Summary of Conference Call on Acetic Acid, Propionic Acid, and Butyric Acid Cellulose Price Outlook Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the acetic acid, propionic acid, and butyric acid cellulose market, particularly focusing on the rapid growth of the Chinese cosmetics market, which benefits from the expansion of 3D Chemical's production capacity and accelerated domestic substitution [1][3][8]. Key Points and Arguments - **Market Growth**: The global cellulose market is approximately $640 million, with China's demand for mid-to-low-end products around 26,000 tons. The domestic substitution rate is expected to reach 30%-40% this year [1][8]. - **Impact of Tariffs**: The U.S. tariffs have significantly affected cellulose product prices and raw material costs. High-end cellulose still relies on imports, particularly from Northern Europe and Brazil, which account for about 40% of total costs [1][3][4]. - **Price Trends**: The price of imported cellulose from Eastman has risen to 213,000 yuan per ton, while domestic companies like 3D Chemical and Beihua offer prices between 110,000 to 130,000 yuan per ton, indicating a shift towards domestic alternatives [1][3][4]. - **Pricing Strategy**: Eastman has adjusted its pricing strategy to a market fluctuation formula, which benefits the company but impacts mid-to-high-end downstream enterprises, especially in sectors like photovoltaic films and automotive coatings [1][4]. - **Domestic Substitution**: Domestic alternatives are primarily focused on mid-to-low-end markets, such as packaging materials and leather brighteners, while high-end markets still require validation [1][5][8]. - **Future Price Expectations**: Prices are expected to rise in a tiered manner, potentially reaching 300,000 yuan per ton, with an average price around 220,000 yuan for the year [2][24][25]. Additional Important Insights - **Production Capacity**: 3D Chemical's production capacity is projected to reach 15,000 tons after upgrades, with an operational rate of 86%-88% [13][22]. - **Market Share**: The U.S. market for butyric acid cellulose is dominated by Eastman and Celanese, which together hold 73% of the global market share [18]. - **Certification Importance**: High-end clients require certification, while mid-to-low-end clients are less concerned, which may accelerate domestic substitution in price-sensitive markets [6][8]. - **Challenges for Domestic Producers**: Domestic companies face challenges in high-end applications due to reliance on imported raw materials, which have seen price increases of over 20% [9][10]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the dynamics of the cellulose market, the impact of tariffs, pricing strategies, and the competitive landscape in both domestic and international contexts.