一德期货：集运指数维持偏震荡的判断 上周集运指数先扬后抑，市场复航预期施压指数估值。为进一步推动春节前集中出运，船商不断降价揽 货，目前1月末-2月初市场报价主要集中在2400-2800美元/FEU区间，运力供给维持高位，若后市货量增 长不及预期，现货运价或将在1月底迎来拐点。上海航交所公布最新SCFI欧线为1676美元/TEU，较上期 下跌2.5%，上海港平均舱位利用率基本接近满载，航线运价小幅下跌。不过受光伏产品增值税出口退 税政策调整影响，一季度光伏等新能源产品抢运预期仍存，对运价或有边际支撑。因此不宜过分看空， 维持偏震荡的判断。策略上，现货企业继续以套期保值单持有为主，春节前已签订出运合同的企业同步 在期货端对买保头寸(EC2602)进行平仓；套利方面，可继续关注EC2604与EC2608合约之间正向套利机 会。 瑞达期货（002961）：多船司陆续调低价格，集运期价支撑减弱 现货运价方面，第四周报价大柜2600-3200美金不等，马士基第4周开舱大柜2700美金，环比第三周上行 100美金。地缘端，统泽连斯基在塞浦路斯访问期间表示，目前与美欧伙伴的谈判达到了一个新的水 平，有望在2026年上半年结 ...

航运日报 | 2026-01-16 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹1月下半月船期报价1859/3293，2月份船期价格1859/3293；EMC1月下半月船 期报价3030-3130美元/FEU；OOCL 1月上半月份船期报价2580-2630美元/FEU。 地缘端：丹麦航运巨头马士基(Maersk)当地时间周四表示，在该地区安全形势趋于稳定后，将恢复通过红海和苏伊 士运河的航行，但仍将密切关注中东地区的安全局势。这标志着在也门胡塞武装袭击船只导致全球海运贸易持续 两年受扰之后，航运业开始迈出恢复正常的重要一步。马士基当天表示，近期已两次成功通过相关航线后，公司 将重新启动一条由马士基独立运营的航线服务MECL，该航线连接中东和印度与美国东海岸。该航线计划于1月26 日正式启动，首航船舶将从阿曼萨拉拉港出发。 静态供给：交付现状层面，截至2025年12月31日。2025年至今交付集装箱船舶268艘，合计交付运力215.5万TEU。 12000-16999TEU船舶合计交付80艘，合计121.3万TEU；17000+TEU以上船舶交付13艘，合计277672TEU。交付预 期层面，12000 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The central bank's interest - rate cut and quota increase in re - loans are expected to support key sectors and small - medium - sized enterprises, and the reduction of the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans aims to destock the commercial real estate market [2][3][4]. - In the short term, the stock index futures market may continue to oscillate and adjust, and investors should focus on the structure rather than the index, while also paying attention to the impact of the annual report performance forecast [6]. - The precious metals market shows a divergence, with gold and silver remaining strong and platinum and palladium lagging behind. Investors can pay attention to the entry opportunities after the callback stabilizes [7]. - The container shipping index is in a wide - range shock due to the interweaving of short - term long and short factors, and the short - term EC2604 is expected to be in a volatile state [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1.当日要闻 (Today's Key News) - The central bank will cut the re - loan and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points from January 19, 2026, and adjust other related policy rates [2]. - The central bank will increase the re - loan quota for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 500 billion yuan, set up a 1 - trillion - yuan re - loan for private enterprises, and increase the re - loan quota for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation by 400 billion yuan [3]. - In December 2025, China's new social financing was 2.21 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were 910 billion yuan. The annual social financing scale increment in 2025 was 35.6 trillion yuan, 3.34 trillion yuan more than the previous year. At the end of December, M2 balance was 340.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%, and M1 balance was 115.51 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [3]. - The central bank will reduce the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans to 30% to support the destocking of the commercial real estate market [4]. - Trump plans to negotiate with foreign countries to ensure the supply of key minerals in the US, using a "price floor" mechanism instead of traditional percentage tariffs [5]. - Trump hopes that any military action against Iran will be a "quick and decisive strike" [5]. 3.2.品种观点 (Variety Views) - **Stock Index Futures**: On Thursday, the market fluctuated. Although the central bank released a loose signal after the market, in the short term, the index may continue to oscillate and adjust. Investors are advised to focus on the structure rather than the index and pay attention to the impact of the annual report performance forecast near the end of January [6]. - **Precious Metals**: In the Asia - Pacific market today, silver remained strong, but there was a significant divergence in the sector. Gold and silver continued to reach new highs, while platinum and palladium declined. After a continuous rise, the current technical adjustment is relatively benign. Investors can pay attention to the entry opportunities after the callback stabilizes [7]. - **Container Shipping Index**: Short - term long and short factors are intertwined, and the container shipping index shows a wide - range shock. The short - term EC2604 is expected to be in a volatile state. Spot enterprises are advised to hold hedging positions, and investors can pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities between the EC2604 and EC2608 contracts [9]. 3.3.未来24小时重点数据 (Key Data in the Next 24 Hours) - Tonight, pay attention to the US January New York Fed Manufacturing Index (previous value: - 3.9, forecast: 1), the US initial jobless claims for the week ended January 10 (previous value: 208,000, forecast: 215,000), and the US January SPGI Manufacturing PMI preliminary value (previous value: 51.8) [12]. - Tomorrow, pay attention to the speech by 2028 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid on monetary policy and economic prospects, and the US December industrial production monthly rate (previous value: 0.2%, forecast: 0.1%) [13].

