1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of the main contract is volatile. Attention should be paid to Maersk's pricing attitude in the second week of March after the holiday. The 04 contract is expected to fluctuate before the holiday, and focus on the cargo - collection situation after the holiday. The success of the price increase in March is still unclear. If the price increase is successful at the beginning of March, the bottom valuation of the EC2604 contract may be raised to some extent [1][4]. - For the more distant contracts, the game on the resumption time is intense, and the volatility is expected to remain at a high level. The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. If it does not resume in the first half of 2026, the pressure on the capacity side in the first half of 2026 is expected to be relatively controllable, and the freight rate may still be expected to be high. Investors can pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on EC2606 and shorting on EC2610 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - As of February 11, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures was 57,483.00 lots, and the daily trading volume was 22,275.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1756.00, 1177.90, 1501.00, 1581.00, 1105.00, and 1395.00 respectively [6]. 3.2 Spot Prices - On February 6, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1403 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 1801 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 2530 US dollars/FEU. On February 9, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1657.94 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1155.66 points [6]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of January 31, 2026, 6 container ships with a total capacity of 46,950 TEU were delivered in 2026. For 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 2 ships with a total of 28,000 TEU were delivered; for ships over 17,000 + TEU, 1 ship with a capacity of 17,148 TEU was delivered. In terms of delivery expectations, for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 737,400 TEU (50 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 944,600 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1,212,000 TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For 17,000 + TEU ships, 192,900 TEU (8 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships) in 2028, and 1,261,500 TEU (77 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and the annual delivery volume of 17,000 + TEU ships in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships. Only 4 ships over 17,000 + TEU were delivered in the first half of 2026 (January - June) [2][3]. - **Dynamic Supply**: In the remaining three weeks of February, the average weekly capacity was 271,600 TEU, with capacities of 366,600, 259,800, and 188,300 TEU in Weeks 7, 8, and 9 respectively. In March, the average weekly capacity was 288,400 TEU, with capacities of 158,300, 365,200, 304,700, 320,400, and 293,500 TEU in Weeks 10 - 14 respectively. In April, the average weekly capacity was 274,700 TEU, with capacities of 295,500, 294,400, 263,500, and 245,400 TEU in Weeks 15 - 18 respectively. There were 13 blank sailings in February (6 by the OA alliance, 6 by the PA alliance, and 1 by the Gemini alliance), 7 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in March, and 1 blank sailing and 4 TBNs in April [3]. 3.4 Supply Chain - The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. COSCO management pointed out that there is still no clear schedule for the full resumption of the Red Sea. It may take 3 - 5 months from the attempt to resume to the full resumption. The resumption of the Red Sea requires multiple conditions to be met, including the assessment and approval of industry associations, the reduction of insurance premiums by insurance companies, the recognition of safety by customers, and the consensus within the alliance. Since mid - February 2026, Maersk's ME11 route will be structurally adjusted to transit through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. If possible, Maersk will also adjust the AE12 and AE15 services in subsequent stages to pass through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal [5]. 3.5 Demand and European Economy - The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate for products such as photovoltaics by the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation on January 8, 2026, may disrupt the shipping rhythm of relevant industries and further affect the pricing strategies of shipping companies. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the freight volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rate will be firmer than in normal years [4].

