正文 摘要 2026年1月6日第一财经研究院中国高频经济活动指数（YHEI）为1.13，较2025年12月30日上升0.05。具体来看，截至1月6日的一周内，工业相关指标"沿 海煤炭运价指数"上升0.13，是YHEI走高的重要原因；"进口干散货运价指数"则与一周前水平基本接近（1.15）。 国家统计局公布2025年12月采购经理指数。12月，制造业PMI为50.1%，高于上月0.9个百分点，为2025年4月以来首次回到扩张区间，制造业景气水平有 所回升。其中，高技术制造业、装备制造业和消费品行业PMI分别高于上月2.4、0.6和1.0个百分点至52.5%、50.4%和50.4%，均高于荣枯线。 从具体指标来看，2025年12月，制造业市场需求显著回升，新订单指数由上个月的49.2%升至50.8%。新出口订单指数则高于上月1.4个百分点至49.0%，也 有一定改善。伴随着市场需求上升，制造业企业生产活动持续增多，12月，生产指数高于上月1.7个百分点至51.7%；对原材料的需求也相应地有所增加， 采购量指数高于上月1.6个百分点至51.1%，回到扩张区间。12月，供货商配送时间指数则高于上月0.1个百分点至50 ...

中国大陆出发减少16%、印度出发减少19%、韩国出发减少5%、台湾出发减少24%、日本 出发减少19%。有观点指出，2024年11月存在加征关税之前的抢搭末班车运输，2025年出 现报复性减少…… 美国调查公司笛卡尔数据（Descartes Datamyne）的统计数据显示，11月从亚洲发往美国 的海上集装箱运输量同比减少6.7%，降至160万4016个（换算成20英尺集装箱）。运输量 连续3个月低于上年。除中国大陆出发的运输量放缓拉低整体之外，印度出发也持续减少。 中国大陆出发的运输量同比减少16%，连续3个月减少2位数，中美对立导致货物运输停滞不 前。美国在8月底对印度启动追加关税，11月印度出发的运输量减少19%，连续2个月减少2 位数。 韩国出发（减少5%）和新加坡出发（减少3%）等的运输也表现低迷。台湾出发（减少 24%）和日本出发（减少19%）也出现负增长。有观点指出，2024年11月因美国当选总统 特朗普提出高关税政策，存在加征关税之前的抢搭末班车运输，2025年出现了报复性减少。 受美国转向从中国以外采购的动向影响，越南等国的对美集装箱运输势头强劲。越南出发同比大幅增长 31%。泰国（增长28 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【集运指数欧线周报（EC）】 落地不佳航司继续宣涨1月运价 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-08 卢钊毅 从业资格证号：F3171622 投资咨询证号：Z0021177 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 集运指数：落地不佳航司继续宣涨1月运价 影响因素 驱动 主要逻辑 现货运价 利多 12月下旬MSK报价2400、HPL报价2050；CMA报价3550。 MSK针对1月涨价函3500。 政治经济 利空 【1】全球主要班轮公司 CMA CGM 宣布，其 INDAMEX 航线 在往返印度/巴基斯坦与美国东海岸的正向与回程航次中，将全面改为通过 苏伊士运河 （Suez Canal） 航行。这一决定被视为集装箱船大规模重返 红海航道 的重要进展信号。【2】穿越曼德海峡（Bab el Mandeb）这一关键航道的通行量 （全船型）已达到 自 2024 年 1 月以来的最高水平，进一步印证了业界关于"全面重返红海"的情绪正在升温。【3】欧洲相关航线受供 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump has determined the next Fed Chair nominee, likely Kevin Hassett, which is expected to increase market risk appetite and weaken the US dollar [2][13]. - After a sharp decline, the odds of the bond market have improved, but there is a risk of further adjustment as policy expectations rise [3][23]. - Due to floods in palm oil - producing areas, the supply pressure is expected to ease, and palm oil prices may rebound [4][25]. - CSPT's decision to cut copper production in 2026 and other factors are expected to drive copper prices to continue to rise [4][45]. - OPEC+ has decided to suspend production increases in Q1 2026, and short - term oil prices will maintain a volatile trend [5][67]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - A data center cooling system problem in Chicago led to a trading halt at CME, causing disruptions in multiple markets. Gold rose about 1.5% and silver soared 5% on Friday, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts. The Shanghai and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventories are falling, and the CME trading halt has reduced market liquidity. It is recommended to reduce positions [10]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Japanese Finance Minister said the rapid yen depreciation is not driven by fundamentals. Trump has determined the next Fed Chair nominee, and it is expected that Hassett will be elected, leading to increased market risk appetite and a weaker US dollar [11][13]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Ukraine's new negotiation representative went to the US to discuss ending the war. The CME system failure caused trading interruptions. The US rate - cut expectations are rising, and the market risk appetite has improved. The US stock index is expected to continue to repair and show a strong - biased volatile trend [15][16]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's November official manufacturing PMI was 49.2, slightly up from the previous value. The National Development and Reform Commission held a private enterprise symposium. The stock market trading volume has shrunk, and there may be no trend - based market in the short term. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in stock indices [18][19]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's November official manufacturing PMI was 49.2, in line with expectations. The central bank conducted a 3013 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 737 billion yuan on the day. The bond market has a risk of further adjustment as policy expectations rise. It is recommended to short long - term bond varieties on rebounds [21][23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Continuous heavy rain in Indonesia's Sumatra has caused floods and landslides. The supply pressure of palm oil is expected to ease, and prices may rebound. It is recommended to consider short - term long positions [25]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - As of the end of November, about 30 sugar mills in Guangxi and Yunnan have started production. The sugar