南华豆一产业风险管理日报 2025/09/30 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647） 康全贵（从业资格证号：F03148699） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 豆一11合约价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3850-4000 | 10.16% | 31.4% | source： 南华研究,wind,同花顺 新粮季节性供给宽松主导，现货价格持续回落，新粮上市高峰陆续到来，十一期间现货价格风险较大； 豆一期货空头回补动作持续，但期价反弹趋缓； 拍卖端重启，成交表现较好； 【利多解读】 1、近两次国储拍卖成交率较好，底价调低成为关键因素，虽然增加现货供应，但成交好转一定程度上说明市 场活力仍在； 2、11合约空方延续近期大幅减仓动作，支撑期价维持反弹形态； 3、双向拍卖下还粮操作带动的收购刚需对市场有阶段性支撑； 【利空解读】 豆一风险策略 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- ...

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily [1] - Date: September 25, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel markets showed a strong and volatile trend. The nickel ore supply was unstable due to sanctions on mining companies in Indonesia and the approaching quota approval in October. The cobalt price was expected to rise, driving up the prices of MHP and nickel salts. The nickel iron price decreased due to stainless - steel demand constraints, and the stainless - steel market was also strong but with weak spot trading. The decline of the US dollar in the macro - level led to an upward movement in the non - ferrous metals market [3] - There were both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors included the proposed revision of the HPM formula in Indonesia, the shortening of the nickel ore quota period, continuous de - stocking of stainless steel, and the takeover of some nickel - producing areas. Negative factors included high pure nickel inventory, tariff disturbances, and weak stainless - steel spot trading [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Volatility Forecast - **Nickel**: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel was 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - **Stainless Steel**: The predicted price range of stainless steel was 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 6.95% and a historical percentile of 0.3% [2] Risk Management Strategies Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price declined and inventory had impairment risk, it was recommended to sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [2] - **Procurement Management**: When the company had future production procurement needs and was worried about rising raw material prices, it was recommended to buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [2] Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price declined and inventory had impairment risk, it was recommended to sell stainless - steel futures (SS main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [3] - **Procurement Management**: When the company had future production procurement needs and was worried about rising raw material prices, it was recommended to buy stainless - steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [3] Market Data Nickel | Indicator | Latest Value |环比差值 |环比 | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Nickel Main Contract | 122,990 | 0 | 0% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 1 | 122,990 | 1,540 | 1.27% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 2 | 123,160 | 1,530 | 1.26% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 3 | 123,350 | 1,460 | 1.26% | yuan/ton | | LME Nickel 3M | 15,240 | - 195 | - 1.20% | US dollars/ton | | Trading Volume | 177,030 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Open Interest | 99,642 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 25,153 | 48 | 0.19% | tons | | Main Contract Basis | - 505 | 185 | - 26.8% | yuan/ton | [5] Stainless Steel | Indicator | Latest Value |环比差值 |环比 | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stainless Steel Main Contract | 12,930 | 0 | 0% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 1 | 12,930 | 35 | 0.27% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 2 | 12,970 | 30 | 0.23% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 3 | 13,030 | 35 | 0.27% | yuan/ton | | Trading Volume | 129,897 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Open Interest | 109,896 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 87,505 | - 298 | - 0.34% | tons | | Main Contract Basis | 640 | - 35 | - 5.19% | yuan/ton | [5] Inventory Data | Inventory Type | Latest Value | Change from Previous Period | | --- | --- | --- | | Domestic Social Inventory of Nickel | 41,484 tons | + 429 tons | | LME Nickel Inventory | 230,586 tons | 0 tons | | Stainless Steel Social Inventory | 909 tons | + 11.8 tons | | Nickel Pig Iron Inventory | 28,652 tons | - 614.5 tons | [6] Positive and Negative Factors - **Positive Factors**: The Indonesian APNI planned to revise the HPM formula, the nickel ore quota period was shortened from three years to one year, stainless steel had been de - stocking for several weeks, and the Indonesian forestry working group took over part of the nickel - producing area of PT Weda Bay [5] - **Negative Factors**: The pure nickel inventory was high, there were still tariff disturbances between China and the US, the EU stainless - steel import tariff was uncertain, the anti - dumping duty on Chinese stainless - steel thick plates in South Korea was implemented, and the stainless - steel spot trading was weak [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of grain trading companies in Heilongjiang, focusing on how they leverage futures trading and risk management tools to stabilize the agricultural supply chain and enhance profitability for both farmers and processing enterprises [1][2][3]. Group 1: Company Strategies - Source Logistics has shifted from traditional grain storage and trading to a diversified model that includes futures delivery services and basis trading, aiming to mitigate market price risks and support both farmers and factories [1]. - The company has increased its hedging ratio from 20% to over 50%, and in favorable market conditions, it can reach up to 80% [6]. - The introduction of an "order agriculture" model has allowed farmers to lock in prices and manage risks more effectively, with one farmer reportedly increasing his income by 200,000 yuan through this method [9][10]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The grain trading industry has faced challenges due to fluctuating prices and market conditions, leading to a shift in trading strategies among companies [4][5]. - The integration of financial tools, particularly futures, is seen as essential for managing market risks and ensuring stable earnings across the agricultural supply chain [2][7]. - The article highlights the importance of collaboration between grain trading companies and farmers to ensure a stable supply chain and reasonable returns for all parties involved [2][3][11]. Group 3: Market Trends - The article notes that many farmers are still accustomed to traditional pricing methods, which poses challenges for the adoption of new trading models [9]. - The average age of farmers in the region is around 65, indicating a potential shift towards more consolidated and efficient farming practices in the future [10]. - The companies are focusing on educating farmers about risk management and the benefits of using financial instruments to enhance their operational strategies [12].

