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铁建装备 (1786.HK) :短期内缺乏进一步催化剂,维持中性预期,目标价:2.03港元
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-02 12:00
Core Viewpoint - The company maintains a neutral outlook due to a lack of short-term catalysts and has adjusted its profit forecasts downward for 2017-2018, expecting net profit growth of -41%/22%/23% for 2017-2019 [1][3] Group 1: Company Performance and Orders - The company won a bid for 74 railway maintenance machines from the China Railway Corporation, with an estimated order value of approximately 800 million yuan [1] - The overall bidding situation from the China Railway Corporation this year has not met expectations, with a total of 159 and 99 machines bid in 2016 and 2017 respectively [2] - The company had a backlog of orders worth 1.3 billion yuan at the end of 2016 and signed new orders of 500-600 million yuan in the first half of 2017 [1] Group 2: Market Conditions and Challenges - The company faces uncertainty as the China Railway Corporation is its only major client, and the procurement pace is unclear despite previous expectations of a 40% increase in procurement during the 13th Five-Year Plan [2] - New products and business expansions are not expected to yield significant growth in the short term, particularly in the subway business where market feedback is still pending [2] - Environmental policies in Beijing are limiting the company's maintenance capacity, with an estimated 100 machines to be overhauled this year [1] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has revised its profit forecasts downward by 26-27% for 2017-2018, with projected net profit growth of -41%/22%/23% for 2017-2019 [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a 7.1 times forecasted P/E ratio for 2018, and the target price has been set at 2.03 HKD, calculated using a conservative P/E ratio of 8 times [3]