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东方甄选(01797):GMV拐点持续强化,看好长期增长
Guohai Securities· 2025-08-28 05:35
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has shown a significant recovery in its core business profitability in FY2025H2, with a total revenue of 4.39 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 32.7% [7][11] - The self-operated product strategy has proven effective, contributing 43.8% of total GMV, with total revenue from self-operated products reaching approximately 3.5 billion yuan [9][14] - The company is expanding its product matrix, increasing the number of SPUs from 488 in FY2024 to 732 in FY2025, diversifying into various categories [9][14] Financial Performance - The company achieved a GMV of 8.7 billion yuan in FY2025, with a second-half revenue of 2.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 10% quarter-over-quarter increase [11][14] - Gross profit for FY2025 was 1.4 billion yuan, with a gross margin improvement from 25.9% in FY2024 to 32.0% in FY2025 due to normalized discount levels [11][14] - The core net profit for FY2025 was 6.191 million yuan, with a year-over-year increase of 30% when excluding one-time expenses related to the divestiture of a subsidiary [11][14] Growth Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 5.148 billion yuan, 5.965 billion yuan, and 6.773 billion yuan for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 244 million yuan, 294 million yuan, and 355 million yuan [13][14] - The projected P/E ratios for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 are 106.85, 88.87, and 73.65 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [13][14] Strategic Developments - The company is enhancing its supply chain capabilities and has seen a significant increase in paid membership, with a 33% year-over-year growth to 264,000 members by the end of FY2025 [14] - The self-owned app channel has become increasingly important, contributing 15.7% of total GMV, with its share of self-operated product GMV rising from 16.3% in FY2024 to 28.8% in FY2025 [14]