图为绥化象屿金谷农产有限公司的智能标准储粮仓。 产业链共赢是联农带农的重要前提 依托京粮龙江生物工程有限公司、黑龙江龙凤玉米开发有限公司和源发物流等玉米产业主体，绥化市青冈县 打造形成了百亿玉米产业园。"京粮生物和龙凤玉米既是我们公司的大股东，也是我们主要服务的粮食加工企业。 我们目前每年的贸易量在50万吨左右，在向这两家企业提供稳定粮源的基础上，我们要尽可能为其降低玉米采购 价格，以助力加工企业控制原材料成本。"刘勇告诉记者。 绥化象屿金谷农产有限公司（以下简称"绥化象屿农产"）在产业链上也有着类似定位。"我们的主营业务之一 是为绥化象屿金谷生化科技有限公司提供原粮保障。"据绥化象屿农产总经理范洪图介绍，公司自有仓容130万 吨，除了政策性储存、期货交割、金融供应链使用仓容外，有30万吨仓容供生化加工原料需求使用。这一定位叠 加国有企业属性，决定了他们需要向上游发挥联农带农作用，在稳定粮源的同时，助力农民稳产增收。 这样的两家企业，前几年开始，其经营受到农户惜售情绪及"高价买粮、低价销售"的双重影响；与此同时， 种植端的感受是卖粮难。"2022年整个市场红利期回调后，包括我们在内的粮贸企业或多或少都受到冲击 ...

（编辑 楚丽君） 证券日报网讯 9月24日晚间，中辰股份发布公告称，公司于2025年9月24日召开第四届董事会第四次会 议，审议通过了《关于开展期货套期保值业务的议案》，同意公司及子公司进行铜、铝等商品期货的套 期保值业务。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the Container Shipping Index (European Route) futures at the Shanghai Futures Exchange serves as a new risk management tool for the shipping industry, helping companies manage market volatility and enhance competitiveness [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Export Enterprises - Export enterprises like Shandong Laiwu Taifeng Food Co., Ltd. face significant challenges due to fluctuating shipping costs, which can exceed the value of the goods being shipped [3][4]. - The introduction of the Container Shipping Index futures allows these companies to stabilize shipping costs and manage risks associated with price volatility, enabling them to operate with greater confidence [6][10]. - By utilizing the futures, Taifeng Food was able to mitigate a potential increase in shipping costs from 38,000 USD to 45,000 USD per FEU, resulting in a net additional cost of only 8,000 RMB instead of 40,000 RMB [4][6]. Group 2: Benefits for Freight Forwarding Companies - Freight forwarding companies, such as Qingdao Taize International Logistics Co., Ltd., benefit from the Container Shipping Index futures by enhancing their competitive edge in a crowded market [7][10]. - The futures allow these companies to hedge against price fluctuations, thus improving their service offerings to clients and increasing their market competitiveness [7][9]. - Taize Logistics reported successful hedging strategies that not only avoided losses from price volatility but also generated profits, showcasing the effectiveness of the futures in risk management [8][10]. Group 3: Market Performance and Adoption - Since its launch, the Container Shipping Index futures have demonstrated strong market performance, with a total trading volume of 61.0491 million contracts and a transaction value of 5.28 trillion RMB over two years [11]. - The product has gained traction among various stakeholders in the shipping industry, with an increasing number of companies beginning to understand and utilize futures for risk management [11][12]. - Despite its success, there remains a significant need for market education and promotion to encourage broader adoption among enterprises unfamiliar with futures trading [12][13].

