Core Viewpoint - MGM China Holdings Limited (02282) is projected to achieve a 29% year-on-year increase in property EBITDA to HKD 2.753 billion in Q4 2025, exceeding both the bank's and market expectations by 9% due to higher-than-average VIP win rates at MGM Cotai [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The net revenue for MGM China in the last quarter increased by 21% year-on-year to HKD 9.617 billion, surpassing the bank's forecast by 2% [1] - The total gaming revenue market share for MGM China is estimated to be 16.3%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.6 percentage points [1] - The property EBITDA margin improved by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 26.8%, approaching the company's target range of high 20% [1] Group 2: Operational Insights - The higher-than-average VIP win rate at MGM Cotai contributed HKD 233 million to the property EBITDA, indicating that the normalized EBITDA, excluding this impact, would be HKD 2.520 billion, aligning with expectations [1] - MGM China is currently trading at a forecasted enterprise value multiple of 7.2 times, maintaining an "outperform" rating with a target price of HKD 20.9 [1]

Core Viewpoint - MGM China (02282) is expected to see a 29% year-on-year increase in property EBITDA to HKD 2.753 billion in Q4 2025, exceeding both the bank's and market expectations by 9% due to higher-than-average VIP win rates at MGM Cotai [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The total gaming revenue market share for MGM China increased by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year to 16.3% [1] - Net revenue for MGM China grew by 21% year-on-year to HKD 9.617 billion, surpassing the bank's forecast by 2% [1] - The estimated EBITDA contribution from the above-average VIP win rate at MGM Cotai was HKD 233 million, indicating that the normalized EBITDA would be HKD 2.520 billion when excluding this impact [1] Group 2: Operational Efficiency - The property EBITDA margin improved by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 26.8%, approaching the company's target range of high 20% [1] - Effective control of operating expenses and rebates is reflected in the sustained EBITDA margin [1] Group 3: Valuation and Rating - MGM China is currently trading at a forecasted enterprise value multiple of 7.2 times, maintaining an "outperform" rating with a target price of HKD 20.9 [1]