美国财政部11月18日公布的最新国际资本流动报告(TIC)数据显示，9月份海外投资者持有的美国国债总 额为9.249万亿美元，低于上月的9.2662万亿美元。 中国第五次减持 全球主要经济体的美债持仓情况正发生微妙变化。日本作为美债最大的海外持有国，在9月份增持89亿 美元，总规模达到了1.189万亿美元，创2022年8月以来新高。这也是日本连续9个月增持美债。 受降息因素推动，8月、9月期间美债收益率震荡走低，10年期美债收益率最大振幅超过40个基点，一度 跌破4%。 在美政府"停摆"结束后，美联储鹰声渐浓，使得市场对降息的预期大幅降温。目前，10年美债收益率已 升至4.15%。 克利夫兰联储主席哈马克表示，美联储应维持利率稳定，以继续对通胀施压。 明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利则由鸽转鹰，指出经济活动的基本韧性比预期的要强，并不支持美联储 上一次的降息决策。 美联储主席鲍威尔曾在10月末明确表示，12月降息远非板上钉钉。 中国则在8月小幅增持41亿美元后，9月转而减持5亿美元，使总持仓降至7005亿美元。这是中国今年第 五次减持美债。自2011年持仓规模达到逾1.3万亿美元的峰值以来，中国就一直在逐步减持美 ...

但从根本上来说，在本次美国政府长时间"停摆"的背后，是美国政府日益严重的债务问题。10月22日， 美国财政部公布的数据显示，美国联邦政府债务规模总额在10月21日首次超过了38万亿美元。客观而 言，美国债务加剧可谓是美国经济的老问题。但令人担忧的是，美国债务膨胀的速度正在越来越快。事 实上，距美国债务规模宣布突破37万亿美元，才刚刚过去两个月。若将研判的时间线再拉长一些：1981 年，美国联邦政府债务规模首次突破1万亿美元，2008年次贷危机期间也不过刚刚突破10万亿美元，但 增长曲线越来越陡峭，先后在2017年、2022年突破20亿美元、30亿美元，增长10亿美元所用时间间隔从 9年，缩短至5年。此后，美国国债规模增长1亿美元的用时也从以"年"计，加快到以"月"计：2024年1 月、7月和11月，美国联邦债务规模接连突破34万亿美元、35万亿美元和36万亿美元。 截至目前，美国两党仍在博弈之中。虽然美国政府因两党政治博弈而关门在历史上并不少见——20世纪 70年代以来，美国联邦政府因共和、民主两党政策分歧导致拨款中断而"停摆"已有二十多次。但今年美 国政府"停摆"的背景更趋复杂：受困于特朗普关税政策导致美国 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report's Core View - Gold and copper are both rated as long - term strong, with short - term and medium - term upward trends. Gold shows an intraday trend of being oscillating and strengthening, while copper is oscillating and stabilizing [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: International gold prices have been rising, with New York gold breaking through $4100 per ounce and domestic Shanghai gold rising above 930 yuan per gram [3]. - **Driving Factors**: The upward trend is driven by global monetary policy shifts, increased geopolitical risk aversion, and structural demand changes. Market expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts, geopolitical risks such as Sino - US trade friction and the Ukraine crisis, and concerns about the US government's debt problem have led to a continuous influx of safe - haven funds. Global central banks' large - scale gold purchases and strong investment demand from institutions and individuals, as shown by the record inflow of funds into global gold ETFs in September 2025, are also important factors [3]. - **Short - term Outlook**: Sino - US trade friction may accelerate the upward movement of gold prices, with gold likely to be stronger than silver and the gold - silver ratio rising. The 5 - day moving average can be used as a short - term strength or weakness dividing line [3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: On Monday, domestic copper prices oscillated and stabilized, and the night - session prices continued to rebound, recovering from the decline caused by the short - term intensification of Sino - US trade relations [5]. - **Driving Factors**: After the market digests trade disturbances, copper prices are in a context of macro - economic easing and shrinking demand. Attention should be paid to whether the demand side can accept high copper prices [5]. - **Short - term Outlook**: Copper prices are expected to continue to be strong, and attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the post - holiday high [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Oscillation [1] - Silver: Oscillation [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core driving factors for the rise in gold prices, such as the US government debt issue and the long - term logic of de - dollarization trading, remain intact, determining the bull market pattern of gold. The issue of the Fed's independence still has room to ferment in the long run, which will push up the gold price when it resonates with other assets. In the fourth quarter, gold is expected to enter an oscillation phase [4]. - The silver price increase is basically in place. In the fourth quarter, the London silver is expected to trade in the range of $40 - 50 per ounce, and the main contract of Shanghai silver in the range of 9000 - 12000 yuan per kilogram [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Third - quarter Gold Market Review - After the gold price rose to a maximum of $3500 per ounce due to tariffs in the first half of the year, it entered a range - bound oscillation. From late April to late August, London gold oscillated horizontally in the range of $3100 - 3500 per ounce. A new upward trend started at the end of August. The weak non - farm employment reports from August to September strengthened the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts, driving capital into gold. In September, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, entering the second half of the rate - cut cycle. Trump's intervention in the Fed also contributed to the rise in gold prices. In the third quarter, the gold price rose by 16%, with a 11% increase in September alone [13][16]. 