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国泰海通:7月美国服装零售增速连续2月改善 关注出口链和轻奢赛道结构性投资机会
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-18 08:57
Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates a slowdown in China's textile and apparel retail growth in July, while online sales are accelerating. In contrast, U.S. textile and apparel retail has seen two consecutive months of acceleration in growth [1][2]. Group 1: China Textile and Apparel Retail - In July, China's retail sales of clothing, shoes, and knitted goods increased by 1.8% year-on-year, showing a slowdown compared to June's growth of 1.9%. Cumulatively, from January to July, the retail sales grew by 2.9% year-on-year, compared to a mere 0.5% in the same period last year [2]. - Online retail sales of clothing in China from January to July grew by 1.7% year-on-year, accelerating from 1.4% in the first half of the year, but down from 6.3% in the same period last year [2]. Group 2: U.S. Textile and Apparel Retail - In July, U.S. retail sales for clothing and accessories increased by 5.0% year-on-year, accelerating from June's growth of 4.7%. Cumulatively, from January to July, the growth was 4.4% year-on-year, compared to 2.0% in the same period last year [2]. Group 3: Performance of Taiwanese Manufacturers - In July, several Taiwanese manufacturers reported a slowdown in revenue growth compared to June. For instance, Yu Yuan's revenue growth was +0.5%, Feng Tai's was -8.8%, and Yu Qi's was +5.2%, contrasting with June's growth rates of +9.4%, -3.1%, and +23.3% respectively [3]. - The latest quarter saw strong brand momentum for On and Coach, with On managing to offset tariff impacts through price increases. Coach anticipates a $160 million impact on gross profit due to tariffs in FY26 [3]. Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Tapestry reported FY25 revenue of $7.01 billion, a 5% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin rise of 2.1 percentage points to 75.4%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was $180 million, affected by an $850 million loss provision for Kate Spade, but showing a 25.6% growth when adjusted [3]. - Coach's performance was strong, with a neutral growth rate of 10% for the year. In FY25 Q4, Coach's growth accelerated to 13%, with core markets like North America, China, and Europe growing by 16%, 22%, and 12% respectively [3]. - On reported FY25 Q2 revenue of 750 million Swiss francs, a 32.0% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin increase of 1.6 percentage points to 61.5%. The company raised its full-year guidance for revenue growth to at least 31% [4].