Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Goldtrust Futures Daily Journal, dated March 20, 2026 [1] - The report focuses on the sharp decline of Shanghai silver futures and technical analysis of various futures products [2][3] Group 2: Shanghai Silver Futures Analysis - **Reasons for the decline**: The main reasons for the more than 10% plunge of the Shanghai silver main contract to a minimum of 17,701 yuan/kg are the triple resonance of the Fed's hawkish expectations, the surge in the US dollar and US Treasury yields, and the concentrated escape of high - position profit - taking orders. Specific factors include macro - policy suppression, sentiment and capital stampede, the characteristics of the variety, and technical breakdown [3] - **Operation suggestions**: In the short term, strictly control positions, mainly short on rallies. Be cautious about bottom - fishing, and consider lightly testing long positions after the stabilization signal (such as volume contraction and stop - falling, MACD bottom divergence) appears, and strictly set stop - losses [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Other Futures Stock Index Futures - The market continued to gap down and move lower throughout the day with shrinking trading volume. Technically, there may be a repair in the early trading tomorrow at the 5 - minute level. Operationally, mainly short on rallies [6][7] Gold - The red - green line on the daily level of gold has turned bearish. Gold had a continuous sharp decline in the afternoon, showing a weak trend. It is still recommended to take a short - selling approach in the future [11] Iron Ore - Australia and Brazil's shipments maintain a normal rhythm. In the medium - to - long term, it is in the mine production capacity release cycle, and there is still an expectation of loose supply. On the demand side, steel mills' resumption of production after the festival may have a certain driving effect, but the start of terminal demand still takes time. Technically, near the previous high, long - position holders should protect their profits [14][15] Glass - The daily melting volume has declined, and the inventory has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of deep - processing enterprises after the festival. In the short term, it is more affected by the overall sentiment of commodities. Technically, before the upper pressure is broken through, it should be regarded as a wide - range shock [18][19] Methanol - The rising market is driven by multiple positive factors such as the unexpected resumption of production of port MTO devices, a sharp decrease in import arrivals, and a surge in foreign natural gas prices. The spot market has actively followed the rise, and the price difference between ports and the inland has rapidly widened. It is expected that the strong market will continue in the short term [22] Pulp - The current futures price of pulp has broken through the low of nearly a year ago. Although it is expected that there is still some room for decline, the downward space is relatively limited, attracting some corporate customers to take over. The number of long - position customers has increased, and there is a certain bottom support. Attention should be paid to position control [25]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoint The overall trend of the rebar main contract is weakly volatile, but the mid - term shows strength on the daily moving average. It is expected to follow the spot price to repair the basis. The fundamentals are in the peak season, and the rebar price is likely to maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern. Attention should be paid to the downstream resumption progress and de - stocking speed [6]. Summary by Directory Market Review - The rebar main contract on Thursday had a position reduction of 65,665 lots, and the trading volume shrank compared to the previous trading day, with 648,797 lots. The short - term moving average fell below the 5 - day moving average of 3,141, but the daily line was above the mid - term 30 - day moving average of 3,093 and the 60 - day moving average of 3,113, indicating mid - term strengthening [1]. - The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream area was 3,260 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - The futures were at a discount of 125 yuan/ton to the spot [2]. Fundamental Data - Supply: In the week of March 19, 2026, the rebar production was 2.0333 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 80,300 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 228,800 tons. The steel mill resumption rhythm was moderate, and the supply pressure on prices was limited [3]. - Demand: In the week of March 19, 2026, the current apparent demand was 2.0809 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 312,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 349,100 tons. Seasonal resumption drove the rebound of apparent demand, but it was still weak year - on - year. The intensity of demand recovery was the core variable [3]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 6.5321 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13,400 tons; steel mill inventory was 2.362 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34,200 tons; total inventory was 8.8941 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 47,600 tons, entering weekly de - stocking for the first time. However, the absolute inventory and inventory - to - sales ratio were still high, suppressing the upward price space [3]. - Cost and profit: The steel price valuation was at a low level. Geopolitical factors pushed up oil prices and shipping costs, supporting commodity prices [3]. - Macroeconomic aspect: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress on March 5, 2026, released positive signals. The government work report proposed measures such as issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, arranging 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, and implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. Market expectations for infrastructure and real estate support increased, and sentiment was supported [5]. Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Low steel price valuation, geopolitical factors pushing up costs, policy support expectations, implementation of steel mill production cuts, and cost support repair [6]. - Bearish factors: Persistent weak terminal demand, weakening cost support, continuous inventory accumulation, slow de - stocking speed, and bearish capital position structure [6].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a complex secondary bottoming process, with fluctuations expected to be the main theme in the near term [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - On February 5, spot gold briefly surpassed the $5000 per ounce mark but quickly retreated below $4900, indicating a technical second bottoming process that will be more complicated and volatile [1]. - The market's expectation of a hawkish stance from the newly nominated Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh has led to a significant rebound in the US dollar index, causing substantial declines in both gold and silver prices [1]. - The increase in trading margin requirements by exchanges has raised the cost of trading for market investors, resulting in a noticeable exit of short-term capital [1]. - Despite the long-term bullish fundamentals for the gold market remaining unchanged, short-term factors such as hawkish Fed expectations and increased trading costs are unfavorable for the initiation of a new market rally [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The recent sharp decline in gold prices is viewed as a normal deceleration during a transitional phase, with the 5-day moving average and the middle band of the Bollinger Bands converging around $4850 per ounce [1]. - The primary resistance level is identified in the range of $4825 to $4858 per ounce, while the support level is near the 30-day moving average at approximately $4700 per ounce [1]. - A break below $4700 per ounce could lead to further declines towards $4615 and $4550 per ounce [1]. Group 3: Silver Market Analysis - In comparison to gold, silver has experienced a more significant decline over the past three days, with its downward movement exceeding that of gold [2]. - After a brief recovery, silver's rebound has been less pronounced than that of gold, indicating that it has already entered a secondary bottoming phase and has broken below the initial low of the week, suggesting further downside potential [2].

Core Insights - The recent drop in gold prices was primarily triggered by a significant decline in the Nasdaq, leading to a liquidity crisis in the market, compounded by hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve and profit-taking activities [2] - Despite the recent volatility, the underlying bullish trend for gold remains intact, supported by ongoing global central bank gold purchases, the Fed's easing cycle, and persistent geopolitical uncertainties that drive long-term demand for gold [2] Market Analysis - The gold market experienced a sharp decline, reaching a high of 4907 before falling to 4655, with a recommendation to buy near the 4800 level during the pullback [1][2] - A cautious approach is advised due to the upcoming non-farm payroll data and the potential for one-sided market movements on Fridays, with a focus on buying near the 4600 support level [2][4] - The short-term resistance levels are identified around 4930-50, where light short positions may be considered if not breached [2][4] Trading Strategy - The strategy suggests buying on dips near 4600 and 4400, while being cautious with short positions unless the market shows clear signs of breaking below 4400 [4] - Emphasis is placed on managing positions carefully to mitigate liquidity risks, with a recommendation for gradual accumulation during price corrections [2]

Group 1 - Significant losses in silver-related options and structured products have led to substantial net value declines in public and private funds linked to precious metals, with some high-leverage products facing liquidation risks [1] - Cross-market arbitrage activities have intensified, as institutions exploit ETF discounts and the price differences between spot and futures, exacerbating short-term price volatility [1] - The strengthening of the US dollar, driven by hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve, is identified as one of the triggers for the silver price crash, which in turn reinforces the logic of a strong dollar, putting further pressure on non-US currencies and emerging market exchange rates, while cross-border capital flows into dollar-denominated assets [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current spot gold price is around $4910 per ounce, with a recent drop of 0.3% to $4924.89 after reaching a high of over 3% [1][5] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to a stronger US dollar and profit-taking by investors following a record price surge [1][5] - Geopolitical events, including upcoming US-Iran talks, have not provided sustained safe-haven support for gold, indicating a reassessment of geopolitical risk premiums in the market [1][5] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The daily chart shows a significant rebound in gold prices, filling the gap from Monday's opening, indicating a potential bullish reversal pattern [6] - A key resistance level is at $5100; if gold can stabilize above this level, it may open further upside potential [6] - The MACD indicator shows a bearish crossover, which may limit bullish momentum in the short term [6] Group 3: Short-term Trading Strategy for Gold - The gold market is experiencing a fierce battle between bulls and bears, with a recent rebound above $5000 [2][6] - Short-term trading recommendations suggest a focus on buying on dips, with support levels at $4855-$4820 and resistance levels at $4950-$4995 [2][6] - The trading strategy emphasizes a cautious approach, with a focus on the $4955-$5000 resistance and $4880-$4830 support levels [2][6] Group 4: Oil Market Analysis - WTI crude oil prices are stabilizing around $64 after significant volatility, showing signs of waning upward momentum compared to a five-month high [3][4] - The primary variables affecting the oil market are geopolitical tensions, particularly the upcoming US-Iran nuclear talks, which have eased immediate concerns about escalating tensions [3][4] - The oil market is in a tug-of-war phase, with geopolitical risk support on the downside and supply and dollar strength limiting upside potential [3][4] Group 5: Technical Analysis of Oil - The daily chart indicates that oil prices have ended a series of consecutive gains, with a large bearish candle forming [7] - The overall trend remains bullish, supported by the moving average system, with MACD indicating continued bullish momentum [7] - Short-term trading strategies suggest buying on dips, with resistance levels at $65.5-$66.5 and support levels at $62.5-$61.5 [4][7]

Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD exchange rate has been on a downward trend, influenced by multiple factors including Bank of England policy expectations, Federal Reserve dynamics, and U.S. economic data [1][3]. Group 1: Bank of England Policy - The upcoming Bank of England interest rate decision is a key factor pressuring the GBP, with market expectations leaning towards maintaining current policy in February [1][3]. - In December, the committee narrowly voted to cut rates by 25 basis points, but this adjustment is viewed as having limited long-term impact on the UK economy, failing to alter the short-term volatility of the GBP [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Dynamics - Recent hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve have led to a slowdown in expectations for U.S. rate cuts, supporting the dollar and consequently pressuring the GBP/USD exchange rate [3][4]. - The nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair candidate advocating for a reduction in the balance sheet and a more moderate rate cut strategy has influenced market liquidity expectations, reinforcing the dollar's strength [3]. Group 3: U.S. Economic Data - The mixed performance of U.S. economic data has introduced some volatility but has not changed the overall strong stance of the dollar [4]. - January's ADP private sector employment data showed an increase of only 22K jobs, significantly below the 48K market expectation, raising concerns about the U.S. labor market recovery [3]. - Conversely, the ISM services PMI for January remained robust at 53.8, exceeding the 53.5 market expectation, indicating resilience in the U.S. services sector and somewhat offsetting the negative impact of the weak employment data [3][4]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Capital Flows - Global financial market focus on major central bank policy shifts has heightened uncertainty, leading to increased risk aversion and capital flowing towards traditional safe-haven assets like the dollar, further suppressing the GBP [4]. - Prior gains in the GBP/USD exchange rate have prompted some investors to take profits ahead of key policy decisions, exacerbating downward pressure on the exchange rate [4].

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: February 3, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Under the expectation of the new Fed Chairman Waller being hawkish, the capital sentiment has shifted, and the easing of the Iran situation has weakened the risk premium. The precious metal prices have sharply corrected, and the non - ferrous sector has closed down across the board. The main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 24,515 yuan/ton, down 1,805 yuan, a decline of 6.86%, with capital outflows exceeding 200 million yuan. The current zinc price is in a tug - of - war between the support of low inventory and tight mine supply and the suppression of weak spot consumption. The ebbing of sentiment may make prices more vulnerable to the test of fundamental reality. In the short term, the capital sentiment fluctuates greatly, and Shanghai zinc still has room for correction [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Futures market: For Shanghai zinc 2602, the opening price was 25,775 yuan/ton, the closing price was 24,425 yuan/ton, the highest was 25,840 yuan/ton, the lowest was 24,215 yuan/ton, the decline was 1,650 yuan, the decline rate was 6.33%, the position was 7,920, and the position change was - 1,349; for Shanghai zinc 2603, the opening price was 25,735 yuan/ton, the closing price was 24,515 yuan/ton, the highest was 25,905 yuan/ton, the lowest was 24,245 yuan/ton, the decline was 1,805 yuan, the decline rate was 6.86%, the position was 91,209, and the position change was - 14,330; for Shanghai zinc 2604, the opening price was 25,790 yuan/ton, the closing price was 24,530 yuan/ton, the highest was 25,965 yuan/ton, the lowest was 24,295 yuan/ton, the decline was 1,800 yuan, the decline rate was 6.84%, the position was 75,900, and the position change was - 2,383 [7] - Supply and demand: Some mines have regular pre - Spring Festival overhauls, leading to a contraction in supply. The domestic zinc concentrate supply has continued to weaken. The zinc concentrates purchased by smelters earlier have arrived at ports one after another for replenishment, and the raw material stocking for February has basically been completed. