EMBA 培训业务受中美贸易摩擦影响，三季度报单率和收款改善，预计 全年业绩超 3 亿，估值 15-16 倍，股息率超 6%，明年百校计划预计贡 献 10%以上营收增量。 首旅酒店逐季数据改善，开店数量提升，推进 260 万间客房目标。预计 今年业绩 9 亿，估值 17-18 倍；明年 10 亿，估值 16 倍。内需消费改 善预期带来业绩和估值弹性。 小商品城市值回调后具布局价值，前三季度业绩超预期，三季度归母净 利润超 17 亿，新业务保持中高双位数增长。上调全年利润预期至 47- 48 亿，明年至 58 亿甚至更高，目前估值 16-17 倍。 永辉超市调整门店，日销逐步稳定，早期调整门店已盈利，关店计划减 少利润拖累。预计明年减亏甚至扭亏为盈，自有产品推进有望带来流量 增长，股价恢复前景可观。 美妆板块受双十一催化，珀莱雅和薇诺娜表现突出。珀莱雅估值具性价 比，薇诺娜改善显著，值得重点关注。珀莱雅 2025 年估值不超过 20 倍，2026 年 16-17 倍。 积极看好低位消费股布局机会 20251017 摘要 Q&A 目前消费板块在市场表现中相对较弱，您认为未来有哪些可能的催化因素和性 价比较高的公司 ...

10 月微观结构再平衡，机会在哪？ ——主动量化周报 核心观点 本轮回调幅度或超预期，中美摩擦持续发酵仅是催化，科技回调源于微观结构再平衡， 短期建议由科技切换至红利。 ❑ 本轮行情与 4 月有哪些不同？ 虽然本轮回调的触发因素与 4 月初类似，均为中美贸易摩擦的边际升级，但我们 认为，当前定价环境与 4 月初存在三点显著差异，而这可能意味着市场运行节奏 也将出现明显不同。 第一，市场对本轮 TACO 交易的预期过早且过于一致。4 月美国推出对等关税类 似突击战，有较强的突发性，对市场预期的一次性冲击较强，而市场则表现为一 次性大幅下跌，在确认 TACO 后见底反弹；而本轮摩擦更像阵地战，在 10 月 10 日特朗普宣布对华加征 100%关税前，美国近期已持续出台一系列对华限制和制 裁措施，中国也通过稀土出口管制进行回应，双方都做了一定准备，这使得本次 升级对市场预期的冲击实际上比 4 月初时更小。但也正因如此，在关税升级后， 市场对 TACO 交易的预期迅速形成，且过于一致，表现为 10 月 13 日市场大幅低 开后，资金大幅涌入，当日上证指数接近收平。过于一致的预期中可能潜藏着反 转的风险，这意味着即便特 ...

[Table_QuotePic] 最近一年行业指数与沪深 300 比较 -7% -1% 5% 11% 17% 23% 29% 35% 41% 10/24 12/24 03/25 05/25 07/25 10/25 商贸零售 沪深300 [Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告： 黄金避险投资优势，看好黄金消费趋势 ——新消费行业周报（20251006-1010） 一、行情回顾：本周（2025.10.06-2025.10.10），A股 SW商贸零售行 业指数下滑 0.40%，而沪深 300 下跌 0.51%，上证指数上涨 0.37%。 商贸零售在申万 31 个一级行业中涨幅排名第 20 位。 [Table_Rating] 增持（维持） [◼Table_Summary] 主要观点 [行业Table_Industry] : 商贸零售 日期: shzqdatemark 2025年10月18日 | [Table_Author] 分析师: | 杜洋 | | --- | --- | | Tel: | 021-53686169 | | E-mail: | duyang@shzq.com | | SAC 编号: | S0 ...

策略周报 A 股估值收缩，银行行业领涨 A 股 TTM&全动态估值全景扫描（20251018） 核心结论 本周 A 股总体估值收缩，银行行业领涨。由于此前科技成长板块占优，市场 资金更倾向于"进攻"，资金持续流出银行板块，导致银行板块经历了深度 回调。当前资产价格预期分歧加剧，具备防御属性的银行迎来修复行情。当 前银行行业整体 PB（LF）处于历史 22.8%分位数，仍具有较大的修复空间。 （3）从全动态 PE 角度，各大类行业中，可选消费、中游制造、周期类绝 对估值和相对估值均高于历史中位数，其中可选消费绝对估值高于历史 90 分位数。必需消费绝对估值和相对估值均低于历史中位数，其中必需消费相 对估值低于历史 10 分位数。 综合比较赔率（PB 历史分位数）与胜率（ROE 历史分位数）：当前石油石 化、农林牧渔、通信、公用事业等行业同时具有低估值高盈利能力的特征。 综合比较赔率（全动态 PE）与胜率（25-26 一致预期净利润复合增速）：当 前，建筑材料、电力设备、基础化工、传媒兼具低估值与高业绩增速。 本周股市相对债市性价比下降：A 股非金融 ERP 从上周的 0.81%升至本周 的 0.92%；股债收益 ...