Core Viewpoint - The shipping index (European line) futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 1104.3 points, closing at 1123.4 points, reflecting a decrease of 2.53% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The shipping index has shown a fluctuating trend, with market expectations for resumption of shipping exerting pressure on index valuations. Shipping companies are lowering prices to stimulate cargo bookings, with January-end to early February market quotes ranging between $2400 and $2800 per FEU [2] - The Shanghai Shipping Exchange reported the latest SCFI for the European line at $1676 per TEU, down 2.5% from the previous period, while the average loading rate at Shanghai Port is close to full capacity, indicating a slight decline in freight rates [2] - Despite the downward pressure on freight rates, there is still marginal support for prices due to expectations of increased shipments of photovoltaic and other renewable energy products following adjustments in export tax rebate policies [2] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Yide Futures maintains a view of a generally fluctuating market, suggesting that current strategies should focus on hedging positions and monitoring market conditions closely [2] - Ruida Futures notes that multiple shipping companies are reducing prices, leading to weakened support for shipping futures prices. The geopolitical situation may improve, potentially affecting freight rates significantly [2] - The overall freight market is heavily influenced by seasonal demand, and investors are advised to exercise caution and control risks while tracking geopolitical, capacity, and cargo volume data [2]

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Spot prices have shown some weakness, and the valuation of the 02 contract is gradually becoming clear. The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for products like photovoltaics may disrupt the off - season nature of the 04 contract, and the recent volatility of the 04 contract is expected to increase. Maersk's attempt to resume navigation through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal will affect the expectations of more distant contracts [5][6][7] - The shipping industry is taking an important step towards recovery as Maersk resumes navigation through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal after two - year disruptions to global maritime trade caused by Houthi attacks [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Price - As of January 15, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European route futures was 61,764.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 46,912.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1719.00, 1202.70, 1421.80, 1524.90, 1111.00, and 1351.00 respectively [8] 3.2 Spot Price - Online quotes: For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam WEEK4 price is $1695/2730, WEEK5 is $1510/2420; HPL's January second - half shipping schedule is $1585/2535, February first - half is $1585/2535. Many other shipping companies' quotes are also provided [1][2][3] - The current estimated first - phase delivery settlement price corresponds to a spot price of approximately $2700 - 2800/FEU (initially estimated to be around 1900 points). The second - phase corresponds to an SCFIS preliminary estimate of $2500 - 2600/FEU. The final - phase index is currently unclear. If Maersk's WEEK6 price drops to $2200/FEU, the final February contract delivery settlement price may be around 1700 points [6] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static supply: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU were delivered in 2025. The delivery expectations for different ship sizes from 2026 - 2029 are provided. Overall, the delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, while the annual delivery volume of ships over 17000+TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships [4] - Dynamic supply: The monthly average weekly capacity in January was 328,400 TEU, in February was 277,300 TEU, and in March was 281,600 TEU. February had 4 TBNs and 6 blank sailings, and March had 4 blank sailings and 5 TBNs [5] 3.4 Supply Chain - Maersk will resume navigation through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal after the security situation stabilizes in the region, and will restart an independently - operated route service MECL on January 26, with the first - voyage ship departing from Salalah Port in Oman [3] 3.5 Demand and European Economy - The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for products like photovoltaics may disrupt the shipping rhythm of related industries, further affecting shipping companies' pricing strategies. It is necessary to monitor whether the cargo volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rates will be stronger than usual [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The central bank's interest - rate cut and quota increase in re - loans are expected to support key sectors and small - medium - sized enterprises, and the reduction of the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans aims to destock the commercial real estate market [2][3][4]. - In the short term, the stock index futures market may continue to oscillate and adjust, and investors should focus on the structure rather than the index, while also paying attention to the impact of the annual report performance forecast [6]. - The precious metals market shows a divergence, with gold and silver remaining strong and platinum and palladium lagging behind. Investors can pay attention to the entry opportunities after the callback stabilizes [7]. - The container shipping index is in a wide - range shock due to the interweaving of short - term long and short factors, and the short - term EC2604 is expected to be in a volatile state [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1.