3.2 Standing at the Historical High and Looking Ahead 3.2.1 The US Economy Is in a State of Decline but Not in Recession, and Stagflation Needs Further Verification - The US economic growth has gradually slowed down in the first three quarters. Although consumption has some resilience, the economic endogenous expansion momentum is weakening. After the equal - tariff policy was implemented in August, its impact on the real economy remains to be seen. The labor market has weakened significantly in the third quarter, and inflation has stopped falling and rebounded. The potential risk of stagflation has not been ruled out and requires hard data verification [22]. 3.2.2 The Sharp Drop in Employment Data Strengthens the Expectation of Rate Cuts - In the third quarter, the US labor market reached a turning point. The non - farm employment data was significantly revised downwards, and the average non - farm employment increase in the past four months was only 26,000. The employment market has no supply - demand gap, and the unemployment rate may rise further. Most service industries and the manufacturing industry are reducing employment. The market's trust in the data quality of the US Department of Labor is also declining [34]. 3.2.3 Inflation Rebounds and Faces Upward Risks - Since the second half of 2024, US inflation has stopped falling and rebounded. In the third quarter of 2025, inflation rebounded again. Although the impact of tariffs has not fully manifested, core inflation still has upward space. In August, the core PCE increased to 2.9% year - on - year [45]. 3.3 The Fed's Independence Is Disturbed, and There Are Concerns about Fiscal Deficit Monetization 3.3.1 The Fed Resumes Rate Cuts, and Its Independence Is Worrisome - In the third quarter, after the significant decline in non - farm employment data, the Fed turned dovish and cut interest rates in September. The market expects the Fed to cut rates twice more in the fourth quarter. The internal division between hawks and doves in the Fed has intensified. Trump's interference in the Fed's personnel has undermined the Fed's independence, which may drive up the gold price in the long run [52][55]. 3.3.2 The US Fiscal Deficit Continues to Expand, and the Logic of Gold as a Credit Hedge Remains - In the 2025 fiscal year, the US fiscal deficit has continued to grow, reaching $1.8 trillion as of August, and the deficit - to - GDP ratio has expanded to - 6.6%. The Trump administration aims to maintain economic growth, which requires continued fiscal expansion and rate cuts. The US government debt problem is difficult to solve quickly, and the combination of high inflation and low interest rates will lead to a decline in the US dollar's credit, making the logic of going long on gold firm [60][65]. 3.3.3 Overseas Markets Increased Their Allocation of Gold in the Third Quarter - In the process of the continuous rise in the gold price, there has been a rotation in the allocation of gold between overseas and Chinese markets. In the third quarter, due to the weakening of the US employment market, the strengthening of rate - cut expectations, and the outbreak of the Fed's independence issue, overseas markets increased their long - position sentiment towards gold. The North American gold ETF holdings increased significantly, while the domestic market showed less enthusiasm for gold [69][70]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - For the fourth quarter, the London gold is expected to trade in the range of $3400 - 4000 per ounce, and the main contract of Shanghai gold in the range of 800 - 900 yuan per gram. The domestic gold is expected to remain at a discount to overseas gold. The London silver is expected to trade in the range of $40 - 50 per ounce, and the main contract of Shanghai silver in the range of 9000 - 12000 yuan per kilogram [77].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government is facing a potential shutdown as Congress has failed to reach an agreement on temporary funding measures ahead of the new fiscal year starting October 1 [1][2][4] Group 1: Government Shutdown Implications - If Congress does not pass a temporary funding bill by midnight on September 30, the government will shut down, affecting hundreds of thousands of federal employees who will be furloughed [2][5] - Key economic data releases, such as the September employment report and the inflation report, may be delayed due to the shutdown [3][4] - The White House's Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has indicated that a shutdown would lead to significant layoffs across government departments, marking a more severe situation than in previous shutdowns [5][18] Group 2: Political Stalemate - The inability to pass a temporary funding bill stems from ongoing partisan conflicts in Congress, with both parties failing to compromise on key issues [8][11] - A temporary funding bill proposed by Republicans was narrowly passed in the House but failed in the Senate, highlighting the deep divisions between the parties [12][13] - Democrats