肖宇非（投资咨询证号：Z0018441） 揭婷（从业资格证号：F03114103） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 南华铝产业链风险管理报告 2025/06/11 氧化铝、电解铝、铝合金近期价格区间预测 | | 最新价格 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 氧化铝 | 2895 | 2800-3200 | 0.4309 | 0.9309 | | 电解铝 | 20250 | 19000-20300 | 0.0977 | 0.4114 | | 铝合金 | 19400 | 18500-19900 | - | - | source： 南华研究,同花顺 氧化铝、电解铝风险管理策略建议 | 品种 行为导向 | | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | | 买卖方向 套保比例（%） 建议入场区间 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 氧化铝 | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will launch futures and options contracts for casting aluminum alloys on June 10, 2025, to support China's dual carbon strategy and enhance the industry's risk management tools [1] Group 1: Market Overview - China is the largest producer and consumer of casting aluminum alloys globally, with an estimated production capacity of 13 million tons and a production volume of 6.2 million tons in 2024 [1] - The apparent consumption of casting aluminum alloys in China is projected to be approximately 6.73 million tons [1] Group 2: Product Characteristics and Applications - Casting aluminum alloys are characterized by low density, high strength, good corrosion resistance, and excellent castability, making them widely used in automotive, motorcycle, machinery, communication equipment, electronics, and hardware lighting sectors [1] Group 3: Futures Market Impact - The introduction of casting aluminum alloy futures and options is expected to provide effective tools for enterprises to manage price risks and stabilize operations [1] - The contracts will facilitate physical delivery, expanding the spot circulation channels for enterprises [1] Group 4: Pricing and Valuation - The initial listing benchmark price for the casting aluminum alloy contracts is set at 18,365 CNY per ton, with trading units of 10 tons and delivery units of 30 tons per standard warehouse receipt [2] - Initial reasonable valuation for the contracts is estimated to be between 19,000 and 20,000 CNY per ton based on current market prices [2] Group 5: Demand Dynamics - The downstream demand for casting aluminum alloys is concentrated, with over 60% used in the automotive sector, 7% in home appliances, and 10% in motorcycles and electric vehicles [3] - Seasonal demand fluctuations are expected, with peak demand from September to December and January of the following year, while the off-peak season typically occurs from May to August [3] Group 6: Price Relationships - The price relationship between primary aluminum and recycled aluminum shows seasonal trends, with the price difference typically ranging from 1,000 to 4,000 CNY per ton [3] - The correlation between aluminum alloy spot prices and primary aluminum spot prices can be utilized for effective price risk management [4]

金十数据5月22日讯，芝商所（CME）正就设立香港仓库展开磋商。今年1月，作为CME在金属期货领 域的竞争对手的伦敦金属交易所（LME）将香港纳入其全球仓库网络，香港成为LME认可的交付地点 之一。据知情人士透露，CME已与香港相关机构展开讨论，考虑将香港纳入其铝期货合约的实物交割 网络。此举或将增强CME在亚洲市场的影响力，并为其客户提供更便捷的交割渠道。CME发言人拒绝 就此事置评。 芝商所拟设香港仓库，增强亚洲市场布局 ...

撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | | 数据指标 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 19,930.00 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) 188,496.00 | -5.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -2563.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 2,766 ...

铝类产业日报 2025/4/17 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19,645.00 | +100.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,828.00 | +13.00↑ | | | 本月-下月合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 50.00 | +15.00↑ 本月-下月合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 0.00 | +2.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 218,124.00 | -2802.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 100,589.00 | -13102.00↓ | | 期货市场 | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 185,050.00 | -4825.00↓ 库存:氧化铝:合 ...