Workflow
集运期货合约(EC2508
icon
Search documents
永安期货集运早报-20250825
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 07:46
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for late August to early September (week 35 - 36). The final average price in week 35 was $2,550 (equivalent to 1,800 points), and in week 36, the current average quote is $2,250 (1,550 points). Most shipping companies face pressure to secure cargo at the end of the month, while MSK has relatively less pressure due to significant price cuts. [2][3][16][17] - The overall shipping capacity in September has been reduced due to the additional suspension of OA Alliance's FAL8 in week 37. The weekly average shipping capacity in September and October 2025 is 300,000 and 290,000 TEU respectively. The market situation in September is relatively loose, and the subsequent driving force remains weak. However, the valuation in October is approaching the annual low (1,250 - 1,300), with limited downside potential. Investors can consider long - positions in the December contract. [2][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2508 closed at 2,127.7 with a 0.13% increase; EC2510 at 1,309.0 with a 1.21% decrease; EC2512 at 1,661.2 with a 3.50% decrease; EC2602 at 1,465.0 with a 3.17% decrease; EC2604 at 1,264.5 with a 1.94% decrease; EC2606 at 1,430.0 with a 2.73% decrease. [2][16] - **Open Interest Changes**: The open interest of EC2508 decreased by 92, EC2510 by 38, EC2512 increased by 1,086, EC2602 increased by 52, EC2604 increased by 120, and EC2606 increased by 20. [2][16] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread between EC2508 - 2510 was 818.7, showing a daily increase of 18.7 and a weekly increase of 103.6; the spread between EC2510 - 2512 was - 352.2, with a daily increase of 44.2 and a weekly increase of 64.4; the spread between EC2512 - 2602 was 196.2, with a daily decrease of 12.2 and a weekly decrease of 55.6. [2][16] 3.2 Index Information - **TTI**: Updated on August 18, 2025, it was 2,180.17 points, down 2.47% from the previous period and 2.71% from two periods ago. [2][16] - **SCH (European Line)**: Updated on August 22, 2025, it was $1,668 per TEU, down 8.31% from the previous period and 7.19% from two periods ago. [2][16] - **CCFI**: Updated on August 22, 2025, it was 1,757.74 points, down 1.85% from the previous period and 0.48% from two periods ago. [2][16] - **NCFI**: Updated on August 22, 2025, it was 1,083.74 points, down 8.85% from the previous period and 5.49% from two periods ago. [2][16] 3.3 Recent European Line Quotations - **Week 35**: The average price was $2,575 (equivalent to 1,770 points). BA Alliance quoted $2,500, MSK started at $2,300 and then rose to $2,490, and OA Alliance quoted between $2,700 - $2,800. [3][17] - **Week 36**: The average price was $2,250 (1,550 points). PA Alliance quoted between $2,200 - $2,300, MSK started at $2,100 and then rose to $2,200, and OA Alliance quoted between $2,300 - $2,400. [3][17] 3.4 Related News - On August 24, a senior Hamas official stated that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu was deliberately undermining negotiations and insisting on continuing the offensive to achieve political goals. [4][18] - On August 21, the US and the EU reached an agreement on the "Reciprocal, Fair, and Balanced Trade Agreement Framework." The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods such as cars, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and wood, while some products like scarce natural resources, aircraft and parts, and generic drugs are exempt. The EU promised to cancel tariffs on US industrial products, provide preferential market access for US seafood and agricultural products, and planned to purchase $750 billion worth of US liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear products by 2028, along with $40 billion worth of US AI chips. EU companies will also invest an additional $600 billion in US strategic industries. [4][18]
集运早报-20250730
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 05:11
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Under high - capacity pressure and with demand entering the off - season, freight rates will face downward pressure in the future [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Futures Contracts - EC2508 closed at 2111.0, down 3.31%; EC2510 closed at 1460.0, down 2.85%; EC2512 closed at 1735.0, down 0.16%; EC2602 closed at 1521.3, down 1.28%; EC2604 closed at 1370.0, unchanged; EC2606 closed at 1504.9, up 0.76% [2] - For the month - to - month spreads, EC2508 - 2510 was 651.0, with a daily decrease of 29.4 and a weekly decrease of 51.7; EC2510 - 2512 was - 275.0, with a daily decrease of 40.0 and a weekly decrease of 110.2; EC2512 - 2602 was 213.7, with a daily increase of 16.9 and a weekly decrease of 10.8 [2] Spot Indices - SCFIS on July 28, 2025, was 2316.56 points, down 3.50% from the previous period [2] - SCFI on July 25, 2025, was 2090 dollars/TEU, up 0.53% from the previous period [2] - CCFI on July 25, 2025, was 1787.24 points, down 0.90% from the previous period [2] - NCFI on July 25, 2025, was 1422.9 points, down 1.20% from the previous period [2] - TCI on July 18, 2025, was 1054.56 points, down 0.75% from the previous period [2] European Line Supply and Demand - In August and September (tentatively), the average weekly capacity is 325,000 and 324,000 TEU respectively. The capacity in weeks 32, 33, 34, and 35 is 330,000, 305,000, 350,000, and 316,000 TEU respectively, with high capacity pressure especially in the second half of August [2] - Supported by the base cargo of shipping companies, the loading rate of shipping companies in late July was not under great pressure. In early August, the base cargo still provided some support, but the cargo volume declined marginally and gradually entered the off - season [2] Recent European Line Quotations - In July, the quotations remained stable at around 2400 points. In August, the PA Alliance dropped 200 - 300 to 3100 dollars; MSK's initial quotation decreased slightly (2900 - 3000 dollars) and then increased slightly; OA continued to use 3400 - 3500 dollars. The quotation in week 31 was about 3300 dollars (equivalent to 2300 points on the futures market). On Tuesday, HPL cut the price by 200 to 3100 dollars [3] News - On July 29, China and the US reached a consensus in the Stockholm talks to extend the previously suspended 24% reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days. The final agreement needs to be approved by President Trump [4] - On July 29, Israel was considering a full - scale military occupation of the Gaza Strip [4] - On July 29, the US State Department refused to hold a "two - state solution" meeting on the Gaza issue [4] - On July 29, German government sources said that the German government would approve the 2026 budget draft on Wednesday, including a record 126.7 billion euro investment [5]