当日要闻 (Today's Key News) - The central bank will cut the re - loan and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points from January 19, 2026, and adjust other related policy rates [2]. - The central bank will increase the re - loan quota for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 500 billion yuan, set up a 1 - trillion - yuan re - loan for private enterprises, and increase the re - loan quota for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation by 400 billion yuan [3]. - In December 2025, China's new social financing was 2.21 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were 910 billion yuan. The annual social financing scale increment in 2025 was 35.6 trillion yuan, 3.34 trillion yuan more than the previous year. At the end of December, M2 balance was 340.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%, and M1 balance was 115.51 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [3]. - The central bank will reduce the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans to 30% to support the destocking of the commercial real estate market [4]. - Trump plans to negotiate with foreign countries to ensure the supply of key minerals in the US, using a "price floor" mechanism instead of traditional percentage tariffs [5]. - Trump hopes that any military action against Iran will be a "quick and decisive strike" [5]. 3.2.品种观点 (Variety Views) - **Stock Index Futures**: On Thursday, the market fluctuated. Although the central bank released a loose signal after the market, in the short term, the index may continue to oscillate and adjust. Investors are advised to focus on the structure rather than the index and pay attention to the impact of the annual report performance forecast near the end of January [6]. - **Precious Metals**: In the Asia - Pacific market today, silver remained strong, but there was a significant divergence in the sector. Gold and silver continued to reach new highs, while platinum and palladium declined. After a continuous rise, the current technical adjustment is relatively benign. Investors can pay attention to the entry opportunities after the callback stabilizes [7]. - **Container Shipping Index**: Short - term long and short factors are intertwined, and the container shipping index shows a wide - range shock. The short - term EC2604 is expected to be in a volatile state. Spot enterprises are advised to hold hedging positions, and investors can pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities between the EC2604 and EC2608 contracts [9]. 3.3.未来24小时重点数据 (Key Data in the Next 24 Hours) - Tonight, pay attention to the US January New York Fed Manufacturing Index (previous value: - 3.9, forecast: 1), the US initial jobless claims for the week ended January 10 (previous value: 208,000, forecast: 215,000), and the US January SPGI Manufacturing PMI preliminary value (previous value: 51.8) [12]. - Tomorrow, pay attention to the speech by 2028 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid on monetary policy and economic prospects, and the US December industrial production monthly rate (previous value: 0.2%, forecast: 0.1%) [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a long - only strategy for the February contract, and there is no specific arbitrage strategy [11] Core Viewpoints - The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate on photovoltaic products may change shipping companies' pricing behavior. Attention should be paid to Maersk's quotes in the last week of January and whether shipping companies will raise prices again in February [1][8] - The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate on photovoltaic products may disrupt the off - season nature of the April contract, and the volatility of the April contract is expected to increase. Investors are advised to participate with caution [9] - The delivery settlement price of the EC2602 contract is gradually becoming clear, and it is the arithmetic average of the settlement prices on January 26th, February 2nd, and February 9th, 2026 [8] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Prices - As of January 12, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for European routes was 62,141.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 88,935.