转自：新华财经 新华财经北京2月6日电 现货黄金在2月5日一度站上每盎司5000美元关口，但很快便再次受阻回落，截 至今日发稿，现货黄金已再度跌下每盎司4900美元。金价技术上开启了二次探底过程，其过程将更加复 杂且反复。 （作者系北京黄金经济发展研究中心研究团队） 【黄金时间】是由新华财经与中国黄金报社共同打造的一档聚焦黄金珠宝市场的专题栏目，内容全面覆 盖黄金珠宝行业的政策动态、投资资讯、风险分析等，提供权威、专业、全面的黄金珠宝领域金融信息 服务。新华财经是新华社承建的国家金融信息平台。 特朗普提名凯文·沃什为新的美联储主席之后，市场对其鹰派作风的预期，推动美元指数大幅反弹，金 银均大幅下挫。此外，交易所频频提高交易保证金增加了市场投资者的交易资金成本，短期资金离场明 显。美伊双方目前正在谈判，整体紧张局面暂时并未加剧。 编辑：郭洲洋 综合来看，虽然长期黄金市场牛市根基没有改变，但是，短期内市场对美联储鹰派的预期、交易所提高 保证金的限制、市场断崖式下跌之后的情绪恢复过程等因素，均不利于新一轮行情的启动。 从技术方面来看，依据金价中、长期走势形态来分析，近期的急速回落，暂时判定为换挡期的正常降 速。5日 ...

【潮起潮落皆为势，低吸高抛方为智】 势者，顺之则昌，逆之则亡；金市沉浮，唯择势者胜。 周四晚间黄金上演冲高回落大跳水的行情，触及4801后冲高4907开始跳水，隔夜来到4655。美盘前公开给出回落4800附近直接多，行情回落两次触及反弹都 有不错的利润。隔夜实战4690精准抄底多，目前已经来到了4760，一大早迎来开门红，早起的鸟儿有虫吃。 回落4600附近多，深度回撤4400附近还是多 反弹4930-50区域不破轻仓试空 意外关注实时走势分析 昨日晚间这波暴跌主要是因为纳斯达克暴跌引发的市场流动性危机，叠加美联储鹰派预期、获利了结等等因素。今日晚间有非农数据，叠加周五行情易出单 边、变数较多，操作上更需谨慎对待。 日内还是回落做多为主，之前有说过这两日会出一个低点倒车接人，走势基本上符合预期。一直提醒大家不回调坚决不做多，谨慎是有原因的。下方支撑关 注4600附近，接近不破直接多，站稳这里黄金牛市趋势延续，上方目标剑指4800--4900-5000。下方跌破4400，空头趋势才会进一步延续。上方阻力短期关注 4930-50区域，不破轻仓试空。昨日的回撤大概率不会快速消化，黄金上涨之路或坎坷，切勿盲目追涨杀跌 ...

Group 1 - Significant losses in silver-related options and structured products have led to substantial net value declines in public and private funds linked to precious metals, with some high-leverage products facing liquidation risks [1] - Cross-market arbitrage activities have intensified, as institutions exploit ETF discounts and the price differences between spot and futures, exacerbating short-term price volatility [1] - The strengthening of the US dollar, driven by hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve, is identified as one of the triggers for the silver price crash, which in turn reinforces the logic of a strong dollar, putting further pressure on non-US currencies and emerging market exchange rates, while cross-border capital flows into dollar-denominated assets [1]

黄金最新行情趋势分析： 2月5日，黄金消息面解析：周四（北京时间2月5日）欧市早盘，现货黄金交投于4910美元/盎司附近， 金价周三冲高回落，受美元指数走强至一周高位附近，以及投资者在近期创纪录涨势后选择获利了结的 双重影响；金价周三冲高回落，现货黄金价格最终收跌0.3%，报每盎司4924.89美元，盘中一度上涨超 过3%。此次回调主要受美元指数走强至一周高位附近以及投资者在近期创纪录涨势后选择获利了结的 双重影响。地缘政治层面，尽管当日有包括美伊即将举行会谈、各大国领导人通话等一系列重要外交互 动，但这些事件并未为金价提供持续的避险支撑，表明市场正在重新评估地缘风险溢价。 黄金技术面分析：从黄金日线图看，昨日金价出现大幅反扑，一举补回了周一开盘的跳空缺口，这是短 期相当不错的K线底部形态，而后市的关键在于能否突破站稳5100大关，一旦能够重回均线组的上方， 那么就有机会进一步打开上方的空间。不过要注意的是，现阶段MACD指标上方形成死叉，这可能会一 定程度上限制多头的力度。 从黄金4小时图看，在创下4430附近的多日低点之后，金价终于迎来了连续性反弹，目前结构上再次形 成七连阳，意味着短期的多空争夺再次变得 ...

