Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC2604 contract is expected to oscillate today due to the contradiction between its weak fundamentals and potential increase in fuel costs; the EC2610 contract follows the cost - support logic, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term as it is far from now and there is a peak season in between. For other far - month contracts, the key lies in the blockade time of the Strait of Hormuz. Given the complex transmission path of the geopolitical event to the European line and high uncertainty, it is advised to avoid the high - volatility risk of far - month unilateral trading and look for arbitrage opportunities from the monthly spread valuation [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contract Information - For EC2604, the closing price was 1803.0, with a decline of 5.05%, a basis of - 109.7, a trading volume of 18169, an open interest of 12060, and an open interest change of - 3207 [2] - For EC2605, the closing price was 2086.0, with a decline of 4.23%, a basis of - 392.7, a trading volume of 1146, an open interest of 1414, and an open interest change of - 155 [2] - For EC2606, the closing price was 2364.1, with a decline of 3.08%, a basis of - 670.8, a trading volume of 12555, an open interest of 12845, and an open interest change of FF60 [2] - For EC2607, the closing price was 2475.2, with a decline of 3.58%, a basis of - 781.9, a trading volume of 421, an open interest of 891, and an open interest change of - 22 [2] - For EC2608, the closing price was 2354.2, with a decline of 2.35%, a basis of - 660.9, a trading volume of 1120, an open interest of 2720, and an open interest change of - 108 [2] - For EC2609, the closing price was 1658.1, with a decline of 3.60%, a basis of 35.2, a trading volume of 84, and an open interest of 498 [2] - For EC2610, the closing price was 1567.9, with a decline of 0.32%, a basis of 125.4, a trading volume of 2222, an open interest of 7330, and an open interest change of - 172 [2] - For EC2612, the closing price was 1716.7, with a decline of 3.23%, a basis of - 23.4, a trading volume of 143, and an open interest of 503 [2] Month - spread Information - The EC2604 - 2606 month - spread was - 561.1, with a day - on - day change of - 20.8 and a week - on - week change of - 89.9 [2] - The EC2604 - 2605 month - spread was - 283, with a day - on - day change of - 3.7 and a week - on - week change of - 253.0 [2] - The EC2606 - 2610 month - spread was 796.2, with a day - on - day change of - 70.0 and a week - on - week change of - 28.4 [2] Spot Index Information - The TERNA spot index on 2026/3/23 was 1693.26 points, with a 8.79% increase from the previous period [2] - The SCFI (European line) on 2026/3/20 was 1636 dollars/TEU, with a 1.11% increase from the previous period [2] European Line Spot Situation - In Week 13, MSK opened flat at 2250 dollars, PA reported 2400 - 2500 dollars, and some voyages were 2200 dollars (2000 dollars for large orders), and the average spot price converted to the futures price was about 1700 - 1800 points [4] - In the first half of April, YML and ONE reported 2500 dollars, EMC reported 3160 dollars, and OOCL reported 3100 dollars [4] - Maersk reported 2650 dollars in Week 14 (a 400 - dollar increase from the previous week) and 2350 dollars in Week 15 (a 300 - dollar decrease from the previous week) [4] Related News - On March 25, COSCO Shipping resumed booking for Gulf countries, but ships will not pass through the Strait of Hormuz for now. Instead, they will transport containers to ports on the east side of the strait and then transfer them by land [5] - On March 25, Iran put forward five conditions for a cease - fire [5] - On March 25, US media reported that the White House was planning a negotiation with Iran over the weekend, and US Vice - President Vance might attend [5] - On March 26, White House Press Secretary Levitt reiterated that the time frame for Iran's actions was 4 to 6 weeks, and Iran was willing to have a dialogue while Trump was ready to participate [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The PA Alliance has relatively low prices, and attention should be paid to the demand in April under high capacity. The EC2604 contract is approaching delivery, and investors are advised to closely follow the spot market and operate flexibly. The contracts for the relatively peak seasons of June, July, and August are expected to be strong, but there are uncertainties. The strategy is to go long on EC2606 and short on EC2610 [1][6][8] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Futures Price - As of March 18, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures was 49,092.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 42,436.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2604, EC2605, EC2606, EC2607, EC2608, EC2609, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1905.30, 2137.00, 2342.00, 2475.00, 2316.00, 1693.30, 1525.40, and 1718.80 respectively [7] 2. Spot Price - On March 13, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1618/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was $2249/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was $3111/FEU. On March 16, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1556.49 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1109.11 points [7] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of February 28, 2026, 27 container ships with a total capacity of 174,232 TEU were delivered in 2026. From 2026 to 2029, there are clear delivery plans for ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and over 17,000 TEU. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, while in 2027, 2028, and 2029, the annual delivery volume of over 17,000 TEU ships exceeds 40 [4] - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity of the China - European base port in the remaining 3 weeks of March was 308,200 TEU, and the weekly capacities in weeks 12, 13, and 14 were 310,600, 282,100, and 331,800 TEU respectively. In April, the average weekly capacity was 326,200 TEU. In May, the average monthly capacity was 311,800 TEU. There were 8 blank sailings in March and some TBNs in March, April, and May [5] 4. Supply Chain - The US government is considering sending thousands of additional US troops to the Middle East while Trump weighs the next move against Iran. After the Israel - Iran conflict, shipping companies try to support prices in the off - season. Some large ships are transferred from the Middle East route to the Asia - Europe route, increasing supply - side pressure and potentially affecting European line freight rates [4][5] 5. Demand and European Economy - The year - on - year growth rate of the demand side of the Asia - Europe route has been relatively high, with the container trade volume in most months having a year - on - year growth rate of over 10%. The peak - season contracts in June, July, and August are expected to be strong, mainly because the probability of the Suez Canal's resumption in the first half of 2026 is relatively low, the delivery pressure of ultra - large container ships in the first half of 2026 is small, and the demand side has a high growth rate. However, it is also necessary to pay attention to the impact of oil price fluctuations on the economy and demand [6]

