Core Viewpoint - Baiya Co., Ltd. reported a year-on-year revenue increase of 15.1% in the first half of 2025, reaching 1.764 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 4.6% to 188 million yuan. The company faced challenges in the second quarter due to negative public sentiment affecting online sales, but it is expected to recover in the third quarter as operational strategies are optimized [1][2]. Revenue Performance - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 1.764 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15.1%. The second quarter revenue was 768 million yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year [1][2]. - The revenue from the "Free Point" sanitary napkin product line reached 1.687 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.5%. The health product series, including probiotics and organic cotton, is expected to account for over 50% of total revenue, up more than 8 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Channel Performance - Offline sales showed robust growth, with a year-on-year increase of 39.8% in the first half of 2025. Specific regions such as Sichuan-Chongqing, Yunnan-Guizhou-Shaanxi, and surrounding provinces saw revenue growth of 13.1%, 14.7%, and 124.2%, respectively [2]. - Online sales were negatively impacted by public sentiment, resulting in a year-on-year decline of 9.4% in the first half of 2025. However, data indicates that the decline in GMV on platforms like Tmall, JD, and Douyin has narrowed in July, suggesting a potential recovery in the third quarter [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company's gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 53.2%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased logistics and packaging costs in the e-commerce channel. Adjusting for accounting impacts, the gross margin is expected to remain stable year-on-year [3]. - The operating expense ratio for the first half of 2025 was 40.7%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. The sales expense ratio rose by 1.1 percentage points to 36.4%, driven by increased marketing expenditures due to public sentiment challenges [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 372 million, 487 million, and 657 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 29%, 31%, and 35%, respectively. Corresponding EPS estimates are 0.87, 1.13, and 1.53 yuan [4]. - Based on a competitive analysis, the company is assigned a target price of 34.8 yuan for 2025, reflecting a 40 times PE ratio, supported by its strong offline channel and anticipated recovery in online sales [4].