Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoint The overall trend of the rebar main contract is weakly volatile, but the mid - term shows strength on the daily moving average. It is expected to follow the spot price to repair the basis. The fundamentals are in the peak season, and the rebar price is likely to maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern. Attention should be paid to the downstream resumption progress and de - stocking speed [6]. Summary by Directory Market Review - The rebar main contract on Thursday had a position reduction of 65,665 lots, and the trading volume shrank compared to the previous trading day, with 648,797 lots. The short - term moving average fell below the 5 - day moving average of 3,141, but the daily line was above the mid - term 30 - day moving average of 3,093 and the 60 - day moving average of 3,113, indicating mid - term strengthening [1]. - The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream area was 3,260 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - The futures were at a discount of 125 yuan/ton to the spot [2]. Fundamental Data - Supply: In the week of March 19, 2026, the rebar production was 2.0333 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 80,300 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 228,800 tons. The steel mill resumption rhythm was moderate, and the supply pressure on prices was limited [3]. - Demand: In the week of March 19, 2026, the current apparent demand was 2.0809 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 312,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 349,100 tons. Seasonal resumption drove the rebound of apparent demand, but it was still weak year - on - year. The intensity of demand recovery was the core variable [3]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 6.5321 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13,400 tons; steel mill inventory was 2.362 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34,200 tons; total inventory was 8.8941 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 47,600 tons, entering weekly de - stocking for the first time. However, the absolute inventory and inventory - to - sales ratio were still high, suppressing the upward price space [3]. - Cost and profit: The steel price valuation was at a low level. Geopolitical factors pushed up oil prices and shipping costs, supporting commodity prices [3]. - Macroeconomic aspect: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress on March 5, 2026, released positive signals. The government work report proposed measures such as issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, arranging 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, and implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. Market expectations for infrastructure and real estate support increased, and sentiment was supported [5]. Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Low steel price valuation, geopolitical factors pushing up costs, policy support expectations, implementation of steel mill production cuts, and cost support repair [6]. - Bearish factors: Persistent weak terminal demand, weakening cost support, continuous inventory accumulation, slow de - stocking speed, and bearish capital position structure [6].