航运日报 | 2026-01-13 2月合约交割结算价格逐步清晰，关注马士基1月最后一周报 价 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹1月第四周价格1685/2710；HPL 1月上半月报价1635/2635，1月下半月船 期报价1635/2635，2月上半月船期报价1735/2835. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC1月上半月价格1700/2840，1月下半月船期报价1700/2840；ONE 1月下半月船期报价 1680/2635,2月上半月船期报价1680/2635；HMM上海-鹿特丹1月下半月船期报价1733/3036. Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹1月下半月船期报价2309/3693，2月份船期价格2409/3893；EMC1月下半月船 期报价3030-3130美元/FEU；OOCL 1月上半月份船期报价2780-2830美元/FEU。 地缘端：马士基：将继续采取循序渐进的方式，逐步恢复通过苏伊士运河和红海的东西向航道航运。 静态供给：交付现状层面，截至2025年12月31日。2025年至今交付集装箱船舶268艘，合 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The valuation center of the February contract is continuously rising, and Maersk's quotes are slightly increasing. The EC2602 contract's valuation continues to climb as online quotes from MSC and Maersk rise in the fourth week of January. The 02 contract's valuation support is estimated to be between 1820 - 1920 points under relatively pessimistic assumptions. Near - term, attention should be paid to the price correction in the second half of January [1][5][7]. - Far - month contracts face pressure from the potential reopening of the Suez Canal, which may suppress their valuations, but the extent of the impact remains uncertain. Contracts in the off - season face valuation pressure, while contracts in June and August (slightly peak seasons) still have uncertain prospects. The delivery pressure of ultra - large vessels (over 17000 TEU) in the first half of 2026 is relatively small [7]. - The strategy suggests a bullish and volatile trend for the February contract, and there is currently no arbitrage opportunity [9]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Futures Prices - As of January 6, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures is 58,675.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 34,329.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1872.70, 1223.80, 1417.00, 1533.20, 1105.30, and 1313.20 respectively [8]. II. Spot Prices - Online quotes from various shipping companies show price fluctuations. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quote in the third week of January is 1635/2630, and in the fourth week it is 1680/2700. HPL's quotes also change over different periods. OA alliance's offline prices in the first half of January are around 2800 - 2900 dollars/FEU, and the actual freight rates are relatively firm [1][2][5]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU. In terms of future delivery expectations, the delivery pressure of ultra - large vessels in 2026 is relatively small, while the annual delivery volume of 17000 + TEU vessels in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships each year [3]. - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity in January is 318,600 TEU, in February it is 283,500 TEU, and in March it is 272,400 TEU. There are different numbers of empty sailings and TBNs (To Be Notified) in each month [4]. IV. Supply Chain - Geopolitically, Saudi Arabia has invited Yemeni local armed forces for dialogue, and the Southern Transitional Council has expressed its welcome. The potential reopening of the Suez Canal is expected to impact the freight rates of far - month contracts. Currently, some shipping routes have started to resume operations, such as CMA's FAL1 and FAL3 routes, and Maersk has tentatively resumed its Red Sea route [3][7]. V. Demand and European Economy - The cargo volume in December and January is at a relatively high level within the year. The delivery and settlement price of the February contract basically reflects the spot price center at the end of January. In normal years from 2017 - 2019, the SCFI Shanghai - Europe route freight rate was roughly between 600 - 1200 dollars/FEU, corresponding to SCFIS of about 600 - 1400 points [5][7].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) rose slightly this week. Christmas stocking demand is conducive to the recovery of the futures price, but due to the failure of the announced price increase to materialize, leading shipping companies have successively lowered the prices of a new round of containers, causing the previous freight rate increases to be partially reversed. Although the overall market sentiment has improved, the boosting effect of the traditional peak season may be weaker than expected. