Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - Short - term iron ore inventory is not accumulating beyond the seasonal norm, the fundamentals have improved, the continuous price decline of coking coal supports the iron ore price, and combined with the marginal repair of macro - risk preference, the iron ore valuation is being repaired. Currently, there is not much contradiction between the iron ore valuation and fundamentals, and the price may fluctuate at a high level [2] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - **Price Forecast**: The price forecast range is 770 - 820, with the current at - the - money option IV at 16.74% and the historical volatility quantile at 11.3% [2] - **Risk Management Strategy** - **Inventory Management**: For those with spot inventory worried about future price drops, the strategies are to directly short iron ore futures to lock in profits (using I2601, short, 25%, entry range 820 - 830) and sell call options to collect premiums (using I2601 - C - 830, 30%, sell at high prices) [2] - **Procurement Management**: For those planning to purchase in the future and worried about price increases, the strategies are to directly go long on iron ore futures to lock in costs (using I2601, long, 30%, entry range 780 - 790) and sell out - of - the - money put options (using I2601 - P - 780, 40%, sell at high prices) [2] 3.2 Factors Affecting Prices - **Likely Positive Factors** - Low port inventory of deliverable mainstream medium - and high - grade powder ores supports near - month contracts and basis [3] - The significant price drop of coking coal, a major raw material, when steel mill profits are low, provides short - term support for iron ore prices [3] - Steel demand has improved and inventory has decreased [3] - The Fed's dovish stance has led to the resurgence of the December interest - rate cut expectation to over 80% [3] - **Likely Negative Factors** - During the domestic macro - vacuum period, high - frequency economic data is weak but not weak enough to force the introduction of economic stimulus policies [3] - Overall iron ore shipments are relatively high, and there is no shortage of overall spot (but there is a structural shortage) [3] 3.3 Price Data - **Futures Contract Closing Prices**: On November 28, 2025, the closing prices of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 799.5, 773, and 748 respectively, with daily changes of 0 and weekly changes of 14, 17, and 17.5 respectively [3] - **Basis**: The 01, 05, and 09 basis were - 0.5, 26, and 51 respectively on November 28, 2025, with daily changes of - 1.5, 1.5, and 1.5 respectively and weekly changes of - 4, - 13, and - 13 respectively [3] - **Spot Prices**: On November 28, 2025, the prices of Rizhao PB powder and Rizhao Carajás fines were 794 and 885 respectively, with daily changes of - 5 and - 5 respectively and weekly changes of 4 and 2 respectively [3] - **Platts Index**: On November 27, 2025, the Platts 58%, 62%, and 65% indexes were 95.4, 107.45, and 119.5 respectively, with daily changes of 0.2, 0.1, and 0.1 respectively and weekly changes of 2.1, 2.7, and 2.75 respectively [4] 3.4 Fundamental Data | Indicator | 2025 - 11 - 21 | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Daily average hot - metal output | 236.28 | - 0.6 | - 3.62 | | 45 - port desilting volume | 329.92 | 2.97 | 17.27 | | Apparent demand for five major steel products | 888 | - 6 | - 28 | | Global shipments | 3278.4 | - 238 | - 110 | | Australia - Brazil shipments | 2597.5 | - 236.1 | - 247 | | 45 - port arrivals | 2817.1 | 548.2 | 788 | | 45 - port inventory | 15054.65 | - 75.06 | 631.06 | | 247 steel - mill inventory | 9001.23 | - 74.78 | - 77.96 | | 247 steel - mill available days | 30.86 | - 0.16 | 0.23 | [12]