========= - The "Guosen JinGong Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio" aims to select stocks with both fundamental support and technical resonance from an analyst-recommended stock pool[14][15] - The portfolio's backtesting period is from January 1, 2010, to June 30, 2025, with an annualized return of 19.11% and an excess return of 18.48% relative to the Hang Seng Index[15] - The portfolio construction involves selecting stocks based on analysts' upward earnings forecasts, initial coverage, and unexpected events in analyst reports[15] Portfolio Backtesting Results - Annualized return: 19.11%[15] - Excess return relative to the Hang Seng Index: 18.48%[15] - Maximum drawdown: 23.73%[20] - Information ratio (IR): 1.22[20] - Tracking error: 14.55%[20] - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 0.78[20] Stable New High Stock Screening Method - The method screens stocks that have reached a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days based on analyst attention, relative stock strength, stock price stability, and continuity of new highs[23][24] - The formula for the 250-day new high distance is: $$ 250 \text{ day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Closet}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $$ where $Closet$ is the latest closing price and $ts\_max(Close, 250)$ is the maximum closing price in the past 250 trading days[23] - Stocks are selected based on the absolute value of the past 120-day price change and the sum of the absolute values of the past 120-day price changes[23] Stable New High Stock Screening Results - The sector with the most new high stocks is the cyclical sector, followed by technology, consumer, financial, manufacturing, and pharmaceutical sectors[23] - Specific stocks that have reached stable new highs include China National Building Material, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, and others[23][29] - The screening criteria include analyst attention (at least 5 buy or hold ratings in the past 6 months), relative stock strength (top 20% in the past 250 days), and stock price stability (top 50% based on price path smoothness and new high continuity)[24] Performance of Hong Kong Stock Connect and Active Funds Investing in Hong Kong Stocks - Median return of Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks this week: -3.44%[44] - Median return of active funds investing in Hong Kong stocks this week: -3.79%[44] - Median return of Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks this year: 25.14%[44] - Median return of active funds investing in Hong Kong stocks this year: 34.50%[44] Top Performing Funds - This week: Ping An Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend Select A (2.29%), China Merchants Bank Hong Kong and Shanghai Multi-Strategy (1.90%), Ping An Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend Select A (1.88%)[45] - This year: China Universal Hong Kong Advantage Select A (140.23%), Bank of China Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical A (104.90%), E Fund Global Pharmaceutical Industry RMB A (93.97%)[45] =========

Core Insights - The market's focus on corporate performance has significantly increased with the ongoing disclosure of Q3 reports, with 46 institutions conducting 195 "buy" ratings covering 140 stocks as of October 17 [2][8] - Among the stocks rated, Zhongchong Co. and Xiaoshangpin City received the highest number of ratings, with 16 and 9 institutions respectively [2][3] - Zhongchong Co. reported a revenue of 3.86 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 21.05%, and a net profit of 333 million yuan, up 18.21% [2] Company Performance - Zhongchong Co. has successfully entered the North American market through its WANPY brand on Chewy, the largest pet e-commerce platform in North America, indicating ongoing channel development [2] - Among the 140 stocks rated, 32 reported a year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters, with Shijia Photon and Chenguang Biotech showing net profit growth exceeding 100% [8] - Shijia Photon achieved a net profit of 300 million yuan, a staggering increase of 727.74%, driven by the rapid growth of the data communication market due to AI development [8] - Chenguang Biotech's estimated net profit for the first three quarters ranges from 278 million to 314 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 344.05% to 401.55% [8] Industry Trends - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors are seeing a surge in positive news, with new regulations aimed at promoting biomedical innovation and improving medical quality [5][6] - The electronic industry is also favored by institutions, with AI technology driving new growth, particularly in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) demand, which is expected to grow by 70% globally by 2025 [6] - The average increase in stock prices for the 140 rated stocks this year is 39.56%, with 14 stocks experiencing gains exceeding 100%, highlighting strong market performance [9]

