1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The allocation value of the Securities ETF is gradually becoming reasonable, but the rebound amplitude still depends on future market trends [4][18] - The formation of the phased high - point of the market is due to the fact that the predictable cumulative increase in fundamentals is less than the rebound amplitude [3][9] - The market's choice to correct in late August 2025 was a rational behavior as the stock price high had exceeded the expected fundamental value for 2027 at that time [4][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1 Securities ETF Allocation Value Analysis - The Securities ETF (512880.SH) managed by Guotai Fund tracks the CSI All Index Securities Company Index (399975.SZ). From April 1, 2025, to December 3, 2025, its best convergent stock is CITIC Securities (600030) [3][9] - Since its rebound on July 8, 2024, CITIC Securities has experienced two price highs on November 8, 2024, and August 25, 2025, with increases of 104.34% and 91.46% respectively. The expected cumulative increase in the net profit attributable to the parent in 2027 compared to 2023 after the third - quarter report this year is 83%, which is less than the rebound amplitude [3][9] - In the previous bull market, the stock price of CITIC Securities increased by 129.24% from the low point on October 18, 2018, to the high point on July 8, 2020, and the expected increase in net profit in 2022 compared to 2018 was 109.71%, showing that the maximum increase in the stock price was basically consistent with the expected increase in fundamentals two years later [3][11] - The consensus expectation data of CITIC Securities in 2025 is lagging, underestimating its fundamental value. The report uses the net profit growth rate disclosed in the 2025 financial reports as a reference for the full - year net profit growth rate [13][14] - Taking the 13.2 - times PE of the bottom valuation in 2024 as the pricing basis, it is found that the stock price high of CITIC Securities in late August 2025 exceeded the expected fundamental value for 2027 at that time [14][18] - As of December 3, 2025, the closing price of CITIC Securities was 27.15 yuan per share, slightly higher than the expected fundamental value for 2025 of 26.18 yuan per share and lower than the expected fundamental value for 2026 of 29.03 yuan per share, indicating that market sentiment has gradually become rational [4][18]