回顾去年12月，该委员会曾以5比4的微弱优势决定下调利率25个基点，不过市场普遍认为，这一调整对 英国经济长期基本面的影响有限，难以改变英镑的短期波动逻辑。在政策不确定性尚未消散前，资金趋 于谨慎，英镑买盘动力不足，间接推动英镑兑美元汇率走弱。 美联储相关动态及美元走强则从另一侧对汇率形成压制。近期美联储释放鹰派信号，市场对美国降息的 预期持续放缓，美元指数获得支撑，进而导致英镑兑美元被动贬值。 近期英镑兑美元汇率呈现持续下行态势，已连续两个交易日扩大跌幅，周四亚洲时段交投于1.3620附 近。 此次汇率走弱并非单一因素驱动，而是英国央行政策预期、美联储政策动态及美国经济数据等多重力量 共同作用的结果，短期市场波动仍将受关键事件指引。 英国央行利率决议的临近成为压制英镑的核心因素之一。市场普遍预期，英国央行货币政策委员会将在 2月维持现有政策不变。 受官方就业数据推迟发布影响，此次ADP数据的参考价值有所提升，短暂引发市场对美国就业市场复苏 动能的担忧。但同期公布的ISM服务PMI数据表现亮眼，1月份维持在53.8，高于53.5的市场预期，印证 了美国服务行业的韧性，一定程度上抵消了就业数据疲软带来的负面影响 ...

行业 锌期货日报 日期 2026 年 2 月 3 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2602 | 25775 | 24425 | 25840 | 24215 | -1650 | -6.33 | 7920 | -1349 | | 沪锌 | 2603 | 25735 | 24515 | 25905 | 24245 | -1805 | -6.86 | 91209 | -14330 | | 沪锌 | 2604 | 25790 | 24530 | 25965 | 24295 | -1 ...

再看半导体板块，兆易创新跌停，江波龙跌超10%，其实是前期AI炒作热度退潮，加上部分公司业绩预 期没跟上，资金暂时撤离。但帮主得说句实在的，半导体的产业趋势没坏，只是短期波动，就像2023年 那波调整，跌下去之后很快又反弹回来，关键看核心公司的订单和技术突破。 而电网设备为啥能逆势狂飙？这里藏着真需求！AI算力需求爆炸，变压器成了"算力心脏"，北美电荒让 中国电网设备成了香饽饽，加上国内4万亿的电网投资规划，订单都排到后年了，这种有政策+需求双 重支撑的板块，自然能扛住市场下跌。白酒股表现坚挺也不意外，春节消费旺季要来了，加上资金避险 需求，这类刚需品种总能稳住阵脚，这和2019年春节前的行情如出一辙。 今天盘面属实让人揪心，三大指数全跌超2%，4600多只个股绿油油一片，资源股跌停板上堆着几百亿 封单，手里持仓的朋友是不是越看越慌，甚至想割肉离场？ 但别急着emo，盘面里藏着大反差——电网设备10多股涨停，白酒股也扛住了下跌，这到底是为啥？咱 们先把下跌的账算明白。核心就是大宗商品被集体抛售，美联储鹰派预期越来越强，美元走强让贵金 属、油气这些品种失了吸引力，加上前期资源股涨得太猛，获利盘扎堆兑现，湖南白银 ...