| 投资者关系活动 | □特定对象调研 □ 分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 类别 □ | 媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | □ | 新闻发布会 路演活动 √ | | □ | 现场参观 其他 （请文字说明其他活动内容） □ | | 参与单位名称及 | 邰桂龙 西南证券 | | 人员姓名 | 张越 开源证券 | | | 安家正 中信证券 | | | 徐凡 财通证券 | | | 刘珺涵 交银施罗德 | | | 陈威 汇添富基金 | | | 张璐 永赢基金 | | | 闫思倩 鹏华基金 | | | 陈思宇 富国基金 | | 时间 | 2025 年 9 月 18 日 | | 地点 | 上海 | | 上市公司接待人 | 1、陆灿 | | 员姓名 | 2、副总经理、董事会秘书：佘砚 | | | 3、良质关节总经理：方涛 根据投资者的问题汇总后整理如下： | | | 1、家电零部件业务发展情况 家电零部件业务为公司主要业务，主要产品以电磁阀为技术 | | 投资者关系活动 | 核心向其他产品进行技术延伸，形成以电磁阀、微型电机、电子 | | 主要内容介绍 | 水泵为技术包向下游客户提供相适应的产品品类，核心产品为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in net profit for Q2 2025, but demonstrated resilience in profitability despite falling lithium prices and maintained a strong cash position [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 209 million yuan, down 30% year-on-year, but up 9% quarter-on-quarter; the non-recurring net profit was 145 million yuan, down 51% year-on-year and down 20% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company’s lithium salt sales reached approximately 12,050 tons in the first half of 2025, with the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate at 70,400 yuan per ton, a year-on-year decrease of 32% [2] - The company’s special steel business generated revenue of 2.831 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.28%, with a gross margin of 11.52%, down 0.79 percentage points year-on-year [2] Business Strategy - The company shifted its sales model to a combination of spot sales and futures to stabilize relationships with quality customers and mitigate price volatility impacts on profitability [2] - The company has a robust cash position with 5.224 billion yuan in cash and minimal long-term debt, resulting in financial income of 11.32 million yuan in Q2 2025 [2][3] Dividend Policy - The company declared a mid-year dividend of 159 million yuan, representing approximately 40% of the net profit for the first half of 2025 [3] Resource and Production Capacity - The company possesses high-quality upstream lithium resources, ensuring stable raw material costs for lithium salt production [3] - The company’s subsidiary holds mining rights with significant reserves of lithium-bearing minerals, which are crucial for lithium production [3] - The company is positioned as a cost-effective lithium producer and is expected to enhance profitability through capacity expansion and a new lithium carbonate project [3]

Group 1 - The online seminar focused on the current status and development trends of the lead industry, the role of the futures market in supporting high-quality development, pricing frameworks, and the integration of production and finance [1] - The lead industry is facing challenges such as raw material dependency, capacity utilization, and the need for low-carbon development, with an emphasis on expanding consumption and green development as essential requirements [1][2] - The futures market provides companies with risk management tools to lock in procurement costs and sales profits, enhancing operational efficiency and addressing price volatility risks [2] Group 2 - In 2024, the lead futures market recorded a total trading volume of 30.02 million contracts, with a cumulative transaction value of 2.67 trillion yuan, and an average daily open interest of 59,100 contracts [3] - Lead options have been steadily operating since their launch, with a total trading volume of 1.06 million contracts in the first half of 2025, and an average daily trading volume of 7,108.85 contracts [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange aims to enhance market transparency, improve trading mechanisms, and increase participation from industry clients to better serve the real economy [3]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the Container Shipping Index (European Route) futures at the Shanghai Futures Exchange serves as a new risk management tool for the shipping industry, helping enterprises manage market volatility and enhance competitiveness [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Foreign Trade Enterprises - The Container Shipping Index (European Route) futures provide stability in shipping costs, addressing the concerns of foreign trade enterprises like Shandong Laiwu Taifeng Food Co., Ltd., which previously faced unpredictable shipping costs due to market fluctuations [3][4]. - By utilizing the futures, Taifeng Food was able to hedge against rising shipping costs, resulting in a net additional payment of only 8,000 RMB instead of 40,000 RMB due to price increases in the spot market [5][7]. Group 2: Benefits for Freight Forwarding Companies - Freight forwarding companies, such as Qingdao Taize International Logistics Co., Ltd., have gained a competitive edge by using the Container Shipping Index (European Route) futures to manage risks associated with price volatility [8]. - The futures have allowed these companies to engage in hedging transactions, effectively avoiding price fluctuations and even generating profits during periods of rising shipping rates [8]. Group 3: Market Performance and Adoption - Since its launch, the Container Shipping Index (European Route) futures have demonstrated strong market performance, with a total trading volume of 61.0491 million contracts and a trading value of 5.28 trillion RMB over two years [10]. - The futures have been resilient during significant market disruptions, such as the Red Sea crisis and U.S.-China trade tensions, indicating their effectiveness as a financial derivative [10]. - Despite the positive impact, there remains a need for greater market awareness and education regarding the futures, as many potential users still express skepticism about their benefits [10][11].