Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating Core Viewpoint - The short - term view of the steel price is mainly oscillating on the strong side, with the supply contraction and inventory reduction providing support for a rebound, but the weak demand restricting the upward height. In the medium - term, the demand recovery situation needs to be closely monitored. If the demand continues to pick up, the steel price is expected to start a trend - based rebound; if the demand remains weak, the steel price will maintain an oscillating pattern [6] Summary by Directory Market Quotes Review - Futures price: The open interest of the main rebar contract decreased by 75,393 lots on Tuesday, and the trading volume shrank compared with the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 477,403 lots. In terms of the moving average, it short - term broke below the 5 - day moving average of 3128, and the daily line was above the medium - term 30 - day moving average of 3101 and the 60 - day moving average of 3115, showing short - term weakness and medium - term strength [1] - Spot price: The mainstream area's spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3,240 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan compared with the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 119 yuan/ton to the spot price [2] Fundamental Data - Supply - demand situation: - Supply side: In the week of March 26, 2026, the rebar output was 1.9787 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 54,600 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 295,600 tons. The output has been continuously declining, and the steel mills are actively reducing production due to profit pressure and high inventory [3] - Demand side: In the week of March 26, 2026, the current apparent demand was 2.2537 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 172,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 199,600 tons. The weekly demand has recovered, but it is still weak year - on - year, and the demand repair strength is insufficient [3] - Inventory side: The social inventory was 6.4275 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 104,600 tons; the steel mill inventory was 2.1916 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 170,400 tons; the total inventory was 8.6191 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 275,000 tons. Although the inventory has been decreasing, it is still about 5% higher year - on - year, and the inventory pressure still exists [3] - Cost and profit: The steel price valuation is at a low level, and geopolitical factors have pushed up oil prices and shipping costs, providing support for commodity prices [4] - Macroeconomic aspect: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress held on March 5, 2026, released positive signals. The government work report proposed measures such as issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, arranging 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, and implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, which enhanced the market's expectation of infrastructure and real estate support and provided phased support to the sentiment [4] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The steel mills are actively reducing production, the supply side has significantly shrunk, the inventory has been continuously reduced, the inventory - to - sales ratio has improved, and the steel price has bottom support [5] - Bearish factors: The terminal demand is weak year - on - year, the recovery is less than expected, the total inventory is still increasing year - on - year, and the confidence of traders is insufficient, which restricts the upward height of the steel price [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "shockingly bullish" rating for the rebar market [1] Core View of the Report - The main rebar contract is expected to run with a shockingly bullish trend. With the significant increase in coking coal and coke prices, the cost support for rebar has strengthened. In the short and medium term, the moving averages are showing an upward trend, breaking through the 5 - day, 30 - day, and 60 - day moving averages. It will mainly follow the spot price fluctuations to repair the basis. As it enters the peak season, the fundamentals are expected to continue the shockingly bullish trend, supported by demand recovery and inventory reduction. Due to geopolitical events affecting costs and export expectations, rebar prices are likely to maintain a shockingly bullish pattern. Continued attention should be paid to the downstream resumption of work progress and inventory reduction speed [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The rebar main contract reduced its open interest by 35,832 lots on Monday, and the trading volume increased compared to the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 1,011,355 lots. In terms of the daily moving average, it short - term broke through the 5 - day moving average of 3140, and the daily line is above the medium - term 30 - day moving average of 3093 and the 60 - day moving average of 3115, indicating that the short - and medium - term trends are strengthening [1] - Spot price: The mainstream area's spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar is 3250 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures price is at a discount of 96 yuan/ton to the spot price [2] Fundamental Data - Supply and demand situation: - Supply side: In the week of March 19, 2026, the rebar output was 2.0333 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 80,300 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 228,800 tons. The steel mill's resumption of production is at a moderate pace, and the year - on - year contraction is obvious, so the supply side exerts limited pressure on prices [3] - Demand side: In the week of March 19, 2026, the current apparent demand was 2.0809 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 312,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 349,100 tons. Seasonal resumption of work drives the rebound of apparent demand, but it is still weak year - on - year. The intensity of demand recovery is the core variable in the follow - up [3] - Inventory side: Social inventory is 6.5321 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13,400 tons, starting to have a slight inventory reduction. Steel mill inventory is 2.362 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34,200 