Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the spot freight rates on European routes continued to decline. However, with shipping companies announcing cancellations during the National Day holiday and price increases for mid - to late - October, the bullish sentiment was boosted to some extent, and the futures market fluctuated widely. The overall cargo volume in the market was low, and shipping companies continued to strengthen their efforts to attract cargo to maintain the loading rate of routes. Freight rates on routes such as Europe and North America continued to decline, while the futures market was supported by optimistic sentiment, so the basis between futures and spot prices narrowed rapidly [2]. - As of the end of September, the three - week average of the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) was 1,271.88 points, a month - on - month decrease of 40.43%. The average value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) for European routes in September was 1,123/TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 37.48%, and the average value for the US West Coast was 1,913.75/TEU, a month - on - month increase of 4.35%. The average value of the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for European routes in September was 718.28/TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 38.42%, and the average value for the US West Coast was 1,091.90/TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 0.71% [3]. - The trading strategy suggests that the main contract remains weak, while the far - month contracts are stronger, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers are advised to try to go long on the 12 and 02 contracts around 1,600. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - losses [3]. - In October, the booking freight rates in the spot market are expected to continue to decline, and the decline is significant. The SCFIS European route settlement freight rate index has continued to decline sharply. Shipping companies have also continuously lowered their quotes for European routes from late September to October. Therefore, the EC2510 futures price has further declined to a lower level. The basis between futures and spot prices continues to narrow, and it is expected that the month - on - month decline of the SCFIS European route settlement freight rate index next week will reach about 8%, while the EC2510 futures price is expected to have a small further downward space at the bottom [3]. - Future contradictions include: whether the price increases announced by shipping companies for mid - to late - October can be implemented under weak demand is still in question; the Middle East situation remains volatile, but its overall impact on the futures market is gradually decreasing [4]. - On the demand side, the overall demand in the eurozone remains weak. The European Central Bank decided to keep the three key interest rates in the eurozone unchanged. The consumer price inflation in the eurozone remained stable in August, indicating that the European Central Bank can postpone further interest rate cuts to later this year if necessary. The year - on - year final value of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August was 8.0%, the same as in July, slightly lower than the expected 2.1% increase, indicating that the recent price pressure in the eurozone is moderate, and demand is neither overheating nor in deflation [4]. - On the supply side, the overall supply of capacity on the Asia - Europe route exceeds demand. Although shipping companies have reduced capacity during and around the holiday according to previous years' practices, the overall market capacity scale is still significantly higher than the same period last year. Therefore, although the market will experience a short - term shortage of capacity after the holiday, it is expected to remain in a loose state overall [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - In early September, the futures market rose rapidly, possibly affected by some shipping companies' announcements of cancellations during the National Day holiday and the renewed tension in the Middle East situation. In the middle of the month, as shipping companies continuously lowered spot freight rates and relevant indices continued to decline significantly, the futures market quickly fell. In the late month, although the SCFIS and other relevant indices continued to decline, the futures market rebounded slightly and then fluctuated after the China - US economic and trade talks and shipping companies' announcements of price increases for mid - to late - October [6]. Supply - Demand Analysis of Container Shipping Supply Side - **Capacity Situation**: Recently, although shipping companies on the Asia - Europe route have tried to control capacity through blank sailings, the overall scale of cancellations is lower than in previous years, and the actual capacity supply remains sufficient. Shipping companies are actively attracting cargo to improve the loading rate. However, the global container ship order volume has reached 10.4 million TEU, accounting for 31.7% of the existing capacity, and the scrapping volume is at a low level, indicating significant pressure from the continuous release of new capacity. The supply - demand relationship has weakened marginally, the over - capacity situation has not been effectively alleviated, and market freight rates are still under pressure [12]. - **Port Situation**: The operating conditions of major ports in China have shown signs of improvement compared with last month. Although the throughput of Shanghai Port has continued to decline slightly, the throughput of Ningbo Port has increased rapidly. The port congestion situation has not improved, and the global on - time performance rate has continued to decline [19]. Demand Side - **China's Foreign Trade**: As of July 2025, China's cumulative export volume reached 2.130363 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.10%, and the cumulative import volume reached 1.446849 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%. Among them, the cumulative export to the EU was 317.418 billion yuan, and the cumulative import from the EU was 149.191 billion yuan. The cumulative export to the US was 251.372 billion yuan, and the cumulative import from the US was 85.851 billion yuan. In July, among China's "new three" exports, except for the increase in the growth rate of electric vehicles compared with the same period in 2024, the others still decreased. Compared with the same period in 2024, China's exports to the EU have increased steadily, while imports have decreased year - on - year. China's trade with the US has been mainly affected by continuous US tariffs, and both imports and exports have continued to decline compared with the same period [29]. - **Foreign Trade in Europe and the US**: The preliminary value of the eurozone's manufacturing PMI in September was 49.5, falling below the boom - bust line again, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The preliminary value of the service PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding expectations of 50.5. The preliminary value of the eurozone's composite PMI in September was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in September was - 9.2, with an expected value of - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in September was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [31]. - The online quotes of ONE for the first ten - day period of October have been further adjusted downward to $1,235/FEU, and other shipping companies have also maintained a low level of $1,400/FEU. However, shipping companies have announced price increase plans for after mid - October, and it is currently announced that the price will rise to around $2,000/FEU. Whether the price increase can be implemented depends on the post - holiday loading situation. At the same time, the price increase situation will also affect the medium - to long - term freight rate level, and there is still uncertainty in the market [33]. Summary No relevant content provided other than the above - mentioned information in the summary section.