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1748.00, 1280.80, 1485.10, 1565.20, 1154.00, and 1388.90 respectively [10] 2. Spot Prices - On January 9, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1719 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2218 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 3128 US dollars/FEU. On January 12, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1956.39 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1323.98 points [10] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU were delivered in 2025. The 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships delivered a total of 80 ships with a capacity of 1.213 million TEU, and the 17,000 + TEU ships delivered 13 ships with a capacity of 277,672 TEU. In terms of delivery expectations, the 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships are expected to deliver 781,200 TEU (53 ships) in 2026, 944,500 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1.212 million TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029; the 17,000 + TEU ships are expected to deliver 210,400 TEU (9 ships) in 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1.5734 million TEU (78 ships) in 2028, and 1.3755 million TEU (67 ships) in 2029 [4] - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity in January was 328,400 TEU, with capacities of 318,100, 361,000, and 306,000 TEU in Weeks 3, 4, and 5 respectively. In February, the average weekly capacity was 277,300 TEU, with capacities of 241,600, 348,800, 288,400, and 230,700 TEU in Weeks 6, 7, 8, and 9 respectively. In March, the average weekly capacity was 281,600 TEU. In February, there were 4 TBNs and 6 blank sailings (3 by the OA Alliance, 2 by the PA Alliance, and 1 by the Gemini Alliance). In March, there were 4 blank sailings and 5 TBNs [5] 4. Supply Chain - Maersk will gradually resume east - west shipping through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea [4] 5. Demand and European Economy - **Policy Impact**: On January 8, 2026, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate on photovoltaic products. From April 1, 2026, the export tax rebate on photovoltaic products will be completely cancelled. For battery products, the tax rebate rate will be reduced from 9% to 6% from April 1 to December 31, 2026, and then completely cancelled from January 1, 2027 [6] - **Market Data**: In October 2025, China's photovoltaic module exports to the European market were about 7.55 GW, a decrease of about 31% compared to September and an increase of 8% compared to the same month in 2024. From January to October, China's total exports of photovoltaic modules to the European market were about 91 GW, an 8% increase compared to the same period last year. Excluding the Netherlands, France ranked second in terms of single - month imports of Chinese photovoltaic modules in October, with imports of about 0.73 GW, a 76% increase compared to the same month in 2024, accounting for 10% of the total European market imports. From January to October, France imported 7.62 GW of modules, ranking second, and Belgium imported about 7.56 GW, ranking third [6]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The valuation center of the February contract is continuously rising, and Maersk's quotes are slightly increasing. The EC2602 contract's valuation continues to climb as online quotes from MSC and Maersk rise in the fourth week of January. The 02 contract's valuation support is estimated to be between 1820 - 1920 points under relatively pessimistic assumptions. Near - term, attention should be paid to the price correction in the second half of January [1][5][7]. - Far - month contracts face pressure from the potential reopening of the Suez Canal, which may suppress their valuations, but the extent of the impact remains uncertain. Contracts in the off - season face valuation pressure, while contracts in June and August (slightly peak seasons) still have uncertain prospects. The delivery pressure of ultra - large vessels (over 17000 TEU) in the first half of 2026 is relatively small [7]. - The strategy suggests a bullish and volatile trend for the February contract, and there is currently no arbitrage opportunity [9]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Futures Prices - As of January 6, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures is 58,675.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 34,329.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1872.70, 1223.80, 1417.00, 1533.20, 1105.30, and 1313.20 respectively [8]. II. Spot Prices - Online quotes from various shipping companies show price fluctuations. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quote in the third week of January is 1635/2630, and in the fourth week it is 1680/2700. HPL's quotes also change over different periods. OA alliance's offline prices in the first half of January are around 2800 - 2900 dollars/FEU, and the actual freight rates are relatively firm [1][2][5]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU. In terms of future delivery expectations, the delivery pressure of ultra - large vessels in 2026 is relatively small, while the annual delivery volume of 17000 + TEU vessels in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships each year [3]. - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity in January is 318,600 TEU, in February it is 283,500 TEU, and in March it is 272,400 TEU. There are different numbers of empty sailings and TBNs (To Be Notified) in each month [4]. IV. Supply Chain - Geopolitically, Saudi Arabia has invited Yemeni local armed forces for dialogue, and the Southern Transitional Council has expressed its welcome. The potential reopening of the Suez Canal is expected to impact the freight rates of far - month contracts. Currently, some shipping routes have started to resume operations, such as CMA's FAL1 and FAL3 routes, and Maersk has tentatively resumed its Red Sea route [3][7]. V. Demand and European Economy - The cargo volume in December and January is at a relatively high level within the year. The delivery and settlement price of the February contract basically reflects the spot price center at the end of January. In normal years from 2017 - 2019, the SCFI Shanghai - Europe route freight rate was roughly between 600 - 1200 dollars/FEU, corresponding to SCFIS of about 600 - 1400 points [5][7].