tons, also starting to reduce inventory. The total inventory is 8.8941 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 47,600 tons, entering the weekly inventory reduction for the first time, which verifies the start of demand. However, the absolute inventory and inventory - to - sales ratio are still at a high level, suppressing the upward space of prices [3] - Cost and profit: The rebar price valuation is at a low level. Geopolitical factors drive up oil prices and shipping costs, providing support for commodity prices [3] - Macroeconomic aspect: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress held on March 5, 2026, sent positive signals. The government work report proposed measures such as "issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds", "arranging 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds", and "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy" to stabilize growth. The market's expectation of infrastructure and real estate support has increased, and the sentiment has received phased support [5] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Low rebar price valuation, geopolitical factors driving up costs, policy support expectations, implementation of steel mill production cuts, and cost support repair [6] - Bearish factors: Continued sluggish terminal demand, weakening cost support, continuous inventory accumulation, slowdown in inventory reduction speed, and bearish capital position structure [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoint The main contract of rebar is in a narrow - range oscillation. The medium - term trend is strengthening according to the moving average, standing above the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It will mainly follow the spot price to repair the basis. In the fundamental aspect, as it enters the peak season, it is expected to continue the oscillatory and moderately strong operation. The current situation of demand recovery and inventory reduction supports the sentiment, and geopolitical events affect cost changes and export expectations. The rebar price is likely to maintain an oscillatory and moderately strong pattern. It is necessary to continuously monitor the downstream resumption progress and inventory reduction speed [6]. Summary by Directory Market Review - **Futures Price**: On Friday, the open interest of the main rebar contract decreased by 62,026 lots. The trading volume increased compared with the previous trading day, reaching 724,139 lots. In terms of the moving average, it briefly fell below the 5 - day moving average of 3137, but the daily line is above the medium - term 30 - day moving average of 3092 and 60 - day moving average of 3113, indicating a strengthening medium - term trend [1]. - **Spot Price**: The mainstream spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar is 3,240 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [1]. - **Basis**: The futures price is at a discount of 117 yuan/ton to the spot price [2]. Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand Situation**: In the week of March 19, 2026, rebar production was 2.0333 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 80,300 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 228,800 tons. The steel mill's resumption of production is moderate, and the supply pressure on prices is limited. The current apparent demand was 2.0809 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 312,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 349,100 tons. Seasonal resumption of work drives the rebound of apparent demand, but it is still weak year - on - year. Social inventory was 6.5321 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13,400 tons; steel mill inventory was 2.362 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34,200 tons; the total inventory was 8.8941 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 47,600 tons, entering the weekly inventory reduction phase, which verifies the start of demand. However, the absolute inventory and inventory - to - sales ratio are still high, suppressing the upward space of prices [3]. - **Cost and Profit**: The rebar price valuation is at a low level. Geopolitical factors drive up oil prices and shipping costs, providing support for commodity prices [3]. - **Macroeconomic Aspect**: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress held on March 5, 2026, released positive signals. The government work report proposed measures such as issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, arranging 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, and implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. The market's expectation of infrastructure and real estate support has increased, and the sentiment has received phased support [5]. Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Low rebar price valuation, geopolitical factors driving up costs, policy support expectations, implementation of steel mill production cuts, and cost support repair [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Persistent weak terminal demand, weakening cost support, continuous inventory accumulation, slowdown in inventory reduction speed, and bearish capital position structure [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoint The overall trend of the rebar main contract is weakly volatile, but the mid - term shows strength on the daily moving average. It is expected to follow the spot price to repair the basis. The fundamentals are in the peak season, and the rebar price is likely to maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern. Attention should be paid to the downstream resumption progress and de - stocking speed [6]. Summary by Directory Market Review - The rebar main contract on Thursday had a position reduction of 65,665 lots, and the trading volume shrank compared to the previous trading day, with 648,797 lots. The short - term moving average fell below the 5 - day moving average of 3,141, but the daily line was above the mid - term 30 - day moving average of 3,093 and the 60 - day moving average of 3,113, indicating mid - term strengthening [1]. - The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream area was 3,260 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - The futures were at a discount of 125 yuan/ton to the spot [2]. Fundamental Data - Supply: In the week of March 19, 2026, the rebar production was 2.0333 