production in Guangxi in November is expected to be 100,000 tons, far lower than last year. The Zhengzhou sugar 1 - month contract is expected to oscillate, and the main funds will gradually shift to the 5 - month contract [26][31]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In October, China's cotton product exports decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The EU's clothing imports from China increased in Q3. The US cotton export signing and shipment increased in the week ending October 16. The Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term and cautiously optimistic in the long term [32][35]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Malaysia plans to add 48.4 million tons of steel production capacity from 2030 - 2035. China's November automobile dealer inventory warning index was 55.6%, up year - on - year and month - on - month. Steel prices are expected to oscillate with a slight rebound, and it is recommended to take an oscillatory approach [36][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Oil mills maintained a high operating rate. Argentina's soybean planting was 39% complete as of November 27. The US sold 312,000 tons of soybeans to China. International markets should focus on China's soybean purchases and South American weather, and domestic soybean meal is expected to oscillate [39][41]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between corn starch and tapioca starch has widened. Corn starch is expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to operate in the price - difference range in the medium - short term and expect it to strengthen in the long term [42][43]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of November 27, the average grain - selling progress in Northeast China was 26%, and in North China was 25%, both faster than last year. Corn futures contracts are expected to have different trends, and it is not recommended to short against the trend in the short term [43][44]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - CSPT agreed to reduce copper production capacity by over 10% in 2026. Chile's October copper production decreased by 7% year - on - year. Copper prices are expected to rise, and it is recommended to buy on dips [45][48]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Hainan's new - energy power price was cleared at the upper limit. Polysilicon prices are under pressure, and it is recommended that investors operate with caution due to high volatility [49][51]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The operating rates of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan are declining. The market is expected to oscillate between 8800 - 9500 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to focus on range - bound operations [52][54]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On November 27, LME lead had a large - scale backwardation. The old - standard electric bicycle CCC certificates will be cancelled from December 1. The lead market is short of supply and strong in demand, and it is recommended to buy on dips [55][56]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On November 27, LME zinc had a large - scale contango. Antamina's zinc ore tender price was below $30/dry ton. Zinc prices are likely to rise, and it is recommended to observe buying opportunities on the right side and hold long - spread positions [57][58]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Frontier Lithium released its mid - term report. The lithium carbonate market may face short - term callback pressure, and it is recommended to short on highs in the short term and buy on lows in the medium term [59][62]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia simplified the RKAB approval process. The nickel market is in surplus, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate at the current level [63][64]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On November 28, the EUA main contract closed at €83.26/ton. EU carbon prices are supported by auction suspension and reduced supply in 2026 but may be suppressed by warm weather [65]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 2026. US crude oil production reached a record high in September. Short - term oil prices will maintain a volatile trend, and it is recommended to pay attention to the Russia - Ukraine negotiation progress [67][70]. 3.2.17 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The UK plans to cancel the small - package tariff exemption in 2029. The SCFI index rose. The container freight market is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to consider light - position long positions in the 02 contract [71][72].

