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五矿期货农产品早报-20251223
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-12-23 01:23
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market is affected by factors such as low - price buying, weak US dollar, slow US soybean sales, and South American high - yield expectations. The import cost of soybeans has a bottom, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are relatively high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [2][4]. - The palm oil market has short - term negative data, but the situation of inventory accumulation due to large supply may reverse in the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [8]. - The global sugar supply - demand relationship has changed from shortage to surplus, and international sugar prices may not improve significantly until the first quarter of next year. Domestic sugar prices are at a relatively low level, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [12]. - The cotton market has a medium - level downstream operating rate, and the previous price decline has digested the negative impact of domestic high - yield. The probability of Zhengzhou cotton having a unilateral trend is not high [16]. - The egg market has a high premium in the futures market. The near - term futures may squeeze the premium, and the long - term futures have the expectation of capacity reduction but high valuation [19]. - The pig market has a large supply, and demand after the Winter Solstice is still supportive. It is recommended to maintain a short - term oscillatory view and pay attention to long - term support [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, CBOT soybeans closed higher. Domestic soybean meal spot prices rose about 10 yuan/ton, with good trading and pick - up. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.1306 million tons, and last week's was 2.1206 million tons. Last week, port soybean inventories decreased by 500,000 tons, but soybean meal inventories increased due to large crushing volumes, with an increase of about 550,000 tons year - on - year [2]. - **Strategy**: The import cost of soybeans has a bottom, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are relatively high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [4]. Fats and Oils - **Market Conditions**: SPPOMA data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 6.87% in the first ten days of December and decreased by 2.97% in the first 15 days. Ship - loading agency data shows that exports decreased by 15.89% - 16.37% in the first 15 days of December and are expected to decrease by 0.87% in the first 20 days. MPOC predicts that Malaysia's palm oil exports will increase to 16.2 million tons in 2026, and production will increase to 19.7 million tons. On Monday, domestic fats and oils rebounded, but the high - frequency production of Malaysian palm oil suppressed the market [6]. - **Strategy**: The short - term performance of palm oil is weak, but the situation of inventory accumulation may reverse in the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [8]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The closing price of the May contract was 5,126 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton or 0.75%. The spot price of new sugar in Guangxi remained unchanged, that in Yunnan decreased by 0 - 10 yuan/ton, and that of processing sugar increased by 0 - 20 yuan/ton. In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import was 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 tons. In the 2025/26 sugar - making season as of the end of November, the import was 1.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 120,000 tons [10][11]. - **Strategy**: The new sugar - making season is expected to have increased production in major sugar - producing countries, and the global supply - demand relationship has changed from shortage to surplus. International sugar prices may not improve significantly until the first quarter of next year. Domestic sugar prices are at a relatively low level, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [12]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose slightly. The closing price of the May contract was 14,070 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton or 0.39%. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,154 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton. In November 2025, China imported 120,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import was 900,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6 million tons. As of the end of November in the 2025/26 cotton year, the import was 880,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 410,000 tons. As of the week of December 19, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 percentage points [14][15]. - **Strategy**: The downstream operating rate is at a medium level, and the previous price decline has digested the negative impact of domestic high - yield. The probability of Zhengzhou cotton having a unilateral trend is not high [16]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Yesterday, most egg prices in the country were stable, and a few decreased. The average price in the main production areas was 2.97 yuan/jin. The supply was normal, and the market sales were mediocre [18]. - **Strategy**: The near - term futures may squeeze the premium, and the long - term futures have the expectation of capacity reduction but high valuation [19]. Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices showed mixed trends. The average price in Henan rose 0.08 yuan to 11.62 yuan/kg, and that in Sichuan decreased 0.06 yuan to 11.61 yuan/kg. After the Winter Solstice, demand decreased but still had support, and the sales of large pigs were good [21]. - **Strategy**: After the Winter Solstice, demand decreased marginally, but the total amount still supported pig prices. The supply was large, and the weight decline was limited. It is recommended to maintain a short - term oscillatory view and pay attention to long - term support [22].