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 80,300 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 228,800 tons. The steel mill resumption rhythm was moderate, and the supply pressure on prices was limited [3]. - Demand: In the week of March 19, 2026, the current apparent demand was 2.0809 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 312,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 349,100 tons. Seasonal resumption drove the rebound of apparent demand, but it was still weak year - on - year. The intensity of demand recovery was the core variable [3]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 6.5321 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13,400 tons; steel mill inventory was 2.362 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34,200 tons; total inventory was 8.8941 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 47,600 tons, entering weekly de - stocking for the first time. However, the absolute inventory and inventory - to - sales ratio were still high, suppressing the upward price space [3]. - Cost and profit: The steel price valuation was at a low level. Geopolitical factors pushed up oil prices and shipping costs, supporting commodity prices [3]. - Macroeconomic aspect: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress on March 5, 2026, released positive signals. The government work report proposed measures such as issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, arranging 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, and implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. Market expectations for infrastructure and real estate support increased, and sentiment was supported [5]. Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Low steel price valuation, geopolitical factors pushing up costs, policy support expectations, implementation of steel mill production cuts, and cost support repair [6]. - Bearish factors: Persistent weak terminal demand, weakening cost support, continuous inventory accumulation, slow de - stocking speed, and bearish capital position structure [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The main contract of rebar showed a pattern of rising and then falling today. Affected by the decline and adjustment of energy and chemical products, combined with the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision at 2:00 am tomorrow, funds left the market for risk aversion. The short - and medium - term moving averages strengthened, standing above the 5 - day, 30 - day, and 60 - day moving averages. It is expected to continue to operate in a volatile and slightly stronger manner, but the upward space depends on the actual performance of peak - season demand, whether the inventory can be destocked, and changes in the cost side [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: On Wednesday, the open interest of the main rebar contract decreased by 34,625 lots, and the trading volume increased compared with the previous trading day, reaching 860,500 lots. In terms of the moving average, in the short - term, it broke through the 5 - day moving average of 3,138, and in the medium - term, it was near the 30 - day moving average of 3,093 and the 60 - day moving average of 3,110. The short - and medium - term trends strengthened [1]. - Spot price: The mainstream spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3,260 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan increase compared with the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 120 yuan/ton to the spot price [2]. Fundamental Data - Supply - demand situation: - Supply side: In the week of March 13, 2026, the rebar production was 1.953 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 219,900 tons. There was a short - term resumption of production, but the overall trend was still shrinking. The weekly resumption of production was a phased restart, and the production was still lower year - on - year. The supply side did not show full - scale relaxation [3]. - Demand side: In the week of March 13, 2026, the current apparent demand was 1.7681 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 785,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 564,000 tons. It was a pulse - like rebound, and the sustainability needed to be verified. The significant weekly increase in apparent demand was mainly driven by restocking, and the terminal demand was still weaker than the same period last year [3]. - Inventory side: Social inventory was 6.5455 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 168,000 tons, with a significant inventory accumulation. Steel mill inventory was 2.3962 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,900 tons, with a slight inventory accumulation. The total inventory was 8.9417 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 184,900 tons. The inventory was accumulating at a high level, and the pressure to destock was high. The total inventory was still increasing year - on - year, and social inventory was the main pressure point. The inventory - to - sales ratio was still at a high level, suppressing the upward space of prices [3]. - Cost and profit: The rebar price valuation was at a low level. Geopolitical factors pushed up oil prices and shipping costs, providing support for commodity prices [3]. - Macroeconomic aspect: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress held on March 5, 2026, released positive signals. The government work report proposed measures such as "issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds", "arranging 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds", and "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy" to stabilize growth. The market's expectation of infrastructure and real estate support increased, and the sentiment was supported in the short term [5]. Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Low rebar price valuation, geopolitical factors pushing up costs, policy support expectations, implementation of steel mill production cuts, and repair of cost support [6]. - Bearish factors: Persistently low terminal demand, weakening cost support, continuous inventory accumulation, slowdown in destocking speed, and a bearish capital position structure [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a rating of "Oscillating with a Bullish Bias" for the rebar market [1] Core Viewpoint - The rebar market is expected to maintain an oscillating and bullish trend, but the upside space depends on whether the demand recovery can drive inventory reduction [6] Summary by Directory Market Review - Futures: The rebar main contract reduced its open interest by 24,530 lots on Tuesday, with a lower trading volume compared to the previous trading day at 592,481 lots. The short - and medium - term moving averages have strengthened, breaking through the 5 - day moving average of 3133, near the 30 - day moving average of 3093, and near the 60 - day moving average of 3110 [1] - Spot: The mainstream spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3,250 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 102 yuan/ton to the spot price [2] Fundamental Data - Supply: In the week of March 13, 2026, the rebar production was 1.953 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 219,900 tons. There was short - term复产, but the long - term trend was still contraction [3] - Demand: In the week of March 13, 2026, the current apparent demand was 1.7681 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 785,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 564,000 tons. It was a pulse - like rebound, and its sustainability needed verification [3] - Inventory: Social inventory was 6.5455 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 168,000 tons; steel mill inventory was 2.3962 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,900 tons; total inventory was 8.9417 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 184,900 tons. There was a large pressure to reduce inventory [3] - Cost and Profit: The rebar price was undervalued, and geopolitical factors pushed up oil prices and shipping costs, providing support for commodity prices [3] - Macroeconomic: The 4th Session of the 14th National People's Congress on March 5, 2026, sent positive signals. The government work report proposed measures such as issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, arranging 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, and implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, which strengthened the market's expectation of infrastructure and real estate support [5] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish Factors: Low rebar price valuation, geopolitical cost increase, policy support expectations, implementation of steel mill production cuts, and cost support restoration [6] - Bearish Factors: Persistent weak terminal demand, weakening cost support, continuous inventory accumulation, slow inventory reduction, and bearish capital position structure [6] Short - Term View Summary - The rebar main contract continued to oscillate with a bullish bias with lower trading volume. The short - and medium - term moving averages strengthened, breaking through the 5 - day, 30 - day, and 60 - day moving averages. The short - term support was near the 5 - day moving average, and the resistance was at the previous platform. The supply has recovered, and high inventory has put pressure. The demand has recovered seasonally but is weaker than in previous years. The real estate data is still weak, but the cost is supported by Middle East events [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "shockingly strong" rating for the rebar market [1] Core Viewpoints - The rebar market is expected to be shockingly strong in the short term, with short - and medium - term moving averages showing strength. The future trend depends on the recovery of terminal demand, especially in real estate and infrastructure. If demand recovers, prices may rise further; if demand remains weak, high inventory will suppress prices [1][6] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures prices: The rebar main contract reduced its position by 49,467 lots on Friday, and the trading volume increased compared to the previous trading day, reaching 919,808 lots. The short - term moving average broke through the 5 - day moving average of 3120, and the medium - term 30 - day moving average was around 3092, and the 60 - day moving average was around 3108, indicating short - and medium - term strengthening [1] - Spot prices: The mainstream HRB400E 20mm rebar was quoted at 3250 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures were at a discount of 108 yuan/ton to the spot [2] Fundamental Data - Supply - demand situation: - Supply: In the week of March 13, 2026, rebar production was 1.953 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 219,900 tons. There was short - term resumption of production, but the long - term trend was still contraction [3] - Demand: In the week of March 13, 2026, the current apparent demand was 1.7681 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 785,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 564,000 tons. It was a pulse - like rebound, and its sustainability needed verification [3] - Inventory: Social inventory was 6.5455 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 168,000 tons; steel mill inventory was 2.3962 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,900 tons; total inventory was 8.9417 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 184,900 tons. There was high - level inventory accumulation and great pressure to destock [3] - Cost and profit: The steel price valuation was at a low level, and geopolitical factors pushed up oil prices and shipping costs, providing support for commodity prices [3] - Macroeconomic aspect: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress on March 5, 2026, released positive signals. The government work report proposed measures such as issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, arranging 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, and implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. Market expectations for infrastructure and real estate support increased, and sentiment received phased support [5] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Low steel price valuation, geopolitical factors pushing up costs, policy support expectations, implementation of steel mill production cuts, and cost support restoration [6] - Bearish factors: Persistent low terminal demand, weakening cost support, continuous inventory accumulation, slow destocking speed, and bearish capital position structure [6] Short - term View Summary - The rebar main contract opened higher on Friday and then moved shockingly strong. The short - and medium - term moving averages strengthened, breaking through the 5 - day, 30 - day, and 60 - day moving averages. Short - term support was near the lower gap, and resistance was at the previous platform [6] - After the holiday, the supply side recovered slightly, remaining at a low level compared to previous years, which supported prices to some extent. For the demand side, real estate policies were mainly for destocking and stability, with limited incremental demand space, which restricted the upside [6] - Future focus should be on the apparent demand data to see if it can continue to recover and drive inventory destocking. The core of the medium - term trend is the recovery strength of terminal demand, especially the actual construction situation in real estate and infrastructure [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term rating of "oscillating and slightly stronger" for the rebar market [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - and medium - term trends of rebar are strengthening, with the price standing above the 5 - day, 30 - day, and 60 - day moving averages. The short - term support is near the 5 - day moving average, and the pressure is at this week's high. The supply has slightly rebounded after the festival, which supports the price to some extent. The real - estate policy is mainly for inventory reduction and stability, and the demand increment space is limited. Future focus should be on the apparent demand data and whether it can continue to pick up to drive inventory depletion. The core of the medium - term trend is the recovery strength of terminal demand, especially the actual construction situation of real estate and infrastructure. If macro - policies drive downstream demand to recover beyond expectations, the price is expected to rise further; if the demand remains weak, high inventory will still suppress the price [1][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: On Wednesday, the rebar main contract reduced its open interest by 8,941 lots. The trading volume shrank significantly compared with the previous trading day, with 534,162 lots. In terms of the daily moving average, it broke through the 5 - day moving average at 3,100 in the short - term, and was near the 30 - day moving average at 3,092 and the 60 - day moving average at 3,108 in the medium - term, showing strengthening in the short and medium - term [1] - Spot price: The mainstream area's spot price of rebar HRB400E 20mm was 3,210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan compared with the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 95 yuan/ton compared with the spot price [2] Fundamental Data - Supply and demand: In the week of March 5, 2026, the rebar production was 1.7331 million tons, an increase of 82,100 tons compared with the previous week, indicating a recovery in steel mills' production enthusiasm. The apparent demand in the same period was 982,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 176,900 tons, mainly driven by the resumption of work after the festival, but still at a historically low level, suggesting that the demand recovery was less than expected. The downward trend in the real - estate industry has not reversed, and the long - term demand is still declining year - on - year [3] - Inventory: The social inventory was 6.3775 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 699,900 tons (+12.33%), with a significant inventory accumulation. The steel mill inventory was 2.3793 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 50,900 tons (+2.19%), with a slight inventory accumulation. The total inventory was 8.7568 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 750,800 tons (+9.38%), and the overall inventory pressure increased significantly. It is expected to enter the de - stocking stage in 2 - 3 weeks, and the inventory inflection point is approaching [3] - Cost and profit: The steel price valuation is at a low level. Geopolitical factors have pushed up oil prices and shipping costs, providing support for commodity prices [3] - Macroeconomic aspect: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress held on March 5, 2026, sent positive signals. The government work report proposed measures such as "issuing ultra - long - term special treasury bonds worth 1.3 trillion yuan", "arranging local government special bonds worth 4.4 trillion yuan", and "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy" to stabilize growth. The market's expectation of infrastructure and real - estate support has increased, and the sentiment has received phased support [5] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Low steel price valuation, geopolitical cost increase, policy support expectation, implementation of steel mill production cuts, and cost support restoration [6] - Bearish factors: Persistently low terminal demand, weakening cost support, continuous inventory accumulation, slow de - stocking speed, and bearish capital position structure [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a rating of "Oscillating Weakly" for the steel industry [1] Core Viewpoints - After the rally and subsequent decline of crude oil, the black market has also declined. The market will focus on the support near the 5 - day and 30 - day moving averages and the pressure near this week's high. After the sentiment fades, the market will return to fundamental supply - demand trading, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating weakly pattern. The supply side has started to pick up slightly after the holiday, which supports prices to some extent. The real - estate policies are mainly for inventory reduction and stability, with limited demand growth space, which restricts the upside. The future focus is on the data of apparent demand and whether it can continue to recover, which will drive inventory reduction. The core of the medium - term trend is the recovery strength of terminal demand, especially the actual construction situation of real estate and infrastructure. If macro - policies drive downstream demand to recover beyond expectations, prices are expected to rise further; if demand remains weak, high inventory will still suppress prices [5] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures Price**: On Tuesday, the position of the main rebar contract decreased by 9,469 lots. The trading volume shrank significantly compared with the previous trading day, with 795,516 lots. In terms of the daily moving average, it briefly broke through the 5 - day moving average of 3,091 in the short - term, was near the 30 - day moving average of 3,092 in the medium - term, and was under pressure near the 60 - day moving average of 3,108. With the rally and decline of crude oil, the market returned to fundamentals [1] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream areas was 3,220 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [1] - **Basis**: The futures price was at a discount of 112 yuan/ton to the spot price [2] Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand Situation** - **Supply**: In the week of March 5, 2026, the rebar production was 1.7331 million tons, an increase of 82,100 tons compared with the previous week, indicating a recovery in steel mills' production enthusiasm [3] - **Demand**: In the week of March 5, 2026, the apparent demand was 982,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 176,900 tons, mainly driven by post - holiday resumption of work. However, it was still at a low level compared with the same period in history, indicating that the demand recovery was less than expected. The downward trend in the real - estate industry has not reversed, and the long - term demand is still declining year - on - year [3] - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 6.3775 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 699,900 tons (+12.33%); steel mill inventory was 2.3793 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 50,900 tons (+2.19%); total inventory was 8.7568 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 750,800 tons (+9.38%), indicating a significant increase in overall inventory pressure. It is expected to enter the de - stocking stage in 2 - 3 weeks, and the inventory inflection point is approaching [3] - **Cost and Profit**: The steel price valuation is at a low level. Geopolitical factors have pushed up oil prices and shipping costs, providing support for commodity prices [3] - **Macroeconomic Aspect**: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress held on March 5, 2026, sent positive signals. The government work report proposed measures such as issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, arranging 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, and implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. The market's expectation of infrastructure and real - estate support has increased, and the sentiment has received phased support [4] Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Low steel price valuation, geopolitical factors pushing up costs, policy support expectations, implementation of steel mill production cuts, and cost support restoration [5] - **Bearish Factors**: Persistent weak terminal demand, weakening cost support, continuous inventory accumulation, slow de - stocking speed, and a bearish capital position structure [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the rebar market will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term. The demand side of rebar has recovered to some extent, but the incremental space is limited, which restricts the upside. The short - term production restriction policy provides certain support. Future attention should be paid to the inventory removal speed, supply - side policy implementation, and demand recovery [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures price**: On Thursday, the rebar main contract had a decrease of 2236 lots in open interest, and the trading volume increased compared to the previous trading day, reaching 806140 lots. In terms of the daily moving average, it briefly broke through the 5 - day moving average of 3070 in the short - term, but there was still pressure near the 30 - day moving average of 3097 and the 60 - day moving average of 3112. It slightly rushed up and then fell back to digest the meeting expectations, showing a narrow - range volatile consolidation overall [1]. - **Spot price**: The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream area was 3190 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [1]. - **Basis**: The futures were at a discount of 115 yuan/ton to the spot [2]. Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand situation** - **Supply side**: In the week of March 5, 2026, the rebar production was 1.7331 million tons, an increase of 82100 tons compared to the previous week, indicating a recovery in the steel mills' production enthusiasm [3]. - **Demand side**: In the week of March 5, 2026, the current apparent demand was 982300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 646800 tons (+192.79%), mainly driven by the resumption of work after the Spring Festival [3]. - **Inventory side**: The social inventory was 6.3775 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 699900 tons (+12.33%), with a significant inventory accumulation. The steel mill inventory was 2.3793 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 50900 tons (+2.19%), with a slight inventory accumulation. The total inventory was 8.7568 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 750800 tons (+9.38%), and the overall inventory pressure increased significantly [3]. - **Cost and profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills was stable, and the cost support weakened marginally. The profitability rate of steel mills remained in the range of 38% - 40%, and the profit could support blast furnace production. However, pressure emerged on the raw material side: the iron ore port inventory exceeded 170 million tons, reaching a five - year high; the coking coal imports continued to increase, and the cost support weakened [3]. - **Macroeconomic aspect**: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress held on March 5, 2026, sent positive signals. The government work report proposed measures to stabilize growth such as "issuing ultra - long - term special treasury bonds worth 1.3 trillion yuan", "arranging local government special bonds worth 4.4 trillion yuan", and "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy". The market's expectation of infrastructure and real estate support increased, and the sentiment was supported in the short - term [4]. Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Policy support expectations, implementation of steel mill production cuts, and repair of cost support [5]. - **Bearish factors**: Persistent weak terminal demand, weakening cost support, continuous inventory accumulation, slowdown in inventory removal speed, and bearish capital position structure [5].