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) rose slightly this week. Christmas stocking demand is conducive to the recovery of the futures price, but due to the failure of the announced price increase to materialize, leading shipping companies have successively lowered the prices of a new round of containers, causing the previous freight rate increases to be partially reversed. Although the overall market sentiment has improved, the boosting effect of the traditional peak season may be weaker than expected. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [6][7][38] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The main contract price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures rose slightly this week. The EC2512 contract's trading volume and open interest both declined. The EC2602 contract had a weekly increase of 6.03%, while far - month contracts had increases of 1 - 2% [10][12][14] 2. News Review and Analysis - Ukraine's President Zelensky announced the details of the 20 - point draft of the Russia - Ukraine "peace plan", with the key territorial issue remaining unresolved. The EU decided to extend economic sanctions against Russia for another 6 months. The U.S. Q3 real GDP had a significant annualized quarterly - on - quarterly increase of 4.3%. The central bank's monetary policy committee suggested integrating incremental and existing policies, and the EU extended sanctions against Russia [17] 3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures contracts both shrank this week. The export container freight rate index rebounded slightly. Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, with a slight recovery in European - line capacity. The BDI and BPI declined, and the charter price of Panamax ships dropped. The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar converged [23][26][30] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The freight futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) rose slightly this week. The latest SCFIS European - line settlement freight rate index increased by 5.2% week - on - week. The SCFI rebounded for the second consecutive week. The manufacturing PMI in China showed a slight improvement in November, and terminal transportation demand recovered before Christmas. Only MSC and MSK have announced feasible spot quotes for January. The Red Sea resumption of navigation expectation has improved, and the euro - zone economy is expected to maintain its relative strength. However, the boosting effect of the peak season may be weaker than expected, and investors should focus on shipping companies' price - increase announcements [38][39]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 12 - month contract delivery settlement price is expected to be between 1600 - 1700 points, and the EC2602 contract will follow the real - time quotes. The far - month contracts face the risk of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, which may lead to a downward revision of their valuations. The strategy for the 12 - month contract is to expect it to fluctuate, while the EC2602 contract is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, and there is currently no arbitrage strategy [4][5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Prices - As of December 17, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts was 61,674.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 29,873.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1699.80, 1124.10, 1283.70, 1448.10, 1045.20, and 1632.00 respectively [7]. 2. Spot Prices - On December 12, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1538 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 1780 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 2652 US dollars/FEU. On December 15, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1510.56 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 924.36 points [7]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In December, the remaining 3 - week monthly average weekly capacity was 326,000 TEU, and in January, it was 322,700 TEU, and in February, it was 276,700 TEU. There were 4 TBNs in January (all from the OA alliance) and 9 TBNs and 2 blank sailings in February (both blank sailings from the OA alliance). In 2025, 250 container ships were delivered, with a total capacity of 2.018 million TEU. As of December 23, 2025, 75 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 1.1315 million TEU, and 12 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 253,800 TEU [3][7]. 4. Supply Chain - Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd launched the Cape of Good Hope network due to the ongoing turmoil in the Red Sea. There is no specific time for the Gemini east - west route to resume sailing through the Red Sea. The Gaza cease - fire mediation plan is advancing, and the Suez Canal is likely to resume operation in 2026, which may increase effective capacity supply and put downward pressure on freight rates [2][6]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The feedback from various surveys shows that the cargo volume is gradually recovering. The 2026 Spring Festival is one month later than in 2025, and there is uncertainty about whether the time for shipping companies to sign contracts and maintain prices will also be postponed [4][5].

