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中金:情绪回暖下券商业务全面向好 建议持续关注板块投资价值
智通财经网· 2025-09-02 08:49
Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that listed brokerages are expected to see a 30% year-on-year increase in adjusted revenue and a 50% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with annualized ROE rising by 2.3 percentage points to 7.4% [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, listed brokerages reported a 30% year-on-year increase in adjusted revenue and a 50% increase in net profit, with annualized ROE rising to 7.4% [2] - For Q2 2025, adjusted revenue increased by 31% year-on-year and 16% quarter-on-quarter, while net profit rose by 51% year-on-year and 21% quarter-on-quarter, leading to an annualized ROE of 7.8% [2] - The revenue structure for the first half of 2025 shows brokerage income at 26% (up 2 percentage points), investment banking at 6% (down 1 percentage point), asset management at 9% (down 3 percentage points), investment at 44% (up 4 percentage points), and net interest at 8% (down 1 percentage point) [2] Balance Sheet Analysis - As of Q2 2025, total assets of listed brokerages increased by 11% year-to-date and 4% quarter-on-quarter, with investment assets also up by 11% year-to-date and 3% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The average leverage ratio remained stable at 3.3x year-to-date and quarter-on-quarter [3] - Top brokerages saw total assets increase by 13% year-to-date and 3% quarter-on-quarter, with an average leverage ratio of 4.2x [3] Revenue Trends - Revenue from fee-based businesses increased by 21% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, accounting for 41% of total revenue [4] - Brokerage income rose by 39% year-on-year, while investment banking income increased by 9% year-on-year, benefiting from a recovery in Hong Kong IPO activity [4] - Asset management income decreased by 6% year-on-year, primarily due to fee reforms, although market conditions supported a quarter-on-quarter increase [4] Capital Business Performance - Revenue from capital-related businesses grew by 38% year-on-year, making up 52% of total revenue [5] - Investment income increased by 42% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in derivative products and proprietary trading [5] - Net interest income rose by 17% year-on-year, supported by a declining cost of liabilities in a loose monetary environment [5]