（原标题：【盘中播报】沪指跌1.39% 电力设备行业跌幅最大） 今日各行业表现（截至下午13:58） | 申万行业 | 行业 | 成交额 | 比上日 | | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 涨跌 | （亿元） | （%） | 领涨（跌）股 | （%） | | | （%） | | | | | | 煤炭 | 0.12 | 165.48 | -1.93 | 安泰集团 | 10.00 | | 银行 | -0.04 | 302.99 | 0.44 | 上海银行 | -0.83 | | 钢铁 | -0.09 | 133.07 | 11.66 | 武进不锈 | -7.73 | | 交通运输 | -0.11 | 258.60 | 1.27 | 普路通 | -3.36 | | 纺织服饰 | -0.25 | 119.79 | 1.62 | 迎丰股份 | -9.99 | | 石油石化 | -0.29 | 83.04 | 13.78 | 康普顿 | -3.19 | | 农林牧渔 | -0.45 | 139.82 | 1.92 | 傲农生物 | -4.66 | | 房地产 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights a potential rebound in the Hong Kong internet sector, driven by attractive valuations and the influence of AI technology, following indications from the Federal Reserve about possible interest rate cuts [4] - The Hong Kong internet index saw a significant increase of over 2% on October 15, 2025, reflecting a positive market sentiment towards internet stocks [4] - The food and beverage sector continues to show upward momentum, with the food and beverage index recording gains for two consecutive days, indicating a recovery in domestic demand [4] Group 2 - The top three sectors for capital inflow include pharmaceuticals with 2.548 billion, home appliances with 1.591 billion, and food and beverages with 0.597 billion [2] - The sectors experiencing the most significant capital outflow are non-ferrous metals at -4.939 billion, telecommunications at -2.096 billion, and defense and military at -1.717 billion [2] - The article notes that the food and beverage sector is characterized by low base, low holdings, and low expectations, suggesting that any changes in supply and demand could significantly impact stock prices [4]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.2%, the CSI 300 increased by 1.5%, the STAR 50 gained 1.4%, the CSI 1000 was up by 1.5%, the ChiNext Index surged by 2.4%, and the Hang Seng Index climbed by 1.8% [5][4] - The best-performing sectors included power equipment (+2.7%), automotive (+2.4%), electronics (+2.3%), pharmaceutical and biotechnology (+2.1%), and retail (+1.9%). The worst-performing sectors were steel (-0.2%), oil and petrochemicals (-0.1%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (+0.0%), real estate (+0.1%), and defense and military industry (+0.2%) [5][4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 20,729 billion, with a net outflow of 5.44 billion HKD from southbound funds [5][4] Automotive Industry Insights - The automotive sector report emphasizes three main investment opportunities: robotics, bus exports, and intelligent driving [6] - The market perception of technological advancements and potential profit growth in the automotive sector is considered insufficient [6] - Key drivers include significant changes in the robotics industry, strong bus export volumes, and rapid advancements in applications for autonomous vehicles [6] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Insights - The core viewpoint is that pig farming and cattle breeding remain the main focus, with an emphasis on capturing post-cycle opportunities [7] - The report notes a continuous decline in pig prices, a gradual reversal in the beef cycle, and persistent low milk prices [7] - Key drivers include rising pig prices due to policy shifts towards "anti-involution" and increasing beef prices as traditional demand peaks in Q4 [7] Macro Economic Insights - The macroeconomic report highlights a significant increase in exports to Africa, driven by Chinese companies seeking new markets amid US trade tensions [8] - The report suggests that the high growth in exports may be a result of "export grabbing" [8] - The potential for industrial layout in African economies is noted as a key differentiator from market expectations [8] Fixed Income and Credit Bond Insights - The fixed income report indicates that the positive spread between rental yields and risk-free rates could provide guidance for housing prices, with 2027 expected to be a critical year for identifying the bottom of the real estate market [9] - The report anticipates a "L-shaped" bottoming out of the real estate market rather than a V-shaped rebound, highlighting significant structural differentiation [9] - Key drivers include the rental return rate as a critical reference for when housing prices may bottom out, with expectations for rental yields to reach near a decade-high by the end of 2027 [9]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The report discusses the potential for PPI to turn positive, with September CPI at -0.3%, PPI at -2.3%, and expectations for both being slightly negative [5][9][12] - Core CPI has shown a seasonal decline, with September's core CPI remaining at 0%, marking the first time since April 2025 that it fell below seasonal expectations [10][11] - The report anticipates that if PPI remains at 0% from October 2025 onward, the average PPI for 2026 could be around -0.7% [14] Group 2: Electronic Industry Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of commercialization in domestic AI hardware, focusing on the synergy of computing power, storage, and operational capacity [18][19] - The demand for Scaleup and Scaleout hardware is expected to grow significantly, with the global market for Scaleup exchange chips projected to reach nearly $18 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of approximately 28% from 2022 to 2030 [19] - The report identifies a low domestic production rate for operational hardware, indicating a significant opportunity for domestic replacements in the market [21] Group 3: Robotics Industry Insights - The report introduces Figure03, a humanoid robot designed for mass production, emphasizing safety and comfort in home environments [23][24] - Figure03 features advanced capabilities such as tactile sensors for stable operation in limited visibility environments and supports wireless charging for continuous operation [24][25] - The report notes that Figure aims to produce over 100,000 units within four years, with a projected valuation of nearly $40 billion, supported by significant investments from major tech companies [24][26]