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to continue showing a pattern of consolidation, supported by rising domestic policy expectations and the verification of Q3 performance, indicating rich structural opportunities [1] - Investors are advised to maintain strategic focus and actively seek quality assets during the volatile market, with technology growth remaining a long-term market theme [1] - Key sectors to watch for investment opportunities include communication equipment, electronic components, semiconductors, and consumer electronics [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous metal sector has shown strong performance in 2023, with 108 out of 141 listed companies reporting revenue growth year-on-year, and 96 companies showing an increase in net profit [3] - The industry is expected to see rising prices for resource products in Q4, despite supply disruptions for major metals [3] - The humanoid robot industry is approaching a critical phase, with Tesla's Gen3 and Optimus developments supporting market expectations [3] Group 3 - The electronic industry reported a 15% year-on-year increase in overall revenue and a 46% increase in net profit for Q3 [5] - Demand for AI data centers, mobile phones, and automotive sectors remains strong, with local companies gaining market share in computing power [5] - The container shipping market has seen active price increases, with companies adjusting strategies to meet stable export demand [5] Group 4 - The short-term trend for the market is weak, with no significant new capital entering, leading to a lack of profit-making opportunities [7] - The Shanghai Composite Index is in a downward trend, with individual stocks experiencing larger declines, indicating a continued range-bound market [11] - Goldman Sachs predicts a growth phase for the Chinese stock market, driven by AI, anti-involution, and overseas expansion, with potential returns of about 30% by the end of 2027 [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "oscillating", with a short - term (within 1 month), medium - term (1 - 3 months), and long - term (over 3 months) amplitude of - 5% - 5% [4][87] 2. Core View of the Report - The container shipping index (EC) showed a weak oscillation this week due to the Houthi's halt of attacks and poor freight rate implementation. The future trend depends on the implementation of the December price increase notices, and it is difficult to predict the decline of the main contract freight rate for now. The trading strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for both unilateral and arbitrage trading, while paying attention to geopolitical and macro - policy disturbances [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Logic** - **Spot Freight Rates**: In late November, MSK quoted 2020, HPL quoted 2850, etc.; in early December, MSK quoted 3200, HPL quoted 3250, etc. There is an obvious differentiation in the price hikes among shipping companies [4] - **Political and Economic Factors**: The last trading Monday for the container shipping index (European Line) futures EC2602 contract in 2026 is February 9. Iran seized an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman, and the Houthi officially announced the halt of maritime attacks against Israel. A ship that was supposed to go around the Cape of Good Hope is actually passing through the Red Sea/Suez Canal [4] - **Capacity Supply**: The weekly average capacity deployment in September was 290,000, 245,000 in October, 265,000 in November, and is expected to be 290,000 in December. The overall loading rate is lower than the same period in the past two years [4] - **Demand**: There are still expected 1 - 2 price hikes during the peak season. The loading rate shows differentiation, with PA + MSC having a lower loading rate and a higher probability of price cuts, while GEMINI's loading rate is gradually increasing at low prices [4] - **Investment View and Strategy**: The investment view is oscillating. The trading strategy is to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading, and pay attention to geopolitical and macro - policy disturbances [4] 3.2 Price - The report presents the price trends of European, US West, US East, and Mediterranean routes through line charts, including SCFIS, SCFI, and CCFI indices [6][7][8] 3.3 Static Capacity - **Order Volume**: It shows the order volume and new - order volume of container ships in different loading capacities from 2015 - 2025 [13] - **Delivery Volume**: The delivery volume and demolition volume of container ships in different loading capacities from 2020 - 2025 are presented, along with future delivery volume forecasts from 2023 - 2029 [16][17][22] - **Ship Prices**: It includes the scrap prices, new - building prices, and second - hand prices of container ships in different loading capacities and time periods [29][31][35] - **Existing Capacity**: The existing capacity of container ships is analyzed in terms of total capacity, capacity by loading capacity, age structure, and idle/retrofit ratio [44][47][51] 3.4 Dynamic Capacity - **Shipping Schedule**: The total capacity deployment and capacity deployment of different alliances (PA + MSC, GEMINI, OCEAN, etc.) from Shanghai to European basic ports are presented from week 13 to week 28 [59][61][63] - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: The situation of container ships with installed, being - installed desulfurization towers, including capacity, number of ships, and average age/duration, is shown [69][70][73] - **Idle Capacity**: The idle capacity of container ships in terms of total capacity, capacity by loading capacity, and proportion is presented from 2014 - 2025 [77][78][79]