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [6][7][38] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The main contract price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures rose slightly this week. The EC2512 contract's trading volume and open interest both declined. The EC2602 contract had a weekly increase of 6.03%, while far - month contracts had increases of 1 - 2% [10][12][14] 2. News Review and Analysis - Ukraine's President Zelensky announced the details of the 20 - point draft of the Russia - Ukraine "peace plan", with the key territorial issue remaining unresolved. The EU decided to extend economic sanctions against Russia for another 6 months. The U.S. Q3 real GDP had a significant annualized quarterly - on - quarterly increase of 4.3%. The central bank's monetary policy committee suggested integrating incremental and existing policies, and the EU extended sanctions against Russia [17] 3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures contracts both shrank this week. The export container freight rate index rebounded slightly. Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, with a slight recovery in European - line capacity. The BDI and BPI declined, and the charter price of Panamax ships dropped. The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar converged [23][26][30] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The freight futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) rose slightly this week. The latest SCFIS European - line settlement freight rate index increased by 5.2% week - on - week. The SCFI rebounded for the second consecutive week. The manufacturing PMI in China showed a slight improvement in November, and terminal transportation demand recovered before Christmas. Only MSC and MSK have announced feasible spot quotes for January. The Red Sea resumption of navigation expectation has improved, and the euro - zone economy is expected to maintain its relative strength. However, the boosting effect of the peak season may be weaker than expected, and investors should focus on shipping companies' price - increase announcements [38][39]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 12 - month contract delivery settlement price is expected to be between 1600 - 1700 points, and the EC2602 contract will follow the real - time quotes. The far - month contracts face the risk of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, which may lead to a downward revision of their valuations. The strategy for the 12 - month contract is to expect it to fluctuate, while the EC2602 contract is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, and there is currently no arbitrage strategy [4][5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Prices - As of December 17, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts was 61,674.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 29,873.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1699.80, 1124.10, 1283.70, 1448.10, 1045.20, and 1632.00 respectively [7]. 2. Spot Prices - On December 12, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1538 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 1780 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 2652 US dollars/FEU. On December 15, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1510.56 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 924.36 points [7]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In December, the remaining 3 - week monthly average weekly capacity was 326,000 TEU, and in January, it was 322,700 TEU, and in February, it was 276,700 TEU. There were 4 TBNs in January (all from the OA alliance) and 9 TBNs and 2 blank sailings in February (both blank sailings from the OA alliance). In 2025, 250 container ships were delivered, with a total capacity of 2.018 million TEU. As of December 23, 2025, 75 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 1.1315 million TEU, and 12 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 253,800 TEU [3][7]. 4. Supply Chain - Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd launched the Cape of Good Hope network due to the ongoing turmoil in the Red Sea. There is no specific time for the Gemini east - west route to resume sailing through the Red Sea. The Gaza cease - fire mediation plan is advancing, and the Suez Canal is likely to resume operation in 2026, which may increase effective capacity supply and put downward pressure on freight rates [2][6]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The feedback from various surveys shows that the cargo volume is gradually recovering. The 2026 Spring Festival is one month later than in 2025, and there is uncertainty about whether the time for shipping companies to sign contracts and maintain prices will also be postponed [4][5].

