证券研究报告 金工 黄金超买风险或得到一定的释放 2025 年 11 月 23 日│中国内地 量化投资周报 期限结构模拟组合创新高，近期持仓做多工业金属板块 商品融合策略近两周上涨 0.97%，今年以来上涨 3.16%。在三个子策略中， 商品期限结构模拟组合近期表现较好，近两周上涨 2.31%，今年以来上涨 7.46%，并于上周五（2025-11-24）创下回测以来的净值新高。期限结构模 拟组合中，近两周收益贡献靠前的品种是玻璃、甲醇、PVC，收益贡献分别 为 0.46%、0.25%、0.16%，近期玻璃跌幅较大，期限结构组合因做空玻璃 而获得较多正收益；近两周收益贡献靠后的品种是橡胶、白糖、乙二醇，收 益贡献分别为-0.08%、-0.09%、-0.17%。期限结构模拟组合最新持仓中， 主要做多工业金属板块，主要做空能源化工板块，和前期持仓相比，工业金 属的多头仓位和能源化工的空头仓位均有所上升。具体品种看，截面仓单模 拟组合在铁矿石、菜油、玉米、沪铜、沪铝上配置了较高比例的多头仓位， 而在橡胶、螺纹钢、PTA、塑料上配置了较高的空头仓位。 黄金周度 RSI 指标回落至 70 以下，超买风险或得到一定的释放 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhejiang Fuchunjiang Environmental Thermal Power Co., Ltd., has approved a plan for commodity futures hedging to manage price volatility risks associated with its metal production operations [10][19]. Group 1: Company Overview - The company has not changed its controlling shareholder or actual controller during the reporting period [5][6]. - The company plans to conduct commodity futures hedging to stabilize its operational performance and mitigate risks from price fluctuations in metals such as copper, tin, gold, silver, platinum, and palladium [10][14]. Group 2: Financial Data and Compensation - As of the report date, the company has received a total of 2.112 billion yuan in demolition compensation, with 151 million yuan still pending [8]. - The company does not plan to distribute cash dividends or issue bonus shares during the reporting period [3]. Group 3: Futures Hedging Plan - The company plans to invest up to 50 million yuan in margin for futures trading, specifically in copper futures contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [11][15]. - The hedging activities will be conducted over a period of 12 months, with the ability to roll over the approved amount within the authorization period [17][27]. Group 4: Risk Management - The company has established a comprehensive risk management framework for its hedging activities, including a dedicated leadership team and risk control measures to monitor market, funding, operational, and policy risks [22]. - The company will utilize its own and self-raised funds for the hedging activities, ensuring no involvement of raised funds [18].

Group 1 - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has imposed new restrictions on holders of large positions in near-month contracts due to low inventory levels [1] - The premium for near-month copper contracts has surged to its highest level since October 2022, indicating supply tightness [1] - The new regulations require traders holding more than the total available inventory in near-month contracts to lend their positions at zero premium to the market [1] Group 2 - A single company holds over 90% of copper warrants and spot contracts, while two other companies hold between 50-79% [2] - As of last Friday, LME copper registered warehouse inventory stands at 99,200 tons, a decrease of over 60% since mid-February, marking the lowest level since August 2023 [2] - The continuous decline in inventory amplifies the market impact of large positions, posing a risk of pricing mechanism distortion [2]