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航班预计到达时间(ETA)精准预测模型
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西安咸阳国际机场上线航ETA精准预测模型 误差率低于行业近五成
Core Insights - The introduction of the Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) prediction model at Xi'an Xianyang International Airport significantly enhances operational efficiency and provides accurate information services for travelers [1][2]. Group 1: Airport Overview - Xi'an Xianyang International Airport is one of China's eight regional hub airports and a 4F level civil international airport, highlighting its importance in the global aviation landscape [1]. - The airport is projected to handle 47.03 million passengers in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.7% [1]. - Cargo and mail throughput is expected to reach 290,500 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 9.3% [1]. - The number of aircraft takeoffs and landings is anticipated to be 331,800, reflecting a growth of 7.1% [1]. Group 2: ETA Prediction Model - The ETA prediction model utilizes advanced technology to analyze key data such as flight route information and standard instrument departure and arrival procedures, initiating dynamic trajectory estimation immediately after a flight takes off [2]. - The model incorporates real-time flight data from the ADS-B system and employs a 4D trajectory prediction approach, enhancing the accuracy of ETA predictions [2]. - Fixed point parameters are established for various distances, allowing for continuous updates to the ETA as flights pass these points, thereby improving prediction reliability [2]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - Since the model's implementation, it has been applied to 28,298 flights, achieving an average error time of only 0.47 minutes, which is significantly lower than the industry average of 3.09 minutes [3]. - The model has reduced flight waiting times by a total of 1,457 hours, leading to improved ground support efficiency and cost savings [3]. - Real-time flight information dissemination aids travelers and pick-up personnel in planning and adjusting their schedules, contributing to the development of a "smart airport" [3].