1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The settlement price of the December contract is expected to be between 1600 - 1700 points, and the valuation center of the EC2602 contract is rising. The far - month contracts face the risk of valuation downward revision due to the possible resumption of the Suez Canal. The strategy suggests a volatile trend for the December contract and a slightly stronger volatile trend for the February contract, with no arbitrage strategy currently available [4][6][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes from various shipping companies show price increases in January. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam WEEK52 quote is 1500/2340, and its Shanghai - London port quote in the first week of January is 1680/2700/2800. Maersk and MSC have issued price increase letters for January [1][2]. - Geopolitical factors: Due to the ongoing turmoil in the Red Sea, Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd have launched a Cape of Good Hope network. There is no specific time for the Gemini east - west route to return to the Red Sea. The US is investigating Israel's possible violation of the cease - fire agreement [2]. 3.2 Dynamic Supply - The average weekly capacity from the remaining 3 weeks of December is 326,000 TEU, with 386,400 TEU, 290,900 TEU, and 300,700 TEU in WEEK51/52/53 respectively. The average weekly capacity in January is 322,700 TEU, and in February is 276,700 TEU. There are 4 TBNs in January and 9 TBNs and 2 blank sailings in February, all from the OA alliance [3]. 3.3 Contract Analysis - December contract: The settlement price is calculated as the arithmetic mean of the three - phase SCFIS on December 15th and 29th. The freight rate center in the first half of December was revised down to around 2100 - 2200 US dollars/FEU. The final settlement price is estimated to be between 1600 - 1700 points [4]. - EC2602 contract: The last trading day is February 9, 2026. The settlement price reflects the spot price center at the end of January. Maersk and MSC have announced price increases in January. The high - freight maintenance situation after the pre - Spring Festival shipping peak needs attention [4]. - Far - month contracts: The possibility of the Suez Canal resuming operation in 2026 is high, which may lead to an increase in effective capacity supply and a downward pressure on freight rates, causing the valuation of far - month contracts to be revised down [6]. 3.4 Market Data - As of December 16, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 63,344 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 36,307 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided. The SCFI and SCFIS prices of different routes are also announced [7]. - In 2025, it is a big year for container ship deliveries. As of December 23, 2025, 250 container ships with a total capacity of 2.018 million TEU have been delivered [7]. 3.5 Strategy - Unilateral: The December contract shows a volatile trend, and the February contract shows a slightly stronger volatile trend. - Arbitrage: No arbitrage strategy is currently available [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of MSC in the first half of January continued to rise, and attention should be paid to Maersk's quotes in the first week of the first half of January [1]. - The 12 - month contract delivery settlement price may be between 1600 - 1700 points, and the actual SCFIS announcement should be monitored [4]. - For the EC2602 contract, attention should be paid to the shipping companies' willingness to support prices under high capacity. If the price - supporting period is extended, the 2 - month contract may be at parity with the 12 - month contract [5]. - The far - month contracts face the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, and their valuations may be revised downward [6]. - The strategy suggests that the 12 - month contract will fluctuate, and the 2 - month contract will fluctuate with an upward bias, and there is no arbitrage opportunity at present [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping companies have different price trends. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price decreased from the third week of December to WEEK52, while HPL's price increased from the second half of December to the first half of January. MSC and other companies also released price increase letters for January [1][2]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: Due to the continuous turmoil in the Red Sea, Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd launched a Cape of Good Hope network, and there is no specific time to change the east - west route to pass through the Red Sea. The US is investigating whether Israel violated the cease - fire agreement [2]. 