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外汇期货周度报告:关税风波再起,美元短期走弱-20250525
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-25 12:12
Report Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "Oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints - Market risk appetite has cooled, with most global stock markets falling and bond yields rising. The US dollar index has weakened, while non - US currencies have mostly appreciated. Gold and Brent crude oil prices have increased. The threat of tariffs and the US government's debt issues are major concerns, and the stock market's subsequent volatility may increase [1][2][8] Summary by Directory 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite has cooled. Most stock markets have fallen, and bond yields have mostly risen, with the US Treasury yield reaching 4.51%. The US dollar index has dropped 1.96% to 99.1, and non - US currencies have mostly appreciated. Gold has risen 4.8% to $3357 per ounce, the VIX index has rebounded to 22.3, and the spot commodity index has closed higher. Brent crude oil has rebounded 0.7% to $65.5 per barrel [1][8] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets have mostly fallen. Developed - market stocks have generally declined, with the S&P 500 down 2.61%. Emerging - market stocks have shown mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.57%. Concerns about the US government's debt have increased after Moody's downgraded the US rating. Tariff issues have pressured the stock market, and economic data has been affected by pre - tariff export rushes. The Fed's interest - rate cut intention has decreased, and the stock market's subsequent volatility may increase [9][10] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields have mostly risen, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield reaching 4.51%. Eurozone countries' bond yields have shown mixed trends, and emerging - market bond yields have mostly increased. The demand for long - term bonds in Japan and the US has been weak, pushing up yields. The US 30 - year Treasury has exceeded 5%. The Chinese 10 - year Treasury yield has risen to 1.697%, and the domestic bond market remains in a volatile state [14][16][21] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index has dropped 1.96% to 99.1, and non - US currencies have mostly appreciated. The offshore RMB has risen 0.53%, the euro has risen 1.75%, the pound has risen 1.89%, and other non - US currencies have also shown significant increases [28] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold has risen 4.8% to $3357 per ounce. Moody's downgrade of the US government rating and tariff threats have boosted gold prices. The gold market has entered an oscillating phase. Brent crude oil has rebounded 0.7% to $65.5 per barrel, and the overall commodity market has closed higher [33] 3. Hot - Spot Tracking - Trump has threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU on June 1 and a 25% tax on Apple's products produced in India. The implementation of the 50% tariff on the EU is likely, which may cause greater market volatility. The passage of the US tax - cut bill is expected to increase the deficit and exacerbate the US Treasury problem [37][38] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: The US and the UK will have a one - day holiday - Tuesday: The US will release the March housing price index and the May Conference Board consumer confidence index - Wednesday: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its interest - rate meeting decision - Thursday: The US will release the first - quarter GDP revision and the weekly initial jobless claims, and the Fed will release the May interest - rate meeting minutes - Friday: The US will release the April core PCE [39]