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广发期货日评-20250930
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 03:20
广发期货目谱 数据来源:Wind、Mysteel、SMM、彭博、广发期货研究所 免责声明:本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料,但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下,报 告内容仅供参考,报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或间价,投资者据此投资,风险自担。 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年9月30日 欢迎关注微信公众号 | 板块 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 点评 | 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | IF2512 | | 美联储如期降息后,市场迅速消化预期转为震 | | | 股指 | IH2512 | 券商股推升盘面情绪,股指震荡上涨 | 荡。科技主线仍然主导盘面。长假将至,部分 板块出现结构性轮动强势,推荐轻仓卖出 | | | | IC2512 | | MO2511执行价6800附近看跌期权收取权利金 | | | | IM2512 | | | | | | T2512 | | T2512合约在107.4附近具有一定支撑,目前接 近这一位置,如果PMI数据明显好 ...
广发期货日评-20250926
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 03:05
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and turned to shock. With the approaching holiday, the activity of the capital market decreased, and short - term style switching and partial withdrawal would occur [2]. - Without incremental negative news, the 1.8 - 1.83% range may be the high - level range for the 10 - year Treasury bond yield, but in the absence of strong positive factors, the short - term decline in interest rates is also limited [2]. - As the end of the quarter approaches, the liquidity of derivative contracts for gold tightens, and the risk of volatility is relatively large. The silver price is driven by both financial and industrial attributes, with high upward elasticity [2]. - The shipping index on the EC (European line) is rising on the disk, and the steel exports support the black valuation, with steel prices continuing to fluctuate [2]. - The geopolitical risk premium drives the oil price up, but the expected recovery of supply in the Kurdish region limits the rebound height, with short - term shock as the main trend [2]. - The supply of urea remains loose in the short term, and the demand side lacks strong drivers, so the market is weak [2]. - For agricultural products, the supply prospects of overseas sugar are broad, and new cotton is gradually coming onto the market, increasing supply pressure [2]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Financial Stock Index - TMT continues to lead the market, and most stock indices close higher. It is recommended to sell put options on the MO2511 contract with an execution price near 6600 when the index pulls back to collect premiums [2]. Treasury Bond - The MLF is renewed with an increased amount, and the overall trend of Treasury bond futures is volatile. It is recommended to operate within the range for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to quick entry and exit. For the basis spread strategy, the basis of the TL contract fluctuates at a high level, and one can appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy [2]. Precious Metals - For gold, maintain the idea of buying on dips or buying out - of - the - money call options. For silver, keep a low - buying strategy as its price fluctuates above $43 [2]. Black Steel - Steel exports support the black valuation, and steel prices continue to fluctuate. Try short - buying on pullbacks and narrow the spread between the January contract of hot - rolled coil and rebar [2]. Iron Ore - The decline in shipments, the increase in molten iron, and the replenishment demand support the high - level shock of iron ore prices. The 2601 contract of iron ore is regarded as volatile, with a reference range of 780 - 850 [2]. Coal - The coal prices in coal - producing areas are stable with a slight upward trend. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2601 contract at high prices, with a reference range of 1150 - 1250, and short the coke 2601 contract at high prices, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800 [2]. Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - The geopolitical risk premium drives the oil price up, but the expected recovery of supply in the Kurdish region limits the rebound height. It is recommended to adopt a unilateral band - trading strategy, with the WTI operating range at [60, 66], Brent at [64, 69], and SC at [471, 502] [2]. Other Chemicals - For various chemicals such as urea, PX, PTA, etc., different trading strategies are proposed according to their supply - demand situations, such as short - selling urea on rallies, and paying attention to the pressure levels for PX and PTA long positions [2]. Agricultural Products - For different agricultural products like soybeans, pigs, corn, etc., different trends and trading suggestions are given. For example, for sugar, conduct short - selling on rebounds; for cotton, short in the short term [2]. Special Commodities - For glass, due to news - driven factors, the glass futures market has risen sharply, and it is recommended to watch cautiously. For rubber, the impact of the typhoon is limited, and the rubber price has fallen slightly, so it is recommended to watch [2]. New Energy - For polysilicon, the market sentiment is repaired, and the futures market rebounds, so it is recommended to watch temporarily. For lithium carbonate, driven by the sector sentiment, the futures market strengthens slightly, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [2].
宝城期货股指期货早报(2025年9月22日)-20250922
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 02:50
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index futures is wide - range fluctuation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is weak fluctuation. The core logic lies in the game between short - term capital profit - taking intention and the fermentation of medium - and long - term policy favorable expectations [1][5] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term trend is oscillation, the medium - term trend is upward, the intraday trend is weakly oscillating, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the game between short - term capital profit - taking intention and the fermentation of medium - and long - term policy favorable expectations [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. Last Friday, each stock index oscillated and consolidated in a narrow range. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 234.94 billion yuan, a decrease of 81.72 billion yuan from the previous day. There are differences in the market. On one hand, there is still a demand for profit - taking of profitable funds; on the other hand, policy favorable expectations and the inflow trend of funds constitute the medium - and long - term driving force for the upward movement of the stock index. The confidence of investors to continue to chase the rise is insufficient, and the profit - taking intention rises. The credit and inflation data in August were weak, and the consumption growth slowed down, indicating weak demand in the real sector, so the expectation of introducing policies to stabilize demand is strong. In terms of funds, the non - bank deposits increased significantly in July and August, and the balance of margin trading remained at a high level, indicating that the stock market continued to attract incremental funds. In the short term, the stock index is expected to mainly show wide - range fluctuations [5]