are insisting on including healthcare funding provisions in any temporary bill, while Republicans want to address those issues later [13][14] Group 3: Debt Concerns - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, reaching a historic high of $37,467,893,078,454 as of September 29, indicating an unsustainable fiscal path [19][20] - The rapid increase in debt is concerning, with projections showing that the debt could rise by $1 trillion in approximately 173 days at the current growth rate [20] - Experts warn that high debt levels will increase interest payment burdens and limit the government's ability to implement counter-cyclical fiscal policies during economic downturns [20]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices has reached a historic high, surpassing the peak from the 1980s, driven by concerns over the stability of the US dollar and global geopolitical tensions [2][4][8] Group 1: Gold Price Surge - As of September 12, the international spot gold price hit $2,420 per ounce, marking a 15% increase compared to the same period last year [2] - The current gold market is more stable than in 1980, with a broader participation from retail investors, central banks, and ETFs, providing a buffer against extreme volatility [6][10] Group 2: US Dollar Concerns - The US federal government debt has exceeded $35 trillion, with each American bearing over $100,000 in debt, raising doubts about the sustainability of the dollar's value [4] - The Federal Reserve's inconsistent monetary policy, including recent hints at interest rate cuts, has led to a loss of confidence among investors in dollar-denominated assets [6] Group 3: Geopolitical Tensions - Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Europe, along with trade frictions, have increased market uncertainty, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold [8] - Gold has historically served as a "hard currency" during turbulent times, providing a sense of security for investors [8] Group 4: Central Bank Strategies - Emerging market countries have been actively increasing their gold reserves, reflecting a strategic shift away from reliance on the US dollar [10] - This trend of central banks accumulating gold is seen as a structural support for gold prices, contrasting with the speculative nature of the 1980s gold rush [10]

Group 1 - The total federal government debt in the United States has surpassed $37 trillion, occurring several years earlier than expected [1] - Each American citizen is effectively responsible for approximately $108,000 of this debt, with the debt increasing at a rate of $3.5 million per minute, $212.9 million per hour, and $5.1 billion per day [3] - The "Big and Beautiful" plan proposed by Trump is projected to increase the fiscal deficit by about $4.1 trillion over the next decade, contributing to the growing debt [3] Group 2 - The Trump administration is under pressure to manage this massive debt, as failure to do so could undermine international confidence in U.S. Treasury securities and jeopardize the dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency [5] - Trump has called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to alleviate the burden of interest payments on the debt, indicating potential changes in leadership at the Fed [6] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has suggested a controversial idea of leveraging income from U.S. companies operating in China to help pay down the debt, although this may face significant challenges [6] Group 3 - The U.S. government has reportedly installed tracking devices in exported goods, including chips, to monitor their destinations, specifically targeting China [8] - There are concerns regarding the security of U.S. chip exports to China, with allegations that certain products may contain backdoors, complicating trade relations [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent tax and spending bill passed by Congress is expected to exacerbate long-term debt issues in the U.S., despite temporarily alleviating short-term default risks [2][3]. Group 1: Legislative Impact - The bill extends Trump's 2017 tax cuts and authorizes increased spending on border security and military, while significantly cutting Medicare and Medicaid [2]. - The borrowing limit for the U.S. government has been raised by $5 trillion, which is projected to increase national debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade [2][3]. - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill will reduce tax revenue by $4.5 trillion and cut spending by $1.2 trillion over the next ten years, resulting in 10.9 million people losing federal health insurance [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Foreign investors are reportedly selling U.S. Treasuries, raising concerns about declining demand and increasing borrowing costs [3]. - The 10-year Treasury yield has rebounded due to investor worries