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国泰海通:7月美国服装零售增速连续2月改善 关注出口链和轻奢赛道结构性投资机会
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-18 08:57
Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates a slowdown in China's textile and apparel retail growth in July, while online sales are accelerating. In contrast, U.S. textile and apparel retail has seen two consecutive months of acceleration in growth [1][2]. Group 1: China Textile and Apparel Retail - In July, China's retail sales of clothing, shoes, and knitted goods increased by 1.8% year-on-year, showing a slowdown compared to June's growth of 1.9%. Cumulatively, from January to July, the retail sales grew by 2.9% year-on-year, compared to a mere 0.5% in the same period last year [2]. - Online retail sales of clothing in China from January to July grew by 1.7% year-on-year, accelerating from 1.4% in the first half of the year, but down from 6.3% in the same period last year [2]. Group 2: U.S. Textile and Apparel Retail - In July, U.S. retail sales for clothing and accessories increased by 5.0% year-on-year, accelerating from June's growth of 4.7%. Cumulatively, from January to July, the growth was 4.4% year-on-year, compared to 2.0% in the same period last year [2]. Group 3: Performance of Taiwanese Manufacturers - In July, several Taiwanese manufacturers reported a slowdown in revenue growth compared to June. For instance, Yu Yuan's revenue growth was +0.5%, Feng Tai's was -8.8%, and Yu Qi's was +5.2%, contrasting with June's growth rates of +9.4%, -3.1%, and +23.3% respectively [3]. - The latest quarter saw strong brand momentum for On and Coach, with On managing to offset tariff impacts through price increases. Coach anticipates a $160 million impact on gross profit due to tariffs in FY26 [3]. Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Tapestry reported FY25 revenue of $7.01 billion, a 5% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin rise of 2.1 percentage points to 75.4%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was $180 million, affected by an $850 million loss provision for Kate Spade, but showing a 25.6% growth when adjusted [3]. - Coach's performance was strong, with a neutral growth rate of 10% for the year. In FY25 Q4, Coach's growth accelerated to 13%, with core markets like North America, China, and Europe growing by 16%, 22%, and 12% respectively [3]. - On reported FY25 Q2 revenue of 750 million Swiss francs, a 32.0% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin increase of 1.6 percentage points to 61.5%. The company raised its full-year guidance for revenue growth to at least 31% [4].
富国“港股一姐”宁君:港股价值修复进行时,竞争壁垒是投资首选
券商中国· 2025-06-30 09:58
Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance this year, with sectors like internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals leading the way [1][9]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment framework prioritizes competitive barriers, followed by growth potential and valuation, which remains consistent across various market conditions [3]. - Competitive barriers are deemed essential for a company's long-term value and its ability to maintain market share against new entrants [3]. - Growth potential is influenced by the industry in which a company operates, with some industries offering more opportunities for scale and new growth avenues [3]. - Valuation is approached flexibly, with the understanding that market conditions can alter perceptions of what constitutes a fair price [3]. Group 2: Portfolio Management - The investment strategy has evolved from a "bottom-up" stock selection approach to incorporating macro and meso factors, reflecting a sensitivity to policy and capital flow impacts [4]. - The portfolio has been adjusted to a "high dividend + quality growth" strategy, which has helped mitigate losses during market downturns [5]. - The current holdings reflect a balanced approach, including both trendy and traditional sectors, showcasing a unique stock selection style [6]. Group 3: Market Insights - The Hong Kong market is characterized by institutional dominance and is less prone to bubbles, as large shareholders can quickly finance through placements if prices rise excessively [8]. - The market is currently in a phase of value recovery, with key sectors like internet and innovative pharmaceuticals still undervalued [8]. - The influence of southbound capital is significant in the dividend stock sector, while growth stocks remain a battleground for domestic and foreign investors [8]. Group 4: Company Performance - The fund managed by the company has achieved a nearly 45% return over the past year, ranking highly among peers [2][9]. - Notable holdings include companies like Pop Mart, Inspur Digital, and NetEase Cloud Music, indicating a focus on high-quality growth stocks [2][6].