Core Insights - Ningbo-Zhoushan Port is projected to achieve a cargo throughput of over 1.4 billion tons by 2025, maintaining its position as the world's largest port for 17 consecutive years [1] - The annual container throughput is expected to exceed 43 million TEUs, securing the third position globally [1] - The port's comprehensive operational capabilities are set to experience significant improvements [1] Group 1: Port Operations and Connectivity - Ningbo-Zhoushan Port has optimized its shipping routes, with container shipping lines reaching 309 by the end of 2025, connecting over 700 ports in more than 200 countries and regions [1] - The port facilitates nearly 300 vessel movements daily [1] Group 2: Logistics and Transportation Innovations - The "Ningbo-Zhoushan Port-William Port" fast shipping route between China and Europe is expected to operate regularly by 2025, reducing transit time by over 10 days [1] - The world's first fast shipping route for containers from China to Europe via the Arctic was launched from Ningbo-Zhoushan Port, providing a new option to address uncertainties in traditional shipping routes [1] Group 3: Intermodal Transport Development - Ningbo-Zhoushan Port is enhancing its sea-rail intermodal transport, with over 110 routes established by the end of 2025, covering 69 cities across 16 provinces in China [1] - The port has developed 40 inland dry ports, with sea-rail intermodal business volume exceeding 200,000 TEUs in the same year [1] Group 4: Cost Efficiency Initiatives - The implementation of the "Container Shipping Timeliness Cost Reduction" plan has saved over 25,000 hours of waiting time for vessels and reduced costs for shipping companies by more than 867 million RMB [1]

Group 1 - The report highlights the transition of China's outbound strategy from "product export" to "capital export," focusing on investments in overseas resource sectors such as mining and oil and gas, which will reshape global trade patterns [7][20][25] - The report recommends prioritizing investments in three sub-sectors of the shipping industry: dry bulk shipping, which is approaching a supply-demand inflection point; the tanker sector, which is entering a strong earnings period; and regional container shipping with favorable supply-demand structures [4][7][20] Group 2 - In the dry bulk shipping sector, iron ore is the largest single commodity, accounting for 27% of shipping volume in 2024. The West African Simandou iron ore project, with a projected annual capacity of 120 million tons by 2028, is expected to significantly alter China's iron ore import landscape and drive a 2.2% increase in global dry bulk shipping demand [8][44][48] - The tanker sector is experiencing a recovery as previous demand constraints are lifted, with a projected fleet growth of only 0.5% for VLCCs in 2026, indicating a tight supply environment. Factors such as increased oil production from South America and stricter sanctions on Russia are expected to boost demand [9][70] - The container shipping industry is entering a pressure testing phase due to the end of export rush effects from trade tensions and ongoing geopolitical conflicts. However, there are still structural growth opportunities in regional markets, particularly in Asia and emerging markets [10][70] Group 3 - The report provides forecasts for the shipping industry, predicting a demand growth rate of 3.5% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027 for dry bulk shipping, while supply growth is expected to be 3.4% and 2.4% respectively, indicating a tightening market [8][62] - The report emphasizes the importance of the Simandou project and potential post-war reconstruction in Ukraine as key drivers for increased dry bulk shipping demand, with estimates suggesting an additional 1.3% demand growth from Ukraine's reconstruction efforts [52][54] - The report identifies key investment targets, including Haitong Development and China Merchants Energy, which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated recovery in the shipping market [62][70]

Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in shipping prices, with a decline of over 63% from nearly $8,000 to below $3,000 for a 40-foot container, signals deeper changes in the global economy and trade dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Behind the Decline in Shipping Prices - Global consumption is cooling, driven by persistent high inflation in Europe and the U.S., leading to a notable decrease in consumer demand [3]. - The supply chain has stabilized, with a record increase in new ships and a significant reduction in port congestion, resulting in a nearly 10% increase in global container shipping capacity over the past two years [3]. - Geopolitical tensions, such as the Red Sea crisis and U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, are increasing trade costs and suppressing trade flows [3]. Group 2: Broader Implications of Falling Shipping Prices - The decline in shipping prices reflects a slowdown in global trade, with the WTO revising its 2024 global goods trade growth forecast down to 2.6%, significantly below historical averages [5]. - Countries are restructuring supply chains, shifting focus from efficiency to security, which may lead to short-term efficiency losses and increased costs [5]. - China's export structure is evolving, with significant growth in new sectors such as electric vehicles and lithium batteries, indicating resilience in the face of external pressures [5]. Group 3: Strategic Insights and Future Directions - Cooperation between major economies is essential for mutual prosperity, as emphasized by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who advocates for collaboration over confrontation [7][9]. - The fluctuations in shipping prices serve as both a warning of challenges and an opportunity to reshape global trade rules [7]. - A stable shipping price curve will signify a return to rationality and cooperation in global trade dynamics [9].

Core Viewpoint - The shipping costs for containers from Shanghai to the U.S. West Coast have surged significantly due to a recent agreement between China and the U.S. to temporarily lower tariffs, leading to a rapid increase in shipping demand and tight supply in the container shipping market [1][2]. Group 1: Shipping Costs and Tariff Impact - On May 30, the shipping cost for a 40-foot container from Shanghai to the U.S. West Coast reached $5,172, a 58% increase from the previous week and 2.2 times higher than the level before the tariff agreement on May 9, which was $2,347 [1][2]. - The increase in shipping costs is attributed to a doubling of cargo volume shipped to the U.S. within three weeks, causing a supply-demand imbalance in the container shipping market [1][2]. - The shipping costs from Shanghai to Europe and South America have also risen, with a 21% increase to Europe and a 45% increase to South America, as shipping companies redirect vessels to these routes due to increased demand [3]. Group 2: Market Adjustments and Future Outlook - Container shipping companies are responding to the surge in demand by increasing the number of vessels and restoring some services, particularly on the U.S. West Coast, where the demand spike is more pronounced [2][3]. - Despite the increase in shipping capacity, the supply situation for the U.S. East Coast remains tight, indicating ongoing challenges in meeting demand [2]. - The future of container shipping rates will be influenced by the progress of negotiations between China and the U.S., with potential fluctuations depending on whether tariffs are further reduced or increased [3].

Group 1 - The shipping stocks are experiencing significant gains, with Pacific Shipping up 8.33% to HKD 1.95, and other companies like Seaspan International and Orient Overseas also showing notable increases [1] - Recent high-level trade talks between China and the US have led to substantial progress, with the US canceling 91% of additional tariffs and China reciprocating with the same percentage of counter-tariffs [1] - The upcoming peak season for container shipments on trans-Pacific routes is expected to drive demand, as US supply chain inventory needs are anticipated to increase, leading to a surge in bookings from US buyers for imports from China [1] Group 2 - The surge in cargo volume on the US routes is attributed to a combination of factors, including seasonal increases, urgent shipments due to future concerns, and overall US restocking demands, resulting in a tight supply-demand situation [2] - The pressure on European routes is easing, with marginal recovery in economic demand and expectations of a peak season returning [2]