Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [6][9][12]. Core Views - The demand for nitrocellulose is increasing while supply is contracting, positioning the company as a leading global player in this market, which is expected to benefit significantly from the growing ammunition demand [7][8]. - The company's financial performance is showing signs of recovery, with a projected revenue increase of 34% in 2025, reaching 2.61 billion yuan, and a substantial profit growth forecast of 412% [6][9]. - The long-term prospects for military nitrocellulose exports and its application in environmentally friendly fireworks are promising, indicating potential new market opportunities [8][9]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 13.20 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 7.2 billion yuan [4]. - The company reported a significant decline in revenue in 2024, with a total revenue of 1.947 billion yuan, down 9.83% year-on-year, and a net profit of -28.31 million yuan, a decrease of 150.99% [6][12]. - The company aims to achieve a revenue target of 2.6 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 140 million yuan [6][12]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.61 billion yuan, 3.21 billion yuan, and 3.87 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 137 million yuan, 300 million yuan, and 428 million yuan [12][13]. - The company is expected to see a significant improvement in its profit margins, with EBITDA projected to rise from 39.38 million yuan in 2024 to 533.19 million yuan by 2027 [12][13].

Group 1: Industry Outlook - The international market demand for nitrocellulose remains stable, with an increase in demand for energetic cotton due to ongoing global instability and military conflicts [2][3] - The demand for activated carbon, catalysts, and environmental equipment is expected to grow as the domestic economy recovers [2][3] - The overall situation in the special industrial pump sector is positive, with stable demand in flue gas desulfurization, phosphorus chemical, and overseas markets [2][3] Group 2: Profit Growth Drivers - Key drivers for future profit growth include optimizing existing production capacity, enhancing product structure, and improving core competitiveness [3][4] - Strengthening internal processes and resource allocation to increase operational efficiency is crucial [3][4] - The company aims to expand its international operations in line with national policies, particularly the "Belt and Road" initiative [3][4] Group 3: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue increased by 146.9 million yuan, a growth rate of 49.50%, primarily due to higher sales in nitrocellulose and defense products [4][6] - The total profit for Q1 2025 rose by 45.72 million yuan, driven by increased revenue and improved product margins [4][6] Group 4: Export and Market Strategy - In 2024, the company's export revenue was 262.18 million yuan, accounting for 13.47% of total revenue, mainly from nitrocellulose products [6][7] - The company primarily engages in self-operated foreign trade for nitrocellulose exports, supplemented by port trade [6][7] Group 5: Future Goals and Management - The company's 2025 operational targets include achieving a revenue of 2.6 billion yuan and a total profit of 140 million yuan [8][9] - The company emphasizes market value management and aims to enhance investor returns through continuous dividend plans and improved information disclosure [7][9]