basis rate is 5.70% with a historical quantile of 4.20% [1] - **Soybean Oil (Y2601)**: The spot price is 8500, the futures price is 8414.0, the basis is 86.0, and the basis rate is 1.02% with a historical quantile of 10.70% [1] - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: The spot price is 9554.0, the futures price is 9500, the basis is 54.0, and the basis rate is 0.57% with a historical quantile of 7.50% [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: The spot price is 2627.0, the futures price is 2610, the basis is 17.0, and the basis rate is 0.65% with a historical quantile of 44.50% [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (Ol601)**: The spot price is 9950, the futures price is 9828.0, the basis is 122.0, and the basis rate is 1.24% with a historical quantile of 49.40% [1] - **Corn (C2511)**: The spot price is 2260, the futures price is 2170.0, the basis is 90.0, and the basis rate is 4.15% with a historical quantile of 86.80% [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2511)**: The spot price is 2730, the futures price is 2489.0, the basis is 241.0, and the basis rate is 9.68% with a historical quantile of 94.60% [1] - **Live Hogs (H251)**: The spot price is 13850, the futures price is 13775.0, the basis is 75.0, and the basis rate is 0.54% with a historical quantile of 44.00% [1] - **Eggs (JD2510)**: The spot price is 3310, the futures price is 3072.0, the basis is 238.0, and the basis rate is 7.75% with a historical quantile of 51.20% [1] - **Cotton (CF601)**: The spot price is 15080, the futures price is 14055.0, the basis is 1025.0, and the basis rate is 7.29% with a historical quantile of 62.50% [1] - **Sugar (SR601)**: The spot price is 6030, the futures price is 5676.0, the basis is 354.0, and the basis rate is 6.24% with a historical quantile of 6.65% [1] - **Apples (AP510)**: The spot price is 8600, the futures price is 8064.0, the basis is 536.0, and the basis rate is 6.24% with a historical quantile of 42.00% [1] - **Jujubes (CJ601)**: The spot price is 11530.0, the futures price is 8300, the basis is 3230.0, and the basis rate is 28.01% with a historical quantile of 3.00% [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Paraxylene (PX511)**: The spot price is 6894.8, the futures price is 6844.0, the basis is 50.8, and the basis rate is 0.74% with a historical quantile of 40.20% [1] - **PTA (TA601)**: The spot price is 4778.0, the futures price is 4705.0, the basis is 73.0, and the basis rate is 1.53% with a historical quantile of 25.40% [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: The spot price is 4515.0, the futures price is 4477.0, the basis is 38.0, and the basis rate is 0.85% with a historical quantile of 72.90% [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF510)**: The spot price is 6504.0, the futures price is 6490.0, the basis is 14.0, and the basis rate is 0.22% with a historical quantile of 40.20% [1] - **Styrene (EB2510)**: The spot price is 7285.0, the futures price is 7275.0, the basis is 10.0, and the basis rate is 0.14% with a historical quantile of 24.80% [1] - **Methanol (MA601)**: The spot price is 2424.0, the futures price is 2300.0, the basis is 124.0, and the basis rate is 5.12% with a historical quantile of 7.40% [1] - **Urea (UR601)**: The spot price is 1776.0, the futures price is 1770.0, the basis is - 6.0, and the basis rate is 0.34% with a historical quantile of 10.70% [1] - **LLDPE (L2601)**: The spot price is 7347.0, the futures price is 7255.0, the basis is 92.0, and the basis rate is 1.25% with a historical quantile of 4.00% [1] - **PP (PP2601)**: The spot price is 7056.0, the futures price is 7050.0, the basis is 6.0, and the basis rate is 0.09% with a historical quantile of 21.60% [1] - **PVC (V2601)**: The spot price is 5008.0, the futures price is 4720.0, the basis is 288.0, and the basis rate is 5.75% with a historical quantile of 8.70% [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: The spot price is 2655.0, the futures price is 2625.0, the basis is 30.0, and the basis rate is 1.13% with a historical quantile of 43.60% [1] - **LPG (PG2510)**: The spot price is 4478.0, the futures price is 4354.0, the basis is 124.0, and the basis rate is 2.85% with a historical quantile of 37.80% [1] - **Asphalt (BU2510)**: The spot price is 3530.0, the futures price is 3454.0, the basis is 76.0, and the basis rate is 2.20% with a historical quantile of 66.80% [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2510)**: The spot price is 11900.0, the futures price is 11715.0, the basis is 185.0, and the basis rate is 1.58% with a historical quantile of 49.60% [1] - **Glass (FG601)**: The spot price is 1162.0, the futures price is 1072.0, the basis is 90.0, and the basis rate is 8.40% with a historical quantile of 34.03% [1] - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: The spot price is 1209.0, the futures price is 1309.0, the basis is - 100.0, and the basis rate is 8.27% with a historical quantile of 5.88% [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: The spot price is 15675.0, the futures price is 14600.0, the basis is 1075.0, and the basis rate is 7.36% with a historical quantile of 23.75% [1] Stock Index Futures - **IF2509.CFF**: The spot price is 4271.4, the futures price is 4270.0, the basis is - 1.4, and the basis rate is 0.03% with a historical quantile of 