[Table_Main] 公司研究|可选消费|耐用消费品与服装 证券研究报告 [Table_Summary] 事件： 公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。 点评： 营收稳健增长，利润增长亮眼 2025H1 公司实现营业收入 41.02 亿元，同比增长 19.54%；归母净利润 3.31 亿元，同比增长 44.34%；扣非净利润 3.30 亿元，同比增长 46.14%；毛利 率 23.81%，同比微降 0.34pct。净利率达到 8.11%，同比提升 1.38pct。费 用率方面，25H1 公司销售费用率 9.27%，同比-2.09 pct；管理费用率 1.56%， 同比-0.36pct，研发费用率 1.08%，同比+0.24 pct。 传统黄金产品毛利率明显优化，上新多授权 IP 系列触达年轻消费群体 分业务来看，25H1 时尚珠宝业务实现收入 19.9 亿元，同比增长 20.33%，毛利率 27.43%，同比-1.09pct。传统黄金产品实现收入 18.3 亿 元，同比增长 23.95%，毛利率提升 3.01%至 12.78%。代理品牌授权及加 盟服务实现收入 1.23 亿元，同比微降 0.45%。皮具业务实 ...

纺织服饰/饰品 潮宏基（002345.SZ） 2025 年 08 月 25 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/8/22 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 15.20 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 18.18/4.06 | | 总市值(亿元) | 135.05 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 131.83 | | 总股本(亿股) | 8.89 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 8.67 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 279.63 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 潮宏基 沪深300 ——公司信息更新报告 黄泽鹏（分析师） 姚慕宇（联系人） yaomuyu@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125040021 2025H1 归母净利润同比+44.3%，产品升级和渠道扩张带动业绩向上 公司发布中报：2025H1 实现营收 41.02 亿元（同比+19.5%，下同）、归母净利润 3.31 亿元（+44.3%）；单 2025Q2 实现营收 18.50 亿元（+13.1% ...

智通财经APP获悉，澳门统计暨普查局资料显示，2025年第2季零售业销售额为159.7亿元(澳门元，下 同)，按年下跌1.4%，跌幅明显较2025年第1季(-15.0%)收窄。主要零售行业中，第2季成人服装和百货的 销售额回升，分别录得2.7%及1.9%的按年增幅，而皮具(-4.4%)和化妆品及卫生用品(-3.6%)的减幅亦较 首季显著放缓。扣除价格因素影响的销货量指数方面，第2季同比下跌2.4%，当中成人服装(+7.3%)、百 货(+5.7%)和化妆品及卫生用品(+0.2%)录得增长，通讯设备(-4.8%)、超级市场(-2.4%)和皮具(-0.2%)则按 年下跌。 综合零售商户意见，预计今年第3季货物销售量与去年同季相若的商户有54.7%，认为销售量将会减少 的有40.0%，预期增加的占5.3%。与此同时，有76.0%商户预测第3季销售价格将维持在去年同期水平， 认为价格会下跌的占18.1%，而预计上升的占5.9%。 今年上半年零售业销售额为335.5亿元，按年减少9.0%。皮具和化妆品及卫生用品的销售额分别下跌 15.8%及14.3%，药房和汽车则上升4.5%及3.6%。上半年销货量平均指数同比下跌11. ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月22日 潮宏基（002345.SZ） 优于大市 二季度利润增长超 40%，加盟门店持续扩张 营收增长稳健，利润增速超 40%。公司 2025 上半年实现营收 41.02 亿元，同 比+19.54%，归母净利润 3.31 亿元，同比+44.34%。单二季度看，营收同比 +13.13%至 18.5 亿元，归母净利润 1.42 亿元，同比+44.29%。整体营收在加 盟开店扩张及公司出货的批发业务增长下表现稳健，利润受益费用进一步优 化、珠宝业务中高毛利率定价产品占比提升而表现更优。总体上，虽短期直 营转加盟导致收入增速与利润增速不相匹配，但更轻的渠道模式将助力公司 未来加速门店规模扩张。 珠宝业务增速超 20%，潮宏基主品牌净开 72 家加盟店。分业务看，珠宝业务 收入增长21.22%至39.73 亿元，其中时尚珠宝产品增长20.33%至19.9 亿元， 传统黄金产品增长 23.95%至 18.31 亿元，受益于非遗工艺金饰品的优异表 现。皮具业务受需求下滑影响而营收同比下滑 17.77%至 1.23 亿元。渠道方 面，整体门店净开 31 家至 1542 家，其中潮宏基主品牌净开 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates a slowdown in China's textile and apparel retail growth in July, while online sales are accelerating. In contrast, U.S. textile and apparel retail has seen two consecutive months of acceleration in growth [1][2]. Group 1: China Textile and Apparel Retail - In July, China's retail sales of clothing, shoes, and knitted goods increased by 1.8% year-on-year, showing a slowdown compared to June's growth of 1.9%. Cumulatively, from January to July, the retail sales grew by 2.9% year-on-year, compared to a mere 0.5% in the same period last year [2]. - Online retail sales of clothing in China from January to July grew by 1.7% year-on-year, accelerating from 1.4% in the first half of the year, but down from 6.3% in the same period last year [2]. Group 2: U.S. Textile and Apparel Retail - In July, U.S. retail sales for clothing and accessories increased by 5.0% year-on-year, accelerating from June's growth of 4.7%. Cumulatively, from January to July, the growth was 4.4% year-on-year, compared to 2.0% in the same period last year [2]. Group 3: Performance of Taiwanese Manufacturers - In July, several Taiwanese manufacturers reported a slowdown in revenue growth compared to June. For instance, Yu Yuan's revenue growth was +0.5%, Feng Tai's was -8.8%, and Yu Qi's was +5.2%, contrasting with June's growth rates of +9.4%, -3.1%, and +23.3% respectively [3]. - The latest quarter saw strong brand momentum for On and Coach, with On managing to offset tariff impacts through price increases. Coach anticipates a $160 million impact on gross profit due to tariffs in FY26 [3]. Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Tapestry reported FY25 revenue of $7.01 billion, a 5% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin rise of 2.1 percentage points to 75.4%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was $180 million, affected by an $850 million loss provision for Kate Spade, but showing a 25.6% growth when adjusted [3]. - Coach's performance was strong, with a neutral growth rate of 10% for the year. In FY25 Q4, Coach's growth accelerated to 13%, with core markets like North America, China, and Europe growing by 16%, 22%, and 12% respectively [3]. - On reported FY25 Q2 revenue of 750 million Swiss francs, a 32.0% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin increase of 1.6 percentage points to 61.5%. The company raised its full-year guidance for revenue growth to at least 31% [4].