Report 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Core View - Presents the latest data on stock index futures spreads including price differences between futures and spot, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety ratios, along with their changes from the previous day and historical percentile rankings [1] Summary by Category - **Futures - Spot Price Differences**: F futures - spot price difference is - 7.17, H is - 4.87, IC is - 86.29, and IM is - 112.18 with various percentage changes and historical percentile rankings [1] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different inter - period spreads such as next month - current month, quarterly month - current month, etc. are provided for IF, IH, IC, and IM, showing their values, changes, and historical percentile rankings [1] - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios like CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc. are given with their values, changes, and historical percentile rankings [1] Report 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Core View - Displays the latest data on treasury bond futures spreads including basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads, along with their changes from the previous day and historical percentile rankings [2] Summary by Category - **Basis**: TS basis is 1.5208, TF is 1.2620, T is 1.3841, and TL is 1.2692 with corresponding changes and historical percentile rankings [2] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for TS, TF, T, and TL such as current quarter - next quarter, current quarter - distant quarter, etc. are presented with their values, changes, and historical percentile rankings [2] - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads like TS - TF, TS - T, etc. are provided with their values, changes, and historical percentile rankings [2] Report 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report Core View - Provides the latest data on precious metals including domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, price ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, and inventory and position data, along with their changes [4] Summary by Category - **Futures Closing Prices**: Domestic AU2512 contract closed at 961.22 yuan/gram, AG2512 at 12588 yuan/kilogram; foreign COMEX gold at 4174.50, COMEX silver at 52.23 dollars/ounce with corresponding changes [4] - **Spot Prices**: London gold at 4170.87, London silver at 52.33 dollars/ounce, Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T + D at 958.67 yuan/gram, silver T + D at 12563 yuan/kilogram with corresponding changes [4] - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis is - 2.55, silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract basis is - 25 with corresponding changes and historical percentile rankings [4] - **Price Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver ratio is 79.93, Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver ratio is 76.36 with corresponding changes [4] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.11%, 2 - year is 3.58%, 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield is 1.83%, US dollar index is 99.18, offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.0974 with corresponding changes [4] - **Inventory and Position**: Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory is 90426, silver inventory is 584014 kilograms; COMEX gold and silver inventories, registered warrants, and ETF positions are provided with their changes [4] Report 4: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report Core View - Offers the latest data on the container shipping industry including spot quotes, freight indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data, along with their changes [5] Summary by Category - **Spot Quotes**: Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rates from different shipping companies show various changes [5] - **Freight Indices**: SCFIS (European route) settled at 1504.80, SCFIS (US West route) at 1329.71; Shanghai Export Container Freight Index and its sub - indices show different changes [5] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: EC2512 (main contract) futures price is 1782.3 with a 1.88% increase, and the basis (main contract) is 21.7 with a - 33.64% change [5] - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply remains unchanged; Shanghai port on - time rate, port calls, monthly export amount, overseas economic indicators, and OECD leading indicators show different changes [5]

Freight Rates - As of November 4, the freight rates for Shanghai-Europe range from $1,320 to $3,360 per FEU, with Maersk at $1,320-$2,065 per FEU and CMA at $1,460-$4,008 per FEU [1] Shipping Index - As of November 3, the SCFIS European line index is reported at 1,208.71 points, a decrease of 7.92% week-on-week; the West Coast of the US line index is at 1,267.15 points, an increase of 14.43% [2] - The SCFI composite index as of October 31 is at 1,550.7 points, up 10% week-on-week; Shanghai-Europe freight rates increased by 8% to $1,344 per TEU [2] Market Fundamentals - As of November 4, the global container shipping capacity exceeds 33.35 million TEU, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.34% [3] - The Eurozone's composite PMI for October is at 52.2, while the US manufacturing PMI for October is at 48.7, below the neutral 50 mark [3] Market Logic - The futures market has seen a decline, with the main