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee has shown signs of stabilizing, remaining flat at 1,500 yuan/metal ton month - on - month. As the price declined, some downstream enterprises fixed prices at low points, and the spot premium increased slightly. However, downstream enterprises have gradually entered the holiday rhythm, and the improvement in trading volume is limited. The Shanghai market is at par with the 03 contract, the Tianjin market is at a discount of 50 yuan/ton compared with the Shanghai market, and the Guangdong market is at a discount of 15 yuan/ton to the 03 contract. On Monday, the social inventory of SMM's seven major regions increased by 0.85 million tons to 12.57 million tons, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 900 tons to 109,100 tons. Both the LME zinc and SHFE month - spreads maintained a Contango structure [7] 2. Industry News - On February 2, 2026, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 24,835 - 25,625 yuan/ton, and Shuangyan was traded between 24,885 - 25,715 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 24,765 - 25,555 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 30 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM average price, and there were few quotes against the market [8] - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream price of 0 zinc was around 24,815 - 25,585 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo quoted a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the 2603 contract and a premium of 20 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price. The mainstream in the Ningbo area quoted against the 2602 contract [8] - In the Tianjin market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots was between 24,750 - 25,160 yuan/ton, and Zijin was traded between 24,810 - 25,180 yuan/ton. The 1 zinc ingots were traded around 24,710 - 25,090 yuan/ton. Zijin quoted a discount of around 20 yuan/ton to the 2603 contract, Hu zinc was quoted around 26,060 yuan/ton, and 0 zinc ingots quoted a discount of 40 - 80 yuan/ton to the 2603 contract. The Tianjin market was at a discount of around 50 yuan/ton compared with the Shanghai market [8] - In Guangdong, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was between 24,810 - 25,630 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands in Guangdong quoted a discount of 15 yuan/ton to the 2603 contract, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong remained. Today, the holders of goods quoted a discount of 25 - a premium of 5 yuan/ton for Qilin, Feilong, Lan zinc, etc. [8][9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides data on the weekly inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots (in million tons), LME zinc inventory (in tons), the price trends of zinc in two markets, and SHFE month - spreads, with data sources including Wind and SMM, as well as the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [13][15]

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a significant decline, with major indices dropping over 2% and more than 4,600 stocks in the red, primarily driven by a sell-off in commodities and hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Analysis - The sell-off in commodities was triggered by a stronger dollar, which diminished the attractiveness of precious metals and energy stocks, leading to substantial profit-taking in previously high-performing resource stocks [3][4] - Semiconductor stocks faced declines, with companies like Zhaoyi Innovation hitting the limit down, attributed to a retreat from AI hype and some companies failing to meet earnings expectations [4] - Despite the overall market downturn, certain sectors like electric grid equipment and liquor stocks showed resilience, supported by genuine demand and seasonal consumption trends [3][4] Group 2: Sector Performance - Electric grid equipment stocks surged due to explosive demand for AI computing power and significant domestic investment plans, with orders extending into the next year, indicating strong policy and demand support [4] - Liquor stocks remained stable, benefiting from the upcoming Spring Festival consumption peak and serving as a safe haven for investors amid market volatility [4][5] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors holding resource and semiconductor stocks are advised against panic selling, especially for undervalued leaders, as short-term adjustments do not alter long-term fundamentals [6] - Those invested in electric grid equipment and liquor stocks should maintain their positions unless there is a significant volume drop or a change in market conditions [6] - For investors looking to enter the market, it is recommended to focus on undervalued stocks in the electric grid sector and those with expected earnings growth in the liquor sector, employing a cautious approach with small positions and stop-loss measures [6]

Group 1 - The core event in the precious metals market on January 29 was a dramatic spike and subsequent crash in gold and silver prices, with gold reaching a historic high of $5600 per ounce before plummeting by $380 in just 28 minutes, and silver experiencing a drop of over 31%, marking its worst performance since 1980 [2] Group 2 - The first trigger was a sudden hawkish sentiment from the Federal Reserve, with rumors suggesting the potential appointment of a more hawkish key figure, leading to a reassessment of interest rate expectations and a decline in gold's attractiveness [4] Group 3 - The second force was algorithmic trading and a chain reaction of stop-loss orders, where automated trading systems exacerbated the market's decline by triggering sell-offs as prices fell below critical thresholds [6] Group 4 - The third factor was a sudden rebound in the US dollar index, which put additional pressure on precious metals prices due to the inverse relationship between the dollar's strength and the prices of gold and silver [8] Group 5 - There was a notable shift in institutional holdings, with some large institutions reducing their gold positions while increasing their silver positions, indicating a strategic adjustment rather than a reactive response to market conditions [10] Group 6 - From a technical perspective, key support levels for gold and silver were identified, with short-term, medium-term, and long-term support levels outlined, emphasizing the importance of position management in the face of volatility [12]