Group 1: Company Performance - Hermès reported a 9% increase in sales for the second quarter, reaching €3.9 billion, with all regions showing growth [14] - Adidas achieved a 7.3% increase in net sales for the first half of the fiscal year, totaling €12.1 billion, with a gross margin of 51.9% [2] - Prada's net revenue for the first half of the fiscal year reached €2.74 billion, reflecting a 9.1% growth at constant exchange rates [2] - Canada Goose reported a strong start to the new fiscal year with a 22.4% increase in global revenue, amounting to CAD 107.8 million [9] - Kering's stock price rose 24% following the appointment of Luca de Meo as CEO, who received a €20 million signing bonus [3] - SMCP's sales increased by 2.7% to €601.1 million, with all regions outside Asia showing growth [11] Group 2: Operational Changes - PUMA appointed Andreas Hubert as COO, effective September 1, to streamline operations and integrate various functions [6] - Arena announced Mark Pinger as the new Chief Brand Officer, effective October 1, leveraging his sports background for brand growth [7] - Jil Sander's CEO Serge Brunschwig resigned after six months, indicating potential instability in leadership [13] Group 3: Market Trends and Insights - L'Oréal's second-quarter sales grew by 1.6%, with an operating profit margin of 21.1%, indicating a positive trend in digital transformation [8] - The luxury market shows a divergence in brand performance, with Prada's main brand experiencing a slight decline while Miu Miu surged by 49.2% [2][3] - The disappearance of shares held by Hermès' largest individual shareholder may impact brand image and market confidence [5]

Core Viewpoint - The cultural, sports, and entertainment industry is experiencing rapid growth driven by increasing consumer demand and emotional consumption, particularly among the younger generation [1][3][6]. Group 1: Industry Growth - In Jiangsu Province, the revenue of the cultural, sports, and entertainment industry increased by 20.7% year-on-year in May [1]. - In Henan Province, the revenue growth reached 23.9% from January to May, surpassing the overall service industry growth by 16.4 percentage points [1]. - In Sichuan Province, the revenue growth was 18.7% from January to May, showing a recovery of 2.8 percentage points compared to the previous month [1]. - In Anhui Province, the revenue grew by 16.5% from January to May, with film production and entertainment sectors growing by 74.8% and 23.6% respectively [2]. - In Guizhou Province, the revenue increased by 21.2% during the same period [2]. Group 2: Emotional Consumption Trends - Emotional consumption is on the rise, with the Z generation leading the trend, focusing on personal experiences and willing to spend on self-pleasure [3]. - Emotional consumption spans various age groups, including middle-aged and elderly consumers attending concerts, indicating a broadening market [3]. - The "Su Super" league has created emotional connections with local culture, enhancing community engagement and making football a part of everyday life [3]. Group 3: New Consumption Scenarios - The "Su Super" league generated service revenue of 37.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.7% across tourism, dining, and accommodation sectors [4]. - Concerts have become significant outlets for emotional expression, with nearly 50% of attendees being over 40 years old, reflecting a nostalgic connection to music [4]. - Micro-short dramas are emerging as popular "emotional fast-moving consumer goods," catering to consumers' need for quick emotional relief [4][5]. - New tourism concepts like "wo nang drift" are gaining popularity by appealing to younger consumers' desire for fun and emotional value [6]. Group 4: Industry Development and Opportunities - The micro-short drama industry in Henan has seen a revenue increase of 89.0%, significantly outpacing the overall cultural and entertainment sector [5]. - The integration of culture and emotional value is becoming a key trend in driving consumption growth, with various new consumption scenarios emerging [6].