contract closing at 1,848.2 points, down 5%; current spot market conditions remain weak, making it difficult for the main contract to sustain upward momentum [4] Trading Recommendations - Short-term market is expected to fluctuate; a strategy of buying on dips for the main contract is suggested [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the shipping industry, particularly focusing on the European shipping market, highlighting price fluctuations, supply and demand dynamics, and geopolitical influences affecting the market [3][5][10]. Pricing Performance - The SCFI European line index showed a significant increase, with the December contract rising by 5.08% to 1871 points, marking a 15.32% increase over the past 20 trading days, with a trading volume of 34,500 contracts and a turnover of 3.18 billion yuan [3]. - The SCFI European line price reached 1246 USD/TEU, reflecting a weekly increase of 101 USD/TEU, indicating a price stabilization effort by shipping companies [5]. - The pricing for major shipping lines such as Maersk and CMA has seen substantial increases, with Maersk's large container rates rising by 550 USD to 2350 USD and CMA maintaining rates around 2731 USD [6]. Supply and Turnover - The shipping capacity statistics indicate a high operational capacity in the last week of October, with the GEMINI alliance increasing its capacity due to delayed schedules, resulting in a total capacity of 350,900 TEU [9]. - November's initial capacity remains relatively high at 328,000 TEU, but is expected to decrease significantly in the following weeks, potentially supporting price stabilization in mid-November [9]. - By December, the capacity is projected to be around 250,000 TEU, which may help in building a rolling pool to support price increases [9]. Demand Aspects - The demand for the European line is following seasonal trends, with a typical decline in demand from August to October, but a decrease in booking pressure is expected as shipping companies prepare for the year-end peak season [17]. - The container throughput at domestic ports reached 6.431 million TEU in the 42nd week, reflecting a 3.61% increase month-on-month, indicating a slight recovery in demand [17]. - The macroeconomic indicators show a rebound in the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI to 50, with service sector PMI rising to 52.6, suggesting a positive outlook for demand [17]. Market Perspectives - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict in Gaza, are expected to delay the resumption of shipping routes in the Red Sea, which may influence market valuations [20]. - The new shipbuilding market is in an upward cycle, indicating that oversupply may continue to exert pressure on freight rates [20]. - The market sentiment is currently mixed, with expectations of price increases in November driven by shipping companies' pricing strategies and changes in cargo volumes [20][21]. Additional Insights - Recent price increases by major shipping companies have boosted market confidence for November price hikes, with Maersk's pricing strategy being particularly influential [22]. - The geopolitical landscape, including trade tensions between the US and China, continues to impact shipping demand, with expectations of a decline in trade volumes as a result of tariffs and other regulatory measures [21][22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The US government shutdown continues, causing the US dollar index to fluctuate. The stock market shows different trends, with US stock indices rising due to tech companies' capital expansion, while the Shanghai Composite Index faces a resistance level after breaking through 4000 points. [1][2][3] - In the commodity market, factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy rumors, and corporate actions affect prices. For example, rumors of China's control over syrup imports are beneficial to the domestic sugar market, and the short - term de - stocking of lithium carbonate supports its price. [4][5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US government shutdown may last until November, leading to various negative impacts. The US consumer confidence index in October was 94.6. Gold prices fluctuated downward, breaking through the $4000 mark. Short - term gold lacks upward momentum and may still decline. [12][13] - Investment advice: Wait for a better time to buy gold as it has not stabilized yet. [13] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - South Korea's business confidence index declined in October. The US House Speaker poured cold water on Trump's 2028 candidacy. The US Senate failed to pass a bill to end the government shutdown. The US government shutdown continues, putting downward pressure on the US dollar index, which is expected to fluctuate. [14][15] - Investment advice: Expect the US dollar to trade in a range. [16] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The full text of the "15th Five - Year Plan" was released, setting economic and social development goals and promoting the development of strategic emerging industries. