航运日报 | 2025-12-17 马士基伦敦口岸港报价2700美元/FEU，02合约估值中枢不断 上移 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹WEEK52周报价1500/2340，上海-伦敦口岸港1月第一周报价 1680/2700/2800；HPL12月下半月价格1535/2535，1月上半月报价2135/3535.马士基发布1月份涨价函2275/3500. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 12月下半月价格1605/2665，1月上半月价格1725/2865；ONE 12月下半月船期报价 1865/2435，1月份船期报价2240/3035；HMM上海-鹿特丹12月下半月船司价格1418/2406; YML 12/16-12/30船期价 格最新更新为1550/2400.MSC发布1月涨价函2220/3700. Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹12月下半月船期价格1585/2745,1月上半月船期报价2085/3745；EMC 12月下半 月1955/3010；OOCL 12月下半月船期价格介于2430-2630之间. 地缘端：马 ...

航运日报 | 2025-12-16 动态供给：12月份剩余3周月度周均运力32.6万TEU，WEEK51/52/53周运力分别为38.64/29.09/30.07万TEU。1月份 月度周均运力32.27万TEU，WEEK2/3/4/5周运力分别为33.97/32.94/34.08/28.08万TEU。2月份月度周均运力27.67万 TEU，WEEK6/7/8/9周运力分别为33.81/28.61/21.40/26.87万TEU，1月份共计4个TBN，均为OA联盟，2月份共计9 个TBN和2个空班（两个空班均为OA联盟）。 12月合约:12月合约交割结算价格逐步清晰。12月合约交割结算价格为12月15号、12月22号以及12月29号三期SCFIS 的算数平均值。 12月上半月价格持续修正，PA联盟YML 12月第二周价格下修至1700-2000美元/FEU，马士基12月 第二周开价2200-2300美元/FEU美元/FEU，OOCL 12月上半月线上价格介于2230-2380美元FEU，MSC12月上半月 价格2465美元/FEU，12月上半月运价中枢下修至2100-2200美元/FEU附近。MSC12月下半月 ...

航运日报 | 2025-12-12 市场需求逐步好转，等待马士基1月份开价 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹12月第三周价格1540/2420，WEEK52周报价1485/2310；HPL -SPOT12 月下半月价格介于2035-2335.马士基发布1月份涨价函2275/3500. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 12月下半月价格1605/2665；ONE 12月下半月船期报价2225/3035；HMM上海-鹿特 丹12月下半月船司价格1418/2406; YML 12/16-12/30船期价格最新更新为1550/2400. Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹12月下半月船期价格1535/2645,1月上半月船期报价2485/4545；EMC 12月下半 月1955/3010；OOCL 12月上半月报价介于2230-2380美元/FEU，12月下半月船期价格介于2530-2630之间. 地缘端： 据AXIOS网站：特朗普计划任命一名美国将军领导加沙内部安全部队。美国白宫就加沙问题表示，和平 计划下一阶段正进行大量低调的规划。 ...

航运日报 | 2025-12-11 市场需求逐步好转，12月下半月运价逐步修正 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹12月第三周价格1540/2420，WEEK52周报价1480/2300；HPL -SPOT12 月下半月价格介于2535-2735.马士基发布1月份涨价函2275/3500. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 12月下半月价格1605/2665；ONE 12月下半月船期报价2225/3035；HMM上海-鹿特 丹12月下半月船司价格1618/2806; YML 12/16-12/30船期价格最新更新为1550/2600. Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹12月下半月船期价格1585/2745,1月上半月船期报价2485/4545；EMC 12月上半 月价格1855/2810，12月下半月1955/3010；OOCL 12月上半月报价介于2230-2380美元/FEU，12月下半月船期价格 介于2530-2630之间. 地缘端：马士基发布关于红海/亚丁湾的更新，在2025年2月双子座合作启动时，由于红海持续的动荡，A ...