1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The settlement price of the December contract is expected to be between 1600 - 1700 points, and the valuation center of the EC2602 contract is rising. The far - month contracts face the risk of valuation downward revision due to the possible resumption of the Suez Canal. The strategy suggests a volatile trend for the December contract and a slightly stronger volatile trend for the February contract, with no arbitrage strategy currently available [4][6][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes from various shipping companies show price increases in January. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam WEEK52 quote is 1500/2340, and its Shanghai - London port quote in the first week of January is 1680/2700/2800. Maersk and MSC have issued price increase letters for January [1][2]. - Geopolitical factors: Due to the ongoing turmoil in the Red Sea, Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd have launched a Cape of Good Hope network. There is no specific time for the Gemini east - west route to return to the Red Sea. The US is investigating Israel's possible violation of the cease - fire agreement [2]. 3.2 Dynamic Supply - The average weekly capacity from the remaining 3 weeks of December is 326,000 TEU, with 386,400 TEU, 290,900 TEU, and 300,700 TEU in WEEK51/52/53 respectively. The average weekly capacity in January is 322,700 TEU, and in February is 276,700 TEU. There are 4 TBNs in January and 9 TBNs and 2 blank sailings in February, all from the OA alliance [3]. 3.3 Contract Analysis - December contract: The settlement price is calculated as the arithmetic mean of the three - phase SCFIS on December 15th and 29th. The freight rate center in the first half of December was revised down to around 2100 - 2200 US dollars/FEU. The final settlement price is estimated to be between 1600 - 1700 points [4]. - EC2602 contract: The last trading day is February 9, 2026. The settlement price reflects the spot price center at the end of January. Maersk and MSC have announced price increases in January. The high - freight maintenance situation after the pre - Spring Festival shipping peak needs attention [4]. - Far - month contracts: The possibility of the Suez Canal resuming operation in 2026 is high, which may lead to an increase in effective capacity supply and a downward pressure on freight rates, causing the valuation of far - month contracts to be revised down [6]. 3.4 Market Data - As of December 16, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 63,344 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 36,307 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided. The SCFI and SCFIS prices of different routes are also announced [7]. - In 2025, it is a big year for container ship deliveries. As of December 23, 2025, 250 container ships with a total capacity of 2.018 million TEU have been delivered [7]. 3.5 Strategy - Unilateral: The December contract shows a volatile trend, and the February contract shows a slightly stronger volatile trend. - Arbitrage: No arbitrage strategy is currently available [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of MSC in the first half of January continued to rise, and attention should be paid to Maersk's quotes in the first week of the first half of January [1]. - The 12 - month contract delivery settlement price may be between 1600 - 1700 points, and the actual SCFIS announcement should be monitored [4]. - For the EC2602 contract, attention should be paid to the shipping companies' willingness to support prices under high capacity. If the price - supporting period is extended, the 2 - month contract may be at parity with the 12 - month contract [5]. - The far - month contracts face the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, and their valuations may be revised downward [6]. - The strategy suggests that the 12 - month contract will fluctuate, and the 2 - month contract will fluctuate with an upward bias, and there is no arbitrage opportunity at present [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping companies have different price trends. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price decreased from the third week of December to WEEK52, while HPL's price increased from the second half of December to the first half of January. MSC and other companies also released price increase letters for January [1][2]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: Due to the continuous turmoil in the Red Sea, Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd launched a Cape of Good Hope network, and there is no specific time to change the east - west route to pass through the Red Sea. The US is investigating whether Israel violated the cease - fire agreement [2]. 2. Dynamic Supply - The average weekly capacity in December was 326,000 TEU, 322,700 TEU in January, and 276,700 TEU in February. There were 4 TBNs in January and 9 TBNs and 2 blank sailings in February, all from the OA Alliance [3]. 3. Contract Analysis - **12 - Month Contract**: The delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of the three - phase SCFIS on December 15th, 22nd, and 29th. The freight rate center in the first half of December was revised down to around 2100 - 2200 US dollars/FEU, and the final delivery settlement price may be between 1600 - 1700 points [4]. - **EC2602 Contract**: The last trading day is February 9, 2026. The delivery settlement price reflects the spot price center at the end of January. Maersk and MSC have announced price increase letters for January, and attention should be paid to Maersk's quotes in the first half of January and the maintenance of high freight rates [5]. - **Far - Month Contracts**: The probability of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation in 2026 is high, which will increase the effective capacity supply and suppress the far - month contract freight rates and valuations [6]. 4. Market Data - As of December 15, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 63,961 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 38,062 lots. The closing prices of different contracts varied [7]. - In 2025, 250 container ships were delivered, with a total capacity of 2.018 million TEU. As of December 23, 2025, 75 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 12 ships of over 17,000 TEU were delivered [7].