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阿里巴巴-W(09988):推出Qwen3-Next人工智能模型,打造极致推理训练性价比
Great Wall Securities· 2025-09-12 12:33
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group Holding Limited (09988.HK) [4] Core Views - Alibaba has launched the next-generation AI model architecture Qwen3-Next, which significantly improves training efficiency and cost-effectiveness compared to previous models [2][3] - The new model architecture is designed to handle large amounts of information while reducing computational costs during and after training, enhancing inference efficiency [2] - The company is actively developing its own AI chips to fill the gap left by NVIDIA in the Chinese market, indicating a comprehensive strategy in AI technology and ecosystem [3] Financial Summary - Projected revenue for FY2024A is 941.17 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 8.34% year-over-year [8] - Expected revenue growth rates for FY2025A, FY2026E, FY2027E, and FY2028E are 5.86%, 6.21%, 11.82%, and 10.23% respectively [8] - Projected net profit for FY2024A is 79.74 billion CNY, with a year-over-year growth rate of 9.97% [8] - Adjusted net profit estimates for FY2026E, FY2027E, and FY2028E are 125.63 billion CNY, 159.87 billion CNY, and 190.27 billion CNY respectively [3][8] - The report anticipates a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) from 4.19 CNY in FY2024A to 8.76 CNY in FY2028E [8] Market Position - According to a Sullivan report, Alibaba's market share in the enterprise-level large model invocation market in China is projected to be 17.7% in the first half of 2025, ranking first [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the commercialization of AI applications and AI agents, enhancing its cloud business revenue growth [3]