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东方甄选(01797):下半财年净利润扭亏为盈,期待战略转型效果显现
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-25 05:20
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The company has turned a profit in the second half of FY2025, with sustainable net profit increasing by 16% [1][4] - The strategic transformation is expected to yield positive results, particularly with the focus on self-operated products and membership models [4][19] - The company has experienced a significant decline in sustainable revenue and profit due to the divestiture of its subsidiary "Yuhui Tongxing" [1][9] Financial Performance Summary - For FY2025, the company achieved sustainable revenue of 4.39 billion yuan, a decrease of 32.7% year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of the subsidiary divestiture [1][9] - The sustainable net profit for FY2025 was 6.19 million yuan, down 97.5% year-on-year; however, excluding one-time expenses and profits from the sale of "Yuhui Tongxing," the ongoing net profit was 135 million yuan, an increase of 30% [1][9] - In FY2025H2, the company reported sustainable revenue of 2.21 billion yuan, a decline of 46.4% year-on-year, but a sustainable net profit of 1.03 billion yuan, reflecting a 16.1% increase [1][9] Product and Channel Analysis - In FY2025, the GMV for self-operated products was 3.81 billion yuan, accounting for 43.8% of total GMV, showing an upward trend from approximately 40% in FY2024 [2][10] - The estimated gross margin for self-operated products improved to about 23% due to reduced promotional efforts [2][10] - The sales channel distribution for FY2025 showed that the company's own app accounted for 15.7% of GMV, an increase of 7.3 percentage points [2][10] Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin for FY2025 was 32.0%, an increase of 6.0 percentage points, driven by reduced promotional activities [3][16] - The net profit margin was 0.1%, with a significant improvement in H2, where the net profit margin turned positive at 4.7% [3][16] - The company is focusing on deepening its own app layout and expanding membership benefits to drive traffic growth [19] Future Earnings Forecast - The net profit forecast for FY2026 is adjusted to 266 million yuan, with projections for FY2027 and FY2028 at 572 million yuan and 1.05 billion yuan, respectively [4][22] - The company is expected to maintain a PE valuation of 130x for FY2026, 60x for FY2027, and 33x for FY2028 [4][22]