今年来，我国航运业持续获政策支持，14家公司前三季度净利润实现增长，部分公司已超去年全年净利 润。安通控股（600179）、锦江航运（601083）、辽港股份（601880）增幅居前，分别为311.77%、 64.76%、37.51%。 人民财讯12月2日电，受益于国际航线运费上调、集运指数期货大涨等因素，A股港口航运公司股价迎 来强势上涨。航运市场价格上涨，主要受航线重构与运力紧张、供需失衡等原因影响。因地缘政治与气 候变化影响，部分国际航线需绕行好望角，航行时间和燃油成本均有明显增长。需求方面，全球原油增 产周期提振运输需求，今年以来OPEC+多次实施增产，海运石油出口量显著上升。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the container shipping industry is "weak and volatile" [3] Core Viewpoints - The future trend of the container shipping industry will show a weak and volatile pattern. The core driving factors include the implementation of December freight rates, the execution of the January price increase letter, and seasonal changes in cargo volume. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, focusing on the actual implementation of December freight rates and the effectiveness of the January price increase letter [3] Summary by Directory Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Driving Forces** - **Spot Freight Rates**: Bearish. In early December, MSK quoted $2500, HPL quoted $2700, OOCL quoted $2400, CMA quoted $3550, EMC quoted $3100, ONE and MSC quoted $2450 [3] - **Political and Economic Factors**: Neutral. The last trading day of the container shipping index (European Line) futures EC2602 contract is February 9, 2026. Iran seized an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman, and the Houthis officially announced to stop maritime attacks against Israel. A ship that was supposed to go around the Cape of Good Hope actually passed through the Red Sea/Suez Canal [3] - **Capacity Supply**: Bullish. The average weekly capacity deployment in September was 290,000, in October was 245,000, in November was 265,000, and in December is expected to be 290,000 [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. The overall loading rate is lower than the same period in the past two years. PA + MSC has the lowest loading rate in the alliance and is more likely to cut prices, while GEMINI's loading rate is gradually increasing at low prices [3] - **Summary and Outlook** - The market will be weak and volatile. If the top shipping companies maintain the quote range of $2400 - $2600 per FEU in December and there is no large - scale overbooking, the near - month contracts of EC will continue to be under pressure. The implementation of the January price increase letter may face difficulties. The traditional peak season from late December to early January may bring short - term freight rate boosts if there is an unexpected increase in cargo volume. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the actual implementation of December freight rates and the effectiveness of the January price increase letter. If the December freight rates are implemented at 80% of the quoted price, the EC2602 contract may test the range of 1500 - 1700 points; if the price is successfully maintained, the 02 contract may rise to 1800 - 1900 points [3] - **Investment Viewpoint and Trading Strategy** - The investment viewpoint is "weak and volatile". The trading strategy is to wait and see for both single - side and arbitrage trading, and pay attention to geopolitical disturbances and macro - policy disturbances at home and abroad [3] Part Two: Price - There are graphs showing the European Line Index, US West Line Index, US East Line Index, etc., but no specific text analysis is provided [6] Part Three: Static Capacity - **Order Volume, Delivery Volume, Demolition Volume, and Future Delivery** - There are graphs showing the order volume, delivery volume, demolition volume, and future delivery of container ships with different loading capacities from 2015 - 2029 [12][15][21] - **Ship Prices** - There are graphs showing the new - building prices, second - hand ship prices, and scrap prices of container ships with different loading capacities from 2015 - 2025 [28][34][36] - **Existing Capacity of Container Ships** - There are graphs showing the existing capacity, average age, and demolition average age of container ships with different loading capacities from 2015 - 2025 [43][50][52] Part Four: Dynamic Capacity - **Ship Schedule (Shanghai - European Base Ports)** - There are graphs showing the total capacity deployment, PA + MSC capacity deployment, GEMINI capacity deployment, MSC capacity deployment, and OCEAN capacity deployment from week 13 to week 28 [58][60][62] - **Container Ship Desulfurization Tower Installation, Speed, and Idle Capacity** - There are graphs showing the container ships with installed desulfurization towers, those under installation, average speed, and idle capacity from 2018 - 2025 [69][73][77]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "oscillating", with a short - term (within 1 month), medium - term (1 - 3 months), and long - term (over 3 months) amplitude of - 5% - 5% [4][87] 2. Core View of the Report - The container shipping index (EC) showed a weak oscillation this week due to the Houthi's halt of attacks and poor freight rate implementation. The future trend depends on the implementation of the December price increase notices, and it is difficult to predict the decline of the main contract freight rate for now. The trading strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for both unilateral and arbitrage trading, while paying attention to geopolitical and macro - policy disturbances [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Logic** - **Spot Freight Rates**: In late November, MSK quoted 2020, HPL quoted 2850, etc.; in early December, MSK quoted 3200, HPL quoted 3250, etc. There is an obvious differentiation