Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall strategy maintains the logic of shorting on rallies because the situation in September is generally loose and the subsequent driving force continues to be weak. The contract for October is currently at a discount of about 450 points to the spot, and there is still expected to be room for further decline. The valuation of far - month contracts is unclear, more affected by driving factors, and due to low positions, they are greatly affected by macro and capital behaviors [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Contracts**: For EC futures contracts, on August 20, 2025, EC2508 closed at 2127.3 with a 1.87% increase; EC2510 closed at 1370.3 with a 0.20% decrease; EC2512 closed at 1775.0 with a 0.82% decrease; EC2602 closed at 1535.4 with a 0.16% decrease; EC2604 closed at 1323.1 with a 0.59% decrease; EC2606 closed at 1492.3 with a 0.17% decrease [2] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: For example, the spread of EC2508 - 2510 was 757.0, up 7.1 from the previous week; the spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 404.7, with a weekly change of - 37.7; the spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 239.6, up 27.5 from the previous week [2] Spot Market - **Indices**: As of August 18, 2025, the index was at 2180.17, down 2.47% from the previous period. As of August 15, 2025, the SCFI (European Line) was at 1820 dollars/TEU, down 7.19% from the previous period; the CCFI was at 1790.47 points, down 0.48% from the previous period; the NCFI was at 1188.69 points, down 5.49% from the previous period [2] Weekly Market Conditions - **Booking Situation**: Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for the end of August (week 34 - 35). The average price for week 34 was 2850 US dollars (2000 points), and the current average quote for week 35 is 2625 US dollars (equivalent to 1840 points). Among them, the PA Alliance quoted 2500 US dollars, MSK 2300 US dollars, and the OA Alliance 2700 - 2800 US dollars [2] - **Cargo Receiving Situation**: In week 33, MSK had better cargo - receiving, the OA Alliance was average, and the PA Alliance was poor. In week 34, cargo - receiving significantly declined, and some shipping companies faced pressure to receive cargo [2] - **Capacity Adjustment**: The overall capacity in September will be reduced because the PA Alliance will add a sail - stop in week 37. The average weekly capacities in August, September (tentative), and October (tentative) 2025 are 328,000, 312,000, and 315,000 TEU respectively. After counting all TBNs as sail - stops, they are 528,000, 297,000, and 283,000 TEU respectively [2] Recent European Line Quotations - **Week 34**: The final average price was 2850 US dollars (2000 points) [3] - **Week 35**: The current average quote is 2575 US dollars (equivalent to 1770 points). The PA Alliance quoted 2500 US dollars, MSK initially opened at 2300 US dollars and then raised it to 2490 US dollars, and the OA Alliance quoted 2700 - 2800 US dollars [3] - **Week 36**: On Tuesday, MSK opened at 2100 US dollars, and some routes rose to 2200 US dollars; CMA's quote dropped from 3420 to 2620 US dollars [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Under high - capacity pressure and with demand entering the off - season, freight rates will face downward pressure in the future [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Futures Contracts - EC2508 closed at 2111.0, down 3.31%; EC2510 closed at 1460.0, down 2.85%; EC2512 closed at 1735.0, down 0.16%; EC2602 closed at 1521.3, down 1.28%; EC2604 closed at 1370.0, unchanged; EC2606 closed at 1504.9, up 0.76% [2] - For the month - to - month spreads, EC2508 - 2510 was 651.0, with a daily decrease of 29.4 and a weekly decrease of 51.7; EC2510 - 2512 was - 275.0, with a daily decrease of 40.0 and a weekly decrease of 110.2; EC2512 - 2602 was 213.7, with a daily increase of 16.9 and a weekly decrease of 10.8 [2] Spot Indices - SCFIS on July 28, 2025, was 2316.56 points, down 3.50% from the previous period [2] - SCFI on July 25, 2025, was 2090 dollars/TEU, up 0.53% from the previous period [2] - CCFI on July 25, 2025, was 1787.24 points, down 0.90% from the previous period [2] - NCFI on July 25, 2025, was 1422.9 points, down 1.20% from the previous period [2] - TCI on July 18, 2025, was 1054.56 points, down 0.75% from the previous period [2] European Line Supply and Demand - In August and September (tentatively), the average weekly capacity is 325,000 and 324,000 TEU respectively. The capacity in weeks 32, 33, 34, and 35 is 330,000, 305,000, 350,000, and 316,000 TEU respectively, with high capacity pressure especially in the second half of August [2] - Supported by the base cargo of shipping companies, the loading rate of shipping companies in late July was not under great pressure. In early August, the base cargo still provided some support, but the cargo volume declined marginally and gradually entered the off - season [2] Recent European Line Quotations - In July, the quotations remained stable at around 2400 points. In August, the PA Alliance dropped 200 - 300 to 3100 dollars; MSK's initial quotation decreased slightly (2900 - 3000 dollars) and then increased slightly; OA continued to use 3400 - 3500 dollars. The quotation in week 31 was about 3300 dollars (equivalent to 2300 points on the futures market). On Tuesday, HPL cut the price by 200 to 3100 dollars [3] News - On July 29, China and the US reached a consensus in the Stockholm talks to extend the previously suspended 24% reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days. The final agreement needs to be approved by President Trump [4] - On July 29, Israel was considering a full - scale military occupation of the Gaza Strip [4] - On July 29, the US State Department refused to hold a "two - state solution" meeting on the Gaza issue [4] - On July 29, German government sources said that the German government would approve the 2026 budget draft on Wednesday, including a record 126.7 billion euro investment [5]