Group 1 - The core event in the precious metals market on January 29 was a dramatic spike and subsequent crash in gold and silver prices, with gold reaching a historic high of $5600 per ounce before plummeting by $380 in just 28 minutes, and silver experiencing a drop of over 31%, marking its worst performance since 1980 [2] Group 2 - The first trigger was a sudden hawkish sentiment from the Federal Reserve, with rumors suggesting the potential appointment of a more hawkish key figure, leading to a reassessment of interest rate expectations and a decline in gold's attractiveness [4] Group 3 - The second force was algorithmic trading and a chain reaction of stop-loss orders, where automated trading systems exacerbated the market's decline by triggering sell-offs as prices fell below critical thresholds [6] Group 4 - The third factor was a sudden rebound in the US dollar index, which put additional pressure on precious metals prices due to the inverse relationship between the dollar's strength and the prices of gold and silver [8] Group 5 - There was a notable shift in institutional holdings, with some large institutions reducing their gold positions while increasing their silver positions, indicating a strategic adjustment rather than a reactive response to market conditions [10] Group 6 - From a technical perspective, key support levels for gold and silver were identified, with short-term, medium-term, and long-term support levels outlined, emphasizing the importance of position management in the face of volatility [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomically, Fed officials have released hawkish expectations, with the probability of a 25bp rate cut in December dropping to around 50%. The Fed may start a bond - buying program in December, and the US government shutdown has ended [3]. - Industrially, Philippine nickel ore prices are firm while Indonesian ore prices have slightly weakened. Nickel - iron prices have fallen due to weak stainless - steel consumption, and the price of nickel sulfate has declined. Pure - nickel spot trading is good [3]. - In the later stage, cost support is strong, and the room for a sharp decline in nickel prices is limited. The cost of nickel ore is likely to remain high, but the fundamentals are difficult to improve. However, nickel prices are at the absolute bottom of the range, waiting for a recovery in macro - expectations [3][12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Variety | 2025/11/14 | 2025/11/7 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Nickel | 117,080 | 119,440 | - 2,360 | Yuan/ton | | LME Nickel | 14,891 | 15,060 | - 169 | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 252,090 | 253,104 | - 1,014 | tons | | SHFE Inventory | 35,027 | 32,634 | + 2,393 | tons | | Jinchuan Nickel Premium | 3,900 | 3,100 | + 800 | Yuan/ton | | Russian Nickel Premium | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | High - Nickel Pig Iron Average Price | 924 | 933 | - 9 | Yuan/nickel point | | Stainless - Steel Inventory | 888,000 | 863,000 | + 25,000 | tons | [4] 3.2 Industry Situation - **Nickel Ore**: Philippine 1.5% laterite nickel ore FOB price is stable at $50/wet ton, and Indonesian 1.5% laterite nickel ore domestic FOB price is at $38.55/wet ton. Indonesia may limit nickel production [6]. - **Pure Nickel**: In October, the national refined - nickel production was 35,900 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 17.06% and 0.84% respectively. The import from Russia increased significantly in September, while that from Norway decreased. The export scale increased year - on - year [7]. - **Nickel Iron**: The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) dropped. In October, China's nickel - iron production increased month - on - month, and Indonesia's production increased slightly year - on - year and month - on - month. The inventory structure changed, and the import from Indonesia increased [7][8]. - **Stainless Steel**: In October, China's 300 - series stainless - steel production increased slightly, and Indonesia's production also increased slightly. The expected production in November shows little change. The real - estate market is sluggish, restricting nickel - iron demand, but the decline in nickel - iron prices may slow down [9]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased, and the production increased year - on - year and month - on - month in October. The profit margins of some production processes improved [10]. - **New Energy**: From November 1 - 9, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. Different regions have different subsidy policies [10]. - **Inventory**: The current six - place social inventory of pure nickel increased, SHFE inventory increased, LME inventory decreased, and the total inventory of the two major exchanges increased [11]. 3.3 Industry News - Indonesia will adjust nickel production in 2026 and may cut production in the work plan and cost budget [13]. - The second - phase project of Guangxi Feinan will start on November 18, with a designed production capacity of 20,000 metal tons/year of electrowon nickel and nickel sulfate [13]. - Indonesia announced the domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore for the second phase of November, which decreased by about 0.51% compared with the first phase [13]. 