1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "oscillating", with a short - term (within 1 month), medium - term (1 - 3 months), and long - term (over 3 months) amplitude of - 5% - 5% [4][87] 2. Core View of the Report - The container shipping index (EC) showed a weak oscillation this week due to the Houthi's halt of attacks and poor freight rate implementation. The future trend depends on the implementation of the December price increase notices, and it is difficult to predict the decline of the main contract freight rate for now. The trading strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for both unilateral and arbitrage trading, while paying attention to geopolitical and macro - policy disturbances [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Logic** - **Spot Freight Rates**: In late November, MSK quoted 2020, HPL quoted 2850, etc.; in early December, MSK quoted 3200, HPL quoted 3250, etc. There is an obvious differentiation in the price hikes among shipping companies [4] - **Political and Economic Factors**: The last trading Monday for the container shipping index (European Line) futures EC2602 contract in 2026 is February 9. Iran seized an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman, and the Houthi officially announced the halt of maritime attacks against Israel. A ship that was supposed to go around the Cape of Good Hope is actually passing through the Red Sea/Suez Canal [4] - **Capacity Supply**: The weekly average capacity deployment in September was 290,000, 245,000 in October, 265,000 in November, and is expected to be 290,000 in December. The overall loading rate is lower than the same period in the past two years [4] - **Demand**: There are still expected 1 - 2 price hikes during the peak season. The loading rate shows differentiation, with PA + MSC having a lower loading rate and a higher probability of price cuts, while GEMINI's loading rate is gradually increasing at low prices [4] - **Investment View and Strategy**: The investment view is oscillating. The trading strategy is to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading, and pay attention to geopolitical and macro - policy disturbances [4] 3.2 Price - The report presents the price trends of European, US West, US East, and Mediterranean routes through line charts, including SCFIS, SCFI, and CCFI indices [6][7][8] 3.3 Static Capacity - **Order Volume**: It shows the order volume and new - order volume of container ships in different loading capacities from 2015 - 2025 [13] - **Delivery Volume**: The delivery volume and demolition volume of container ships in different loading capacities from 2020 - 2025 are presented, along with future delivery volume forecasts from 2023 - 2029 [16][17][22] - **Ship Prices**: It includes the scrap prices, new - building prices, and second - hand prices of container ships in different loading capacities and time periods [29][31][35] - **Existing Capacity**: The existing capacity of container ships is analyzed in terms of total capacity, capacity by loading capacity, age structure, and idle/retrofit ratio [44][47][51] 3.4 Dynamic Capacity - **Shipping Schedule**: The total capacity deployment and capacity deployment of different alliances (PA + MSC, GEMINI, OCEAN, etc.) from Shanghai to European basic ports are presented from week 13 to week 28 [59][61][63] - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: The situation of container ships with installed, being - installed desulfurization towers, including capacity, number of ships, and average age/duration, is shown [69][70][73] - **Idle Capacity**: The idle capacity of container ships in terms of total capacity, capacity by loading capacity, and proportion is presented from 2014 - 2025 [77][78][79]