about fiscal health, indicating a potential long-term rise in interest rates [4]. - The market's reaction to the bill has been relatively muted, as the expansion of the deficit has already been priced in since Trump's return to office [5]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The bill is expected to contribute 0.5% to economic growth next year, but concerns remain that the debt burden may offset the intended economic stimulus [3]. - The focus of the market is shifting towards economic data and corporate earnings, with the debt issue becoming a secondary concern [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent statements by Atlanta Fed President Bostic highlight a cautious approach towards U.S. economic policy amid uncertainty, advocating for patience and a wait-and-see strategy to avoid detrimental adjustments in interest rate policy [1][3]. Economic Policy and Uncertainty - Bostic emphasized that making significant adjustments to monetary policy in the current uncertain environment is unwise, noting that the resilience of the U.S. macroeconomy provides a buffer for policymakers [3]. - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates unchanged this year, indicating a wait for more key economic signals before making decisions [3]. Tariff Policy and Inflation - Bostic is particularly focused on the impact of tariff policies, suggesting that price increases due to tariffs may manifest gradually rather than as a sudden spike, potentially leading to rising inflation expectations over time [4]. - He warned that if his assessment is correct, the U.S. economy could face prolonged high inflation pressures, which would pose significant challenges for future Federal Reserve policy decisions [4]. Labor Market Observations - Despite a positive employment report for June, Bostic noted subtle changes in the labor market, such as a slowdown in hiring, indicating a gradual softening of the labor market [4]. - He strongly advised the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to remain patient and wait for clearer economic conditions before making decisions to avoid unnecessary market volatility [4]. Government Debt Concerns - Bostic pointed out that the rising U.S. government debt levels will have significant implications for policymakers, as high debt servicing costs could crowd out resources for other important economic activities [5]. - He highlighted that the recently passed tax and spending bill could increase the deficit by nearly $3.3 trillion over ten years, raising concerns about the potential impact on fiscal policy and interest rates [5]. - Bostic expressed worry that if financial markets perceive the U.S. government debt as a rising risk, interest rates may move independently of Federal Reserve policy, creating substantial challenges for monetary policy formulation [5].

Core Viewpoint - The conflict between President Trump and Elon Musk highlights significant issues regarding U.S. government debt and fiscal responsibility, with Musk criticizing Trump's tax and spending policies while Trump defends his administration's actions [1][2][3] Group 1: Conflict Background - The conflict escalated after the House of Representatives passed a large tax and spending bill proposed by the Trump administration, which Musk criticized for not aligning with fiscal responsibility [1] - Musk's resignation from his government position coincided with the criticism of the administration's spending plans, as he failed to meet his goal of reducing government spending by $1 trillion, achieving only a reduction of less than $200 billion [1] Group 2: Musk's Criticism - Musk publicly opposed Trump's tax bill, urging citizens to contact their legislators to "kill" the proposal, stating that "bankrupting America is wrong" [2] - He also criticized Trump's tariff policies, predicting they would lead to an economic recession in the latter half of the year [2] Group 3: Trump's Defense - Trump responded to Musk's criticisms by stating that Musk was "not in a good place" and that he had removed him from the government efficiency role, claiming that ending Musk's government subsidies would save hundreds of billions [2] - Trump emphasized that the tax bill was passed quickly without proper scrutiny, which Musk corroborated by stating he never saw the bill [2] Group 4: Broader Economic Context - The U.S. federal debt has reached $36.2 trillion, accounting for 124% of GDP, with interest payments consuming 25% of government revenue, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [2][3] - The "big and beautiful" tax bill is projected to increase the federal deficit by $2.4 trillion over the next decade, contradicting the principles of fiscal restraint that both Musk and Trump previously advocated [3] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating due to rising debt and interest payments, warning of significant future increases in the federal deficit [3]