Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.941 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 14.63% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 153 million yuan, up 5.14% year-on-year [2][6]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 692 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.61%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.28%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 33 million yuan, down 46.18% year-on-year and down 51.90% quarter-on-quarter [2][6]. - The company has a contract asset of 190 million yuan in Q3 2025, which is a 102.8% increase compared to the beginning of the year, mainly due to the confirmation of income from various engineering projects [13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 1.941 billion yuan, with a net profit of 153 million yuan. The Q3 revenue was 692 million yuan, with a net profit of 33 million yuan [2][6]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 250 million yuan, 370 million yuan, and 500 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 22.8X, 15.3X, and 11.3X [13]. Market and Industry Analysis - The chemical sector is under pressure, with the average market price of normal propanol around 7070 yuan/ton in Q3 2025, down 1.9% quarter-on-quarter [13]. - The company is advancing coal chemical projects and refining transformation projects, supported by national policies aimed at enhancing efficiency and reducing costs [13]. Product and Technology Development - The company is the largest producer of normal propanol in China and is focusing on optimizing production processes for various aldehydes and alcohols [13]. - The high-end cellulose products are expected to benefit from domestic substitution trends, with a significant production capacity upgrade planned for acetate butyrate cellulose [13].

醋酸丙酸丁酸纤维素涨价展望 20250427 • 中国化妆品市场增长迅速，受益于 3D 化学产能扩张和国产替代加速。3D 化学在技术和下游一体化布局方面具有优势，醋酸丙酯一体化是新的增长 点。 • 美国加征关税显著影响纤维素产品价格和原材料成本。高端精致纤维素仍 依赖进口，尤其北欧和巴西的速生木浆，占总成本约 40%。 • 受关税影响，伊斯曼 CAP 进口价格上涨至 21.3 万元/吨，本土企业如 3D 化学和北化股份报价 11-13 万元/吨，国产替代加速，但高端应用仍依赖 伊斯曼。 • 伊斯曼调整定价策略应对关税，采用市场波动公式定价，利于自身但冲击 中高端下游企业，尤其光伏薄膜、电子薄膜、汽车漆等领域。 • 国产替代集中在中低端市场，如包装材料和皮革光亮剂，高端市场如汽车 漆和光伏薄膜仍需测试验证。预计下半年高端产品进口价格将远高于中低 端。 • 全球纤维素市场规模约 6.4 亿美元，中国中低端市场需求约 2.6 万吨，国 产化替代率预计今年达 30%-40%，影响 AC 含量小于 20%的纤维素价格。 • 预计未来几个月纤维素价格将阶梯式上涨，或冲击 30 万元/吨高位，但全 年平均价格预计维持在 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a steady operational performance in Q1 2025, with revenue growth but a decline in net profit, primarily due to fluctuations in chemical product prices and project revenue recognition delays [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 548 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.5% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 36.4% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 52 million yuan, down 10.5% year-on-year and down 55.8% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company's gross margin and net margin were 20.6% and 9.2%, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 0.8 percentage points and a decrease of 1.1 percentage points [3]. Group 2: Business Outlook - The chemical business is expected to benefit from the company's integrated layout in alcohols and esters, with a new production line for 50,000 tons of isooctanoic acid expected to contribute to growth within the year [2]. - The engineering business has a strong order backlog, with new contracts signed in Q1 totaling 474 million yuan, 117 times that of the same period last year [2]. - The company is positioned to capture more orders due to its geographical advantages, particularly with ongoing projects like the Northern Huajin order expected to be completed in 2025 [2]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is advancing its cellulose derivatives project, which includes upgrading a 1,000 tons/year butyric acid cellulose facility to 15,000 tons/year capacity, aiming to benefit from domestic substitution opportunities [3]. - The company leads in sulfur recovery technology, having designed and contracted 240 sulfur recovery units with a total capacity of 12.83 million tons/year, making it the largest in this sector in China [4]. - Recent wins in Xinjiang's coal chemical sector are expected to drive rapid growth in performance, with multiple projects secured for sulfur recovery design and technical services [4]. Group 4: Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 416 million yuan, 525 million yuan, and 657 million yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 58.5%, 26.0%, and 25.2%, respectively [4].