2. Dynamic Supply - The average weekly capacity in December was 326,000 TEU, 322,700 TEU in January, and 276,700 TEU in February. There were 4 TBNs in January and 9 TBNs and 2 blank sailings in February, all from the OA Alliance [3]. 3. Contract Analysis - **12 - Month Contract**: The delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of the three - phase SCFIS on December 15th, 22nd, and 29th. The freight rate center in the first half of December was revised down to around 2100 - 2200 US dollars/FEU, and the final delivery settlement price may be between 1600 - 1700 points [4]. - **EC2602 Contract**: The last trading day is February 9, 2026. The delivery settlement price reflects the spot price center at the end of January. Maersk and MSC have announced price increase letters for January, and attention should be paid to Maersk's quotes in the first half of January and the maintenance of high freight rates [5]. - **Far - Month Contracts**: The probability of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation in 2026 is high, which will increase the effective capacity supply and suppress the far - month contract freight rates and valuations [6]. 4. Market Data - As of December 15, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 63,961 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 38,062 lots. The closing prices of different contracts varied [7]. - In 2025, 250 container ships were delivered, with a total capacity of 2.018 million TEU. As of December 23, 2025, 75 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 12 ships of over 17,000 TEU were delivered [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The market demand is gradually improving, and the industry is waiting for Maersk's price offer in January. The 12 - month contract is expected to be volatile, while the February contract is expected to be volatile and bullish. The far - month contracts are under pressure from the potential resumption of the Suez Canal [1][9] - The delivery of container ships in 2025 is still at a high level, which may have an impact on the supply - demand relationship in the shipping market [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Price - As of December 11, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts for the container shipping index European line futures was 62,069.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 21,544.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1689.00, 1092.70, 1227.00, 1381.80, 1021.60, and 1653.10 respectively [8] II. Spot Price - On December 5, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1400/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was $1550/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was $2315/FEU. On December 8, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1509.10 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 960.51 points [8] III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In December, the remaining 4 - week monthly average capacity was 314,700 TEU, with capacities of 334,500, 289,600, 315,000, and 319,000 TEU respectively in weeks 50, 51, 52, and 53. In January, the monthly average capacity was 331,700 TEU. In February, the monthly average capacity was 262,900 TEU. There were 4 blank sailings in December and 4 TBNs in January, all from the OA alliance. Maersk added a new sailing vessel (MAERSK EINDHOVEN, 13092 TEU) in week 51 [4] - As of December 7, 2025, 245 container ships had been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.99 million TEU. Among them, 74 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU had been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.119 million TEU; 12 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU had been delivered, with a total capacity of 253,800 TEU [8] IV. Supply Chain - The cease - fire mediation plan in Gaza is advancing, and the probability of the Suez Canal resuming operation in 2026 is relatively high. If the canal resumes, the effective capacity supply will increase, which may further suppress freight rates. Currently, CMA's FAL1 route (Europe - Asia) will fully resume operation starting from January 2026, and the FAL3 route (Europe - Asia) has started a single - trial operation [7] V. Demand and European Economy - The feedback from various surveys shows that the current cargo volume is gradually recovering. The 12 - month contract delivery settlement price may be between 1600 - 1700 points, and Maersk's freight rate is likely to continue to rise at the beginning of January. The 2026 Spring Festival is one month later than in 2025, and there is uncertainty about whether the shipping companies' contract price - holding time will also be postponed [5][7]