58.30% [1] - **IH2509.CFE**: The spot price is 2851.2, the futures price is 2847.0, the basis is 4.2, and the basis rate is 0.15% with a historical quantile of 80.70% [1] - **IC2509.CFE**: The spot price is 6728.1, the futures price is 6695.2, the basis is - 32.9, and the basis rate is 0.49% with a historical quantile of 37.40% [1] - **IM2509.CFE**: The spot price is 7305.5, the futures price is 7276.0, the basis is - 29.5, and the basis rate is 0.40% with a historical quantile of 46.90% [1] Treasury Bond Futures - **2 - Year Treasury Bond (TS2509)**: The spot price is 102.32, the futures price is 100.26, the basis is 0.02, and the basis rate is 0.02% with a historical quantile of 34.10% [1] - **5 - Year Treasury Bond (TF2509)**: The spot price is 105.45, the futures price is 100.48, the basis is 0.06, and the basis rate is 0.06% with a historical quantile of 36.80% [1] - **10 - Year Treasury Bond (T2509)**: The spot price is 107.94, the futures price is 100.37, the basis is 0.05, and the basis rate is 0.05% with a historical quantile of 21.70% [1] - **30 - Year Treasury Bond (TL2509)**: The spot price is 131.12, the futures price is 116.24, the basis is 0.01, and the basis rate is

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market anticipates a general cooling of the geopolitical situation, with the cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine progressing gradually, causing oil prices to give back gains and continue weak operation. PX supply is recovering, and it is at an advantageous position in the industrial chain with stable bottom support. Whether PX benefits can continue to rise depends on unexpected factors. PTA is expected to move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor. Polyester bottle - chip supply is sufficient, and the market sentiment is cautious. PX, PTA, and PR are all expected to run in a volatile manner [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On August 20, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $62.71 per barrel, up 0.58%; Brent crude oil was $66.84 per barrel, up 1.60%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $575.50 per ton, up 0.17%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $679.00 per ton, up 0.37%. The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $837.00 per ton, up 0.22% [1] - **PTA**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,778 yuan per ton, up 0.93%, and the settlement price was 4,742 yuan per ton, down 0.08%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,689 yuan per ton, up 0.49%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,686 yuan per ton, down 0.09%, and the foreign price index was $624.00 per ton, up 0.16% [1] - **PX**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,844 yuan per ton, up 1.03%, and the settlement price was 6,782 yuan per ton, down 0.15%. The domestic spot price of PX remained unchanged at 6,654 yuan per ton. The PXN spread was $261.50 per ton, up 0.32%, and the PX - MX spread was $158.00 per ton, down 0.42% [1] - **PR**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,964 yuan per ton, up 0.98%, and the settlement price was 5,914 yuan per ton, down 0.03%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,900 yuan per ton, down 0.34%, and in the South China market was 5,950 yuan per ton, up 0.17% [1] - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY remained unchanged at 8,650 yuan per ton, the price index of polyester POY was 7,100 yuan per ton, down 0.35%, and the price index of polyester FDY68D and FDY150D remained unchanged at 7,150 yuan per ton [2] Device Information - Ningbo Taihua's 1.5 - million - ton PTA device started maintenance on August 7, expected to last 2 months. Yisheng Dalian's 2.25 - million - ton PTA device started maintenance on August 8, expected to last 1 month. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA device is planned for technical transformation from August 15 for 3 months [2] Production and Sales Situation - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industrial chain, PTA factories, polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms all remained unchanged on August 20, 2025. The sales rate of polyester filament was 74.19%, up 23.15 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 48.70%, down 4.34 percentage points; and the sales rate of polyester chips was 103.06%, up 17.01 percentage points [1] Trading Strategy - The TA2601 contract closed at 4,778 yuan per ton (up 0.67%) with a daily trading volume of 790,700 lots; the PX2601 contract closed at 6,844 yuan per ton (up 0.77%) with a daily trading volume of 308,800 lots; the PR2511 contract closed at 5,964 yuan per ton (up 0.81%) with a daily trading volume of 73,600 lots. PX, PTA, and PR are all expected to run in a volatile manner (PX view score: 1, PTA view score: 1, PR view score: 1) [2]

研究中心能化团队 2025/08/21 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油 日本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 TA基差 产销 2025/0 8/14 66.8 571 824 4650 6770 81.06 253.0 148 147 78.3 76.0 46107 -15 0.35 2025/0 8/15 65.9 573 828 4660 6770 89.82 255.0 135 141 79.0 76.0 44907 -15 0.40 2025/0 8/18 66.6 571 833 4670 6770 82.57 262.0 117 139 79.0 76.0 42105 -15 0.45 2025/0 8/19 65.8 575 835 4690 6750 92.26 260.0 128 97 79.0 76.0 37547 -12 0.50 2025/0 8/20 66.8 576 838 4690 6805 85.56 262.0 115 135 79.0 ...