in the price hikes among shipping companies [4] - **Political and Economic Factors**: The last trading Monday for the container shipping index (European Line) futures EC2602 contract in 2026 is February 9. Iran seized an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman, and the Houthi officially announced the halt of maritime attacks against Israel. A ship that was supposed to go around the Cape of Good Hope is actually passing through the Red Sea/Suez Canal [4] - **Capacity Supply**: The weekly average capacity deployment in September was 290,000, 245,000 in October, 265,000 in November, and is expected to be 290,000 in December. The overall loading rate is lower than the same period in the past two years [4] - **Demand**: There are still expected 1 - 2 price hikes during the peak season. The loading rate shows differentiation, with PA + MSC having a lower loading rate and a higher probability of price cuts, while GEMINI's loading rate is gradually increasing at low prices [4] - **Investment View and Strategy**: The investment view is oscillating. The trading strategy is to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading, and pay attention to geopolitical and macro - policy disturbances [4] 3.2 Price - The report presents the price trends of European, US West, US East, and Mediterranean routes through line charts, including SCFIS, SCFI, and CCFI indices [6][7][8] 3.3 Static Capacity - **Order Volume**: It shows the order volume and new - order volume of container ships in different loading capacities from 2015 - 2025 [13] - **Delivery Volume**: The delivery volume and demolition volume of container ships in different loading capacities from 2020 - 2025 are presented, along with future delivery volume forecasts from 2023 - 2029 [16][17][22] - **Ship Prices**: It includes the scrap prices, new - building prices, and second - hand prices of container ships in different loading capacities and time periods [29][31][35] - **Existing Capacity**: The existing capacity of container ships is analyzed in terms of total capacity, capacity by loading capacity, age structure, and idle/retrofit ratio [44][47][51] 3.4 Dynamic Capacity - **Shipping Schedule**: The total capacity deployment and capacity deployment of different alliances (PA + MSC, GEMINI, OCEAN, etc.) from Shanghai to European basic ports are presented from week 13 to week 28 [59][61][63] - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: The situation of container ships with installed, being - installed desulfurization towers, including capacity, number of ships, and average age/duration, is shown [69][70][73] - **Idle Capacity**: The idle capacity of container ships in terms of total capacity, capacity by loading capacity, and proportion is presented from 2014 - 2025 [77][78][79]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - On October 20, the SCFIS slightly exceeded expectations. The 10 - month contract delivery settlement price may be higher than 1110 points, and the market has a large divergence on the final delivery settlement price. The 12 - month contract is expected to trade in different rhythms, and the shipping companies will adjust the supply to keep the freight rate at a high level. The 2026 February contract may have a large expected difference but is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations [4][5]. - The counter - measure of China against the US USTR port surcharge has a relatively small impact on the European line [3]. - The strategy suggests that the 12 - month contract is expected to be volatile and bullish, and there is no arbitrage opportunity currently [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of October 20, 2025, the closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 is 1522.00, EC2604 is 1155.10, EC2606 is 1330.30, EC2608 is 1440.30, EC2510 is 1100.10, and EC2512 is 1682.00. The 10 - month contract has a high open interest, and the market has a large divergence on the final delivery settlement price. The 12 - month contract focuses on the actual implementation of price increases in November, and the trading rhythm is expected to follow the pattern of trading price increase expectations and actual implementation [4][5][6]. 2. Spot Price - On October 17, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1145 dollars/TEU, SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the US) was 1936 dollars/FEU, and SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the US) was 2853 dollars/FEU. On October 20, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1140.38 points, and SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the US) was 863.46 points [6]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From January to October 2025, 211 container ships were delivered, with a total capacity of 1.706 million TEU. As of October 17, 2025, 64 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 963,800 TEU, and 10 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 218,840 TEU. The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in October was 250,800 TEU, 299,500 TEU in November, and 308,800 TEU in December. There were 4 blank sailings and 4 TBNs in November and 5 TBNs in December [2][6]. 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitically, Hamas is discussing the next - stage content of the Gaza cease - fire agreement in Egypt, and has handed over the remains of Israeli hostages to the Red Cross. There is a counter - measure between China and the US regarding port fees for related ships, but it has a relatively small impact on the European line [2][3]. 