3.4 Related Charts The report includes charts on the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums, nickel futures inventory, high - nickel iron prices, nickel - ore port inventory, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventory [15][18][20][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global central bank meetings are approaching, and the Fed has been issuing hawkish signals. Mining supply disruptions and demand resilience support copper prices, but high supply elasticity and inventory accumulation restrict the upside space. In the short term, there is no obvious single - sided driver for copper, and it awaits more macro - level guidance [6]. - Overall, under the Fed's hawkish expectations, the US dollar index rebounds, putting pressure on copper prices. Global copper inventory accumulation restricts the upward space for copper. However, the expectation of stockpiling for the peak season and tight copper ore supply provide support for the downside of copper. Copper is in a state of oscillatory consolidation, with a stalemate between bulls and bears. Technically, the triangular consolidation of copper is nearing its end, and it is about to break out and move in a certain direction [6][75]. - In the short term, new entrants are advised to wait for the macro - situation to be clarified and then try to go long on dips around 77,500 - 78,000. Enterprises should arrange sell - hedging at high prices to lock in reasonable profits. In the long term, as an important strategic resource in the Sino - US game and an important alternative asset allocation for precious metals, with tight copper concentrate supply and the explosion of green copper demand, copper is bullish [6][75]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Macroeconomic - **Global Central Bank and US Economy**: Before Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting, some Fed officials showed a negative attitude towards a rate cut next month. The US 8 - month Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value reached 53.3, the highest since May 2022. The US dollar index rose 0.8% compared to last Friday, reaching 98.64. As of August 22, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in September dropped significantly to 75% from the previous 95%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged was 25%. The possibility of an aggressive 50 - basis - point rate cut in September disappeared [11]. - **China's Economic Situation**: In August, the LPR remained unchanged for the fourth consecutive month, with the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR at 3% and 3.5% respectively. The Fed's delay in rate cuts restricts China's monetary policy space. The Sino - US interest rate spread is - 2.54%, slightly narrowing compared to last week. In the short - term domestic policy vacuum period, before the September 3 military parade, the A - share market is booming, siphoning market funds, and the anti - involution sentiment in the commodity market has subsided [14]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - **Copper Concentrate Supply**: Supply disruptions have occurred. Codelco expects a 33,000 - metric - ton reduction in refined copper production in 2025 due to an accident at the El Teniente copper mine. Zambia's copper production in the second quarter decreased, putting its goal of increasing production to 1 million tons this year at risk. China's copper concentrate imports in July were 2.56 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.25%. As of August 22, the SMM imported copper concentrate index (weekly) dropped to - 41.15 dollars per ton, and the copper concentrate TC decreased to - 41.3 dollars per ton [36]. - **Scrap Copper Supply**: The scrap copper market is in short supply, and the price difference between refined and scrap copper has narrowed. As of August 22, the price difference was 1,084 yuan per ton. From January to June, the domestic supply of scrap copper increased by 611,300 tons. In July, the import of copper scrap and waste was 190,100 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.73% [40]. - **Refined Copper Supply**: In July, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1743 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.21%. It is expected that the domestic electrolytic copper production in August will be 1.1683 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.51%. The ICSG reported that from January to June 2025, the global copper market had a total supply surplus of 251,000 tons [45]. 3.2.2 Demand - **Traditional Downstream Demand**: From July to August, affected by high temperatures and floods, it was the traditional off - season for terminal consumption. The operating rates of downstream copper processing enterprises declined. In July, the operating rate of copper product enterprises was 61.58%, and the output of copper products was 2.1694 million tons [51]. - **Terminal Demand in Power and New Energy Vehicles**: From January to June, power grid project investment increased by 14.6% year - on - year, and new photovoltaic installations increased by 107.07% year - on - year. In July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.243 million and 1.262 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 26.3% and 27.4% [55]. 3.3 Summary and Outlook - **Market Situation**: The short - term core contradiction in copper supply and demand is the strong expectation of inventory reduction during the off - peak to peak season transition versus the weak reality of inventory accumulation due to the short - term supply glut. In the medium term, it is the tight copper concentrate supply and low processing fees versus the high elasticity of smelting supply. In the long term, it is the concern about the weak global economy due to the escalation of Sino - US confrontation versus the explosion of green copper demand in power and new energy [75]. - **Price Trend and Strategy**: Copper is oscillating and consolidating, and a breakthrough is imminent. Short - term new entrants are advised to wait for the macro - situation to be clear and then go long on dips around 77,500 - 78,000. Enterprises should arrange sell - hedging at high prices. In the long term, copper is bullish [6][75].