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 4000 points but then declined. It may be a short - term resistance level, but there may be medium - term upward momentum. [16][17] - Investment advice: Allocate evenly among long positions in various stock indices. [17] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - OpenAI reached an agreement to transform into a for - profit organization, with Microsoft holding 27% of the shares. The US private sector's average new jobs in the past four weeks were about 14,250. The market is turning cautious before the interest rate meeting, but tech giants' capital expansion supports the index. [18][19] - Investment advice: Be bullish on US stocks with a bias towards a long - position strategy. [19] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 4753 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to be slightly weak in the short term, but there will be better buying opportunities. In November, with weak fundamentals and expected central bank actions, broad - based monetary policy may drive the bond market. [20] - Investment advice: Look for opportunities to go long on treasury bond futures at low prices. [21] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - ANEC expects Brazil's soybean exports in October to be 7 million tons. Affected by the expected Sino - US agreement, CBOT soybean prices rose, driving up the cost of imported soybeans and soybean meal prices in China. [22] - Investment advice: Monitor Sino - US leaders' meetings and China's actual purchases of US soybeans as soybean meal prices follow the external market and import costs. [22] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Pakistan is facing a sugar crisis, and the government is accused of yielding to sugar mills. Brazil's increased corn - ethanol production has pressured sugar prices. India announced an 11 - month sugar domestic sales quota of 2 million tons. Rumors of China's control over syrup and premixed powder imports may benefit the domestic sugar market. [23][25][27] - Investment advice: The rumors are positive for Zhengzhou sugar in the short term. The price may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to relevant policies at the national sugar conference. [28] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Shennong Group's full - cost in September was 12.5 yuan/kg. Market sentiment for secondary fattening has increased, driving up prices slightly. However, due to insufficient capacity reduction and speculative demand, the supply - surplus situation remains. [29][31] - Investment advice: Short - sell near - month contracts on rebounds and focus on the LH2603 contract. Consider reverse - spread opportunities. [31] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Jujubes) - The price of jujubes in Hebei's Cui'erzhuang market has weakened. The futures price of the main contract has declined. The supply is in the normal drying period, and the demand is weak. [31][32] - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and focus on price negotiations and acquisition progress in the production areas. [32] 3.2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The steam coal market in northern ports remained stable on the 28th. With the end of the railway maintenance, port inventories may accumulate. Coastal power consumption has declined seasonally, and coal prices may weaken slightly in 1 - 2 weeks but remain strong in the fourth quarter. [33] - Investment advice: Expect steam coal prices to weaken slightly in the short term but remain strong in the fourth quarter. [33] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Onslow Iron has been operating at full capacity for three months. Iron ore prices are in a volatile range. Demand is weak, but there is still some spot buying. The price is expected to remain volatile with upward pressure. [34] - Investment advice: Iron ore prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with limited upside. [34] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch enterprises in different regions had varying theoretical profits on October 28. The 11 - contract CS - C spread fluctuated narrowly. The 01 - contract may see a spread repair similar to the 11 - contract. [35][36] - Investment advice: Expect a spread - repair market for the 01 - contract similar to the 11 - contract. [36] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Domestic corn prices are weak, with prices in ports and Northeast deep - processing plants falling, and prices in North China deep - processing plants fluctuating. Futures prices are narrowly volatile. [37] - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term as short - selling has a poor risk - return ratio, and it may be too early to go long. [38] 3.2.9 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - The production schedules of major white - goods in November 2025 have decreased. Chongqing Iron and Steel has changed its controlling shareholder. The steel price is volatile, with limited upward momentum due to weakening demand and inventory pressure. [39][40][41] - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading approach and be cautious about upward rebounds. [42] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Shuangliang Energy Saving's Q3 report shows a significant reduction in losses. Polysilicon spot prices are stable, with some orders being delivered. Terminal demand has weakened since late October, but considering upstream inventory and ongoing policies, prices are expected to remain stable. [43][44] - Investment advice: Buy on dips if the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. Take profits if the futures price is at a significant premium. [45] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead 0 - 3 spread was at a discount of $33.8/ton on October 27. The LME inventory decreased, and the outer - market price rose. The domestic lead price was slightly affected, with short - term supply shortages and long - term demand uncertainties. [46] - Investment advice: Be cautious when going long on lead in the short term. Consider positive - spread opportunities for the spread and be cautious in cross - border trading. [47] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc 0 - 3 spread was at a premium of $212.89/ton on October 27. Peru and Chile's zinc concentrate exports have changed. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic zinc market has supply and demand challenges. The zinc price may be volatile and slightly bullish in the short term. [48][49][51] - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. Look for medium - term positive - spread opportunities and be cautious in cross - border trading. [51] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - In October, the operating rate and output of industrial silicon in Yunnan decreased. The inventory is expected to be difficult to deplete in November and may decrease in December. [52][53] - Investment advice: Buying industrial silicon at low prices may be more cost - effective. [54] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Anglo American's Q3 copper production increased, and an Australian investment company is involved in the strategic metals market. The macro environment supports copper prices, but high prices have affected downstream restocking. The spot price may remain at a discount. [55][56] - Investment advice: Adopt a buy - on - dips strategy for single - side trading and a wait - and - see approach for spreads. [57] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Albemarle simplifies its business by selling a stake in Ketjen. Lithium carbonate inventory is decreasing, and the price is supported in the short term, but further upward movement depends on supply disruptions. [58][59] - Investment advice: Use a range - trading strategy in the short term and consider short - selling opportunities when demand peaks. Take profits on the LC2511 - LC2601 reverse - spread and look for positive - spread opportunities for LC2601 against more distant contracts. [59] 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts increased on October 28. The short - term market is affected by Sino - US relations and the interest - rate cycle. The global nickel inventory is accumulating, and the price may fluctuate within a narrow range above the cost. [60][61] - Investment advice: Consider going long on nickel at low prices for allocation purposes. Speculators can consider selling out - of - the - money puts and buying deep - out - of - the - money calls. [61] 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US API crude oil inventory decreased. Oil prices fell, and the risk premium has declined. The impact of sanctions on Russian oil supply is uncertain. [62][63] - Investment advice: Expect crude oil prices to fluctuate in the short term and monitor geopolitical situations. [63] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - Iran's Marjan methanol plant has restarted. Methanol prices have fallen with increased positions. The market is bearish, and the price may continue to decline. [64] - Investment advice: Hold short positions and consider adding short positions for aggressive investors. Set a profit - taking target between 2150 - 2200 yuan/ton. [65] 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market is stable, with some varieties showing a strengthening trend. The futures price is volatile. The market may have limited upward space due to poor supply - demand fundamentals. [66][67] - Investment advice: The pulp price may be relatively strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited. [67] 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of high - concentration caustic soda in Shandong has declined. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is limited. The price of caustic soda may continue to fall. [68][69] - Investment advice: Short - sell caustic soda at high prices but be cautious when chasing short positions due to the large discount in the futures price and potential demand from new alumina capacity. [69] 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in the Shahe area is fluctuating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is average. High inventory levels are suppressing the price. [70] - Investment advice: The downward space for soda ash is limited in the short term, and attention should be paid to coal prices and new - capacity releases. [70] 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market is stable. The futures price has rebounded due to short - covering. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand is weak. [71][72] - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach as the terminal demand is weak, and short - selling at the current level is risky due to potential policy impacts and the futures discount to the spot price. [72] 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA closing price on October 28 was 51.73 yuan/ton, a 3.69% decline. The trading volume has increased slightly, but the price has fallen significantly. The supply - demand structure is balanced and loose, and the price may fluctuate widely during the compliance period. [73] - Investment advice: Expect CEA prices to fluctuate widely in the short term. [74] 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - A collision accident occurred to a 13,000 TEU container ship in the Pearl River Estuary. The MSK W46 line's opening price decreased, and other shipping companies may follow suit in November. The 12 - contract price may face resistance to upward breakthroughs. [75] - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading strategy and avoid chasing long positions at the current level. [76]