5. Demand and European Economy - There is no specific analysis of demand and European economy data in the content provided, but it can be inferred that the shipping companies' supply - side adjustment for freight rates is related to the need to prepare for the next - year long - term contract negotiation to ensure stable revenue [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is implementing additional port fees for Chinese vessels starting October 14, 2025, which will significantly increase operational costs for Chinese shipowners and shipbuilders [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Port Fee Implementation - The U.S. Trade Representative's Office (USTR) announced a fee structure for Chinese-owned, operated, and built vessels, with charges starting at $50 per net ton, increasing annually until reaching $140 by 2028 [1]. - The fees must be paid three working days before arrival at the first U.S. port, with non-compliance risking unloading delays or customs clearance suspension [1]. - The fee structure aims to boost U.S. shipbuilding and tax revenue while targeting Chinese maritime operations [3]. Group 2: Chinese Response and Operational Adjustments - In response, China amended its international shipping regulations to impose special fees on vessels from countries that implement discriminatory measures against Chinese shipping [2]. - Major shipping alliances have begun adjusting their operations, with some routes to the U.S. being suspended to reduce costs associated with the new port fees [4]. Group 3: Impact on Shipping Costs and Market Dynamics - The new port fees are expected to increase operational costs for Chinese shipowners significantly, with estimates of an additional $304 per TEU for container ships calling at U.S. ports [3]. - Shipping companies are prioritizing market share over profitability, leading to a rapid cancellation of sailings due to tariff disruptions and weak U.S. demand [5][6]. - The overall impact on the European shipping market is expected to be limited, but the situation will require ongoing observation as shipping lines may adjust their strategies in response to the new fees [7][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Shipping companies are trying to raise prices in the second half of October, and the actual implementation needs to be monitored. - The valuation of the October contract is becoming clearer, with the settlement price depending on the actual price increase in the second half of October. - The December contract trading focuses on the rhythm, and the driving force is relatively strong before the continuous price - increase expectations are falsified. - The strategy suggests going short on the October contract and expecting the December contract to be oscillating upwards [1][4][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - **Online Quotations**: Different shipping alliances and companies have various price trends. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes increased in Week 42; HPL announced price hikes in the second half of October and November. Some companies like CMA also attempted to raise prices in the second half of October [1][2]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: Israel attacked Sana'a, Yemen, which may impact the shipping market [3]. - **Capacity**: The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in October was 272,600 TEU, and in November it was 285,200 TEU. There were 15 blank sailings in October and 4 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in November [3]. - **October Contracts**: The settlement price of the October contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. The freight rate center in the first half of October continued to decline, and the final settlement price depends on the actual price increase in the second half of October [4]. - **December Contracts**: The trading of the December contract focuses on the rhythm. With Western holidays in the fourth quarter and shipping companies' preparations for long - term agreements, the freight rate is expected to be at a high level. However, the weak demand in the US line and potential ship transfers may put pressure on European line prices [5]. 3.2 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Go short on the October contract and expect the December contract to be oscillating upwards. - **Arbitrage**: No arbitrage strategy is recommended [8]. 3.3 Data on Contracts and Freight Rates - As of September 25, 2025, the total position of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 77,695 lots, and the daily trading volume was 70,242 lots. The closing prices of different contracts varied, such as EC2602 at 1,696.20, EC2604 at 1,285.10, etc. - On September 19th, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) was 1,052 US dollars/TEU, SCFI (Shanghai - US West) was 1,636 US dollars/FEU, and SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 2,557 US dollars/FEU. On September 15th, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1,254.92 points, and SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1,193.64 points [6]. 3.4 Container Ship Delivery In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of September 21, 2025, 196 container ships with a total capacity of 1.562 million TEU have been delivered. Among them, 62 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and a total capacity of 935,000 TEU, and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU and a total capacity of 176,880 TEU have been delivered [7].