Group 1 - The luxury goods industry is showing initial signs of stabilization after experiencing demand slowdown and valuation declines, suggesting that the worst phase may be coming to an end [1] - Swatch AG's CEO Nick Hayek reported early signs of improvement in key markets, while Burberry's same-store sales fell only 1%, outperforming analyst expectations of a 3.7% decline, leading to a 6.6% surge in its stock price [1][2] - LVMH's upcoming financial report is expected to be disappointing, particularly due to weak performance in key categories like leather goods, which may hinder the industry's recovery pace [1][2] Group 2 - There is a significant disparity in performance among luxury brands, with Brunello Cucinelli SpA reporting an 11% sales increase in Q2, while LVMH has become one of the weakest performers due to consumer fatigue in its leather goods segment [2] - Burberry's better-than-expected results are partly attributed to a low base effect from a 21% sales drop in the same period last year [2] Group 3 - Some investors believe that the valuations of certain luxury brands have already absorbed pessimistic expectations, with LVMH's forward P/E ratio around 19.5, close to its five-year average low [3] - However, not all luxury stocks appear cheap, as Hermes has a P/E ratio of about 50 times, reflecting strong demand for its star products [3] Group 4 - Although the most severe phase of decline may be nearing its end, a full recovery in the luxury goods sector is still a distant prospect, with upcoming fashion weeks expected to provide more direction [4] - Brands that can accurately gauge consumer changes and effectively execute their strategies are likely to stand out in this differentiated recovery [4]

Core Insights - The foundation-laying ceremony for the Fashion Brand Headquarters in Shiling, Huadu District, Guangzhou, marks a significant step towards the modernization and intensive transformation of the leather goods industry in the region, injecting new momentum into the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area's industrial upgrade [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The project, led by the Shiling Leather Goods Chamber of Commerce and key industry enterprises, aims to create a fashion brand headquarters park that integrates the entire supply chain of leather goods and bags [1] - The project covers an area of 33,300 square meters with a total construction area of 156,700 square meters and a total investment of 700 million yuan [1] - The project has received property rights certification and has officially commenced construction, with an occupancy rate of over 90% for the first phase, indicating strong market expectations for industrial upgrades [1] Group 2: Upgrades and Innovations - The project aims to achieve three major upgrades: - Technological upgrade by introducing digital design platforms and smart production management systems, transitioning the leather goods industry from traditional manufacturing to "smart production + personalized customization" [1] - Supply chain upgrade by constructing an integrated chain from raw material supply to research and design, finished product sales, and logistics distribution, enhancing regional industrial collaboration efficiency [1] - Brand upgrade by leveraging the geographical advantages of the Greater Bay Area to establish an international exhibition and trade platform, facilitating local brands' access to global markets [1] Group 3: Economic Impact - Upon completion, the project is expected to directly create 2,000 jobs and generate approximately 1 billion yuan in annual economic benefits [2] - The project promotes the Shiling leather goods industry to extend towards the high end of the value chain through a "leading enterprises guiding + small and medium enterprises clustering" model, becoming a new engine for high-quality regional economic development [2] - On the day of the ceremony, 15 quality enterprises signed agreements to settle in the park, attracted by the excellent industrial ecosystem, top-notch office environment, and quality industrial services [2]

Core Viewpoint - Burberry's proactive price reduction strategy has led to a significant recovery in its stock price, increasing over 70% since mid-April 2023, despite facing severe challenges in the luxury goods sector [2][6]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, Burberry reported revenues of £2.461 billion, a 17% decrease year-on-year, with adjusted operating profit down 94% to £26 million [2][5]. - Comparable store sales fell by 12% for the fiscal year, with the Asia-Pacific market experiencing a 16% decline [3][5]. - The fourth quarter showed a narrowing decline in comparable store sales to 6%, better than the market expectation of 7.78% [5]. Strategic Changes - New CEO Joshua Schulman has implemented a strategic shift focusing on classic products and reducing prices, moving away from previous high-end strategies [6][7]. - The company plans to cut approximately 1,700 jobs, which is nearly 20% of its global workforce, aiming to save £60 million by fiscal year 2027 [6][8]. Market Dynamics - Japan was the only market to show growth for Burberry, with a slight increase of 1%, primarily driven by spending from Chinese tourists [4]. - The outlet channel has become increasingly important, with Burberry being referred to as the "Outlet Queen," as it has performed well despite challenges in high-end retail locations [8][10]. Inventory and Pricing Strategy - Burberry has faced significant inventory issues, leading to a 7% decrease in total inventory at constant exchange rates [11]. - The company's gross margin fell to 62.5%, down 470 basis points at constant exchange rates, primarily due to discounting actions to manage excess inventory [11].