Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Iron Ore Risk Management Report [1] - Report date: October 31, 2025 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Strategy - November price forecast for Iron Ore 12 contract: 770 - 826, with current ATM option IV at 18.85% and historical volatility percentile at 11.3% [2] - Inventory management strategy: For those with current inventory worried about price drops, recommend shorting iron ore futures (I2512) at 25% hedge ratio in the 820 - 830 range and selling call options (I2512 - C - 830) at 30% hedge ratio on rallies [2] - Procurement management strategy: For those planning future purchases worried about price hikes, recommend going long on iron ore futures (I2512) at 30% hedge ratio in the 780 - 790 range and selling out - of - the - money put options (I2511 - P - 780) at 40% hedge ratio on rallies [2] Group 3: Core View - The iron ore market faces a short - term situation of "exhausted macro - level positives and pressured fundamentals". Supply remains high, port inventories are accumulating, and demand is suppressed by shrinking steel mill profits and falling hot metal production. With coking coal's strength squeezing profits, the upside for iron ore prices is limited. Suggest looking for opportunities to short on rallies after valuation adjustments [3] Group 4: Factors Affecting Price Bullish factors - Although monthly hot metal production decreased, it still shows year - on - year growth and is at a seasonal high, providing some support for iron ore demand [4] - Steel mills have low profits but have not yet cut production [4] - Previous macro events (China - US summit, Fed rate cut) improved market sentiment [4] Bearish factors - Macro - level positives are exhausted, entering a macro vacuum period [4] - Iron ore shipments remain at a seasonal high, and port inventories are accumulating above the seasonal norm [4] - Hot - rolled coil inventories are continuously accumulating above the seasonal norm. Although production has marginally declined, it remains high, indicating weak overall demand [4] - Steel mill profits have dropped significantly, and the pressure for production cuts is building up [4] - The strength of coking coal is squeezing the space for iron ore [4] Group 5: Price Data Futures contract closing prices - On October 31, 2025, the 01 contract closed at 800 (down 2.5 from the previous day, up 29 from a week ago), the 05 contract at 776.5 (down 3, up 26), and the 09 contract at 755 (down 3.5, up 25) [4] Basis data - On October 31, 2025, the 01 basis was 2 (down 0.5, down 5 week - on - week), the 05 basis was 25.5 (unchanged, down 2), and the 09 basis was 47 (up 0.5, down 1) [4][5] Spot prices - On October 31, 2025, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 803 (down 2, up 25 week - on - week), Rizhao Carajás fines was 913 (down 7, up 12), and Rizhao Super Special was 708 (down 6, up 6) [5] Platts Index - On October 30, 2025, the Platts 58% index was 96.25 (down 0.55, up 1.9 week - on - week), the Platts 62% index was 107.7 (down 0.7, up 2.05), and the Platts 65% index was 121.2 (down 0.7, up 2.05) [6] Group 6: Fundamental Data - As of October 31, 2025, daily average hot metal production was 236.36 (down 3.54 week - on - week, down 5.45 month - on - month), 45 - port desilting volume was 320.16 (up 7.51, down 16.24), five major steel products' apparent demand was 916 (up 24, up 12), global shipments were 3388.4 (up 54.9, down 87), Australia - Brazil shipments were 2844.5 (up 104.5, up 77.5), 45 - port arrivals were 2029.1 (down 490.3, down 331.4), 45 - port inventories were 14542.48 (up 118.89, up 542.2), 247 steel mill inventories were 8849.86 (down 229.33, down 1186.93), and 247 steel mills' available days were 30.35 (down 0.28, down 3.24) [12]