1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomically, Fed officials have released hawkish expectations, with the probability of a 25bp rate cut in December dropping to around 50%. The Fed may start a bond - buying program in December, and the US government shutdown has ended [3]. - Industrially, Philippine nickel ore prices are firm while Indonesian ore prices have slightly weakened. Nickel - iron prices have fallen due to weak stainless - steel consumption, and the price of nickel sulfate has declined. Pure - nickel spot trading is good [3]. - In the later stage, cost support is strong, and the room for a sharp decline in nickel prices is limited. The cost of nickel ore is likely to remain high, but the fundamentals are difficult to improve. However, nickel prices are at the absolute bottom of the range, waiting for a recovery in macro - expectations [3][12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Variety | 2025/11/14 | 2025/11/7 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Nickel | 117,080 | 119,440 | - 2,360 | Yuan/ton | | LME Nickel | 14,891 | 15,060 | - 169 | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 252,090 | 253,104 | - 1,014 | tons | | SHFE Inventory | 35,027 | 32,634 | + 2,393 | tons | | Jinchuan Nickel Premium | 3,900 | 3,100 | + 800 | Yuan/ton | | Russian Nickel Premium | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | High - Nickel Pig Iron Average Price | 924 | 933 | - 9 | Yuan/nickel point | | Stainless - Steel Inventory | 888,000 | 863,000 | + 25,000 | tons | [4] 3.2 Industry Situation - **Nickel Ore**: Philippine 1.5% laterite nickel ore FOB price is stable at $50/wet ton, and Indonesian 1.5% laterite nickel ore domestic FOB price is at $38.55/wet ton. Indonesia may limit nickel production [6]. - **Pure Nickel**: In October, the national refined - nickel production was 35,900 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 17.06% and 0.84% respectively. The import from Russia increased significantly in September, while that from Norway decreased. The export scale increased year - on - year [7]. - **Nickel Iron**: The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) dropped. In October, China's nickel - iron production increased month - on - month, and Indonesia's production increased slightly year - on - year and month - on - month. The inventory structure changed, and the import from Indonesia increased [7][8]. - **Stainless Steel**: In October, China's 300 - series stainless - steel production increased slightly, and Indonesia's production also increased slightly. The expected production in November shows little change. The real - estate market is sluggish, restricting nickel - iron demand, but the decline in nickel - iron prices may slow down [9]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased, and the production increased year - on - year and month - on - month in October. The profit margins of some production processes improved [10]. - **New Energy**: From November 1 - 9, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. Different regions have different subsidy policies [10]. - **Inventory**: The current six - place social inventory of pure nickel increased, SHFE inventory increased, LME inventory decreased, and the total inventory of the two major exchanges increased [11]. 3.3 Industry News - Indonesia will adjust nickel production in 2026 and may cut production in the work plan and cost budget [13]. - The second - phase project of Guangxi Feinan will start on November 18, with a designed production capacity of 20,000 metal tons/year of electrowon nickel and nickel sulfate [13]. - Indonesia announced the domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore for the second phase of November, which decreased by about 0.51% compared with the first phase [13]. 3.4 Related Charts The report includes charts on the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums, nickel futures inventory, high - nickel iron prices, nickel - ore port inventory, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventory [15][18][20][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global central bank meetings are approaching, and the Fed has been issuing hawkish signals. Mining supply disruptions and demand resilience support copper prices, but high supply elasticity and inventory accumulation restrict the upside space. In the short term, there is no obvious single - sided driver for copper, and it awaits more macro - level guidance [6]. - Overall, under the Fed's hawkish expectations, the US dollar index rebounds, putting pressure on copper prices. Global copper inventory accumulation restricts the upward space for copper. However, the expectation of stockpiling for the peak season and tight copper ore supply provide support for the downside of copper. Copper is in a state of oscillatory consolidation, with a stalemate between bulls and bears. Technically, the triangular consolidation of copper is nearing its end, and it is about to break out and move in a certain direction [6][75]. - In the short term, new entrants are advised to wait for the macro - situation to be clarified and then try to go long on dips around 77,500 - 78,000. Enterprises should arrange sell - hedging at high prices to lock in reasonable profits. In the long term, as an important strategic resource in the Sino - US game and an important alternative asset allocation for precious metals, with tight copper concentrate supply and the explosion of green copper demand, copper is bullish [6][75]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Macroeconomic - **Global Central Bank and US Economy**: Before Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting, some Fed officials showed a negative attitude towards a rate cut next month. The US 8 - month Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value reached 53.3, the highest since May 2022. The US dollar index rose 0.8% compared to last Friday, reaching 98.64. As of August 22, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in September dropped significantly to 75% from the previous 95%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged was 25%. The possibility of an aggressive 50 - basis - point rate cut in September disappeared [11]. - **China's Economic Situation**: In August, the LPR remained unchanged for the fourth consecutive month, with the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR at 3% and 3.5% respectively. The Fed's delay in rate cuts restricts China's monetary policy space. The Sino - US interest rate spread is - 2.54%, slightly narrowing compared to last week. In the short - term domestic policy vacuum period, before the September 3 military parade, the A - share market is booming, siphoning market funds, and the anti - involution sentiment in the commodity market has subsided [14]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - **Copper Concentrate Supply**: Supply disruptions have occurred. Codelco expects a 33,000 - metric - ton reduction in refined copper production in 2025 due to an accident at the El Teniente copper mine. Zambia's copper production in the second quarter decreased, putting its goal of increasing production to 1 million tons this year at risk. China's copper concentrate imports in July were 2.56 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.25%. As of August 22, the SMM imported copper concentrate index (weekly) dropped to - 41.15 dollars per ton, and the copper concentrate TC decreased to - 41.3 dollars per ton [36]. - **Scrap Copper Supply**: The scrap copper market is in short supply, and the price difference between refined and scrap copper has narrowed. As of August 22, the price difference was 1,084 yuan per ton. From January to June, the domestic supply of scrap copper increased by 611,300 tons. In July, the import of copper scrap and waste was 190,100 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.73% [40]. - **Refined Copper Supply**: In July, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1743 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.21%. It is expected that the domestic electrolytic copper production in August will be 1.1683 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.51%. The ICSG reported that from January to June 2025, the global copper market had a total supply surplus of 251,000 tons [45]. 3.2.2 Demand - **Traditional Downstream Demand**: From July to August, affected by high temperatures and floods, it was the traditional off - season for terminal consumption. The operating rates of downstream copper processing enterprises declined. In July, the operating rate of copper product enterprises was 61.58%, and the output of copper products was 2.1694 million tons [51]. - **Terminal Demand in Power and New Energy Vehicles**: From January to June, power grid project investment increased by 14.6% year - on - year, and new photovoltaic installations increased by 107.07% year - on - year. In July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.243 million and 1.262 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 26.3% and 27.4% [55]. 3.3 Summary and Outlook - **Market Situation**: The short - term core contradiction in copper supply and demand is the strong expectation of inventory reduction during the off - peak to peak season transition versus the weak reality of inventory accumulation due to the short - term supply glut. In the medium term, it is the tight copper concentrate supply and low processing fees versus the high elasticity of smelting supply. In the long term, it is the concern about the weak global economy due to the escalation of Sino - US confrontation versus the explosion of green copper demand in power and new energy [75]. - **Price Trend and Strategy**: Copper is oscillating and consolidating, and a breakthrough is imminent. Short - term new entrants are advised to wait for the macro - situation to be clear and then go long on dips around 77,500 - 78,000. Enterprises should arrange sell - hedging at high prices. In the long term, copper is bullish [6][75].