投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【集运指数欧线周报（EC）】 提涨落地不佳航司继续宣涨1月运价 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-29 卢钊毅 从业资格证号：F3171622 投资咨询证号：Z0021177 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 集运指数：提涨落地不佳航司继续宣涨1月运价 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 【1】Gemini 联盟（MSK、HPL）MSK 1 月第 2 周运价涨至 2540 美元 / FEU，环比开舱涨 40 美元，对应线下装载率整体抬升；HPL-SPOT 1 月上半月价格 | | | | 从 3535 美元 / FEU 回落 500 美元至 3035 美元 / FEU，1 月下半月线上仍有回升至 3535 美元 / FEU 的涨价预期。【2】OCEAN 联盟（OOCL、CMA）OOCL | | 现货运价 | 利多 | 1 月上半月运价环比持平，维持 3180-3230 美元 / FEU ...

集运指数（欧线）观点： 近月震荡，远月关注加沙谈判进展 国泰君安期货研究所 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 首席分析师/能化联席行政负责人·黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 日期：2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述 01 对于2604合约，逢高空配的胜率相对更高，在供需面进一步放宽、运价中枢不断下移的背景下，04底部估值或可锚定2025年SCFIS指数最低点1031点，暂时不宜 做更悲观的估值预期。后续1~2个月的上行风险在于：2-4主力合约换月补贴水风险；春节节前提保减仓风险；节中地缘反复风险；以及节后船司宣涨的风险。 对于2610合约，关注加沙第二阶段停火谈判进展，中长期逢高布空。 策略 单边：2604 维持滚动做空；中长期逢高布空2610。 本周集运指数（欧线）观点总结：近月震荡，远月关注加沙谈判进展 过去一周，1月运力绝对值变化不大，约为31.3万TEU/周，不再有待定航次，主要变化在于：PA联盟第5周FE4航线由待定确认为正常派船，但第4周FE3由正常派 ...

集运指数（欧线）观点： 轻仓布多02做交割；04关注补贴水风险 国泰君安期货研究所 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 首席分析师/能化联席行政负责人·黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述 01 本周集运指数（欧线）观点总结：轻仓布多02做交割；04关注补贴水风险 过去一周，1月周均运力维持31.8万TEU/周，待定航次缩减至1艘（31.8未计入这1艘待定航次运力），主要变化在于：①Gemini联盟新增加班船"BARCELONA MAERSK"（17480TEU，新船），该船在中国挂靠青岛、宁波和盐田，不挂靠上海，其中宁波ETD为1月27日（第5周）；②OA联盟，上周3艘待定航次中的2艘均确认为空 班（CES 第3和第5周）；1艘暂记为正常派船（AEU7 第4周），由CSCL MARS执行；此外，受船期延误影响，AEU7第2周出现被动空班。③PA联盟第5周FE4航线由正常派 船改为待定。整体来看，与上周日船期相比，第1、3周运力没 ...

2025 年 12 月 18 日 供需面进一步宽松，运费中枢下移 ---2026 年集运指数（欧线）期货行情展望 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujiegtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 报告导读： 安 期 货 研 究 所 2026 年，我们认为集运指数（欧线）期货价格中枢下移、波动率继续收敛或是大概率事件，背后原因则是供应端的增量逐步消化完红 海危机带来的绕航"红利"，需求侧全球海运贸易增速或将有所放缓。供应来看，2026 年欧线预计将接收 8~14 艘新船，新船的投入仍将以 升级船型、填补少数航线缺口为主，同时也能使船司拥有更多富裕运力抵抗堵港造成的运力不足问题，预计明年空班难度会更加困难。需求 侧来看，若中美关税政策无较大变动，美国在上半年维持刚性补库的概率相对更大，消费端无大幅上行驱动意味着进口商不存在强补库动能 驱动；而欧洲进口货量需求或仍有韧性，但需要关注进口增速的边际变化；季节性特征大概率得以延续，7-8 月和 12-1 月传统旺季货量仍 然有支撑。整体而言，2026 年欧线供需双增、但供需面进一步 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The container shipping index (European line) showed a weak oscillation yesterday. The main 2602 contract closed at 1387.7 points, down 0.69% with a reduction of 1089 lots; the 2512 contract closed at 1612.9 points, down 0.98%; the far - month contracts continued to trade on the resumption of navigation, with declines exceeding 2%. The short - term market is mainly trading on weak reality and will oscillate at a low level. The strategy is to wait and see for the 02 contract and hold short positions for the 04 contract [10][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: EC2512 closed at 1779.7, up 0.69%; EC2602 closed at 1568.6, down 0.54%; EC2604 closed at 1142.1, down 0.45%. The spread between EC2512 and EC2604 is 637.6, and the spread between EC2602 and EC2604 is 426.5 [1] - **Freight Index**: The SCFIS European route was at 1639.37 points, up 20.7% week - on - week; the SCFIS US West route was at 1107.85 points, down 10.5% week - on - week. The SCFI European route was at $1367/TEU, down 3.5% bi - weekly; the SCFI US West route was at $1645/FEU, down 9.8% bi - weekly [1] - **Spot Freight Rates**: For the 50th week, the FAK average of the Gemini Alliance was about $2150/FEU; the OA Alliance was about $2350/FEU; the PA Alliance was about $2150/FEU. The expected market FAK average for the 50th week after adjustment is about $2220/FEU, roughly corresponding to 1570 - 1600 points [11] - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was at 100.20, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was at 7.11 [1] 3.2 Macro News - Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had a tense private conversation, with significant differences in their policies towards Israel [8] - Due to safety concerns, Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd have no specific schedule to change the "Gemini" east - west route to Red Sea navigation. They will closely monitor the situation in the region and resume the Suez Canal - based route network when safety conditions allow [9] 3.3 Market Analysis - In terms of fundamentals, the market did not reach the situation of "one cabin is hard to find" at the end of November and early December this year. In December, the first half - month had 2 cancelled sailings with an average weekly capacity of 32.4 million TEU/week; the second half - month had 2 cancelled sailings and one 13,000 - TEU additional ship from Maersk, with an average weekly capacity of 31.8 million TEU/week. The market is trading on the downward price drive from the second week of December to January. The short - term market is mainly trading on weak reality and will oscillate at a low level [12]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：船务资讯） 2025年前三季度，阳明海运累计实现营业收入新台币1262.6亿元（约40.5亿美元），同比减少25.4%； 毛利为新台币222.9亿元（约7.2亿美元），同比下降63.7%；营业利润为新台币155.3亿元（约5.0亿美 元），同比下降71.4%；税前净利为新台币213.4亿元（约6.8亿美元），同比下降66.8%；净利润为新台 币150.0亿元（约4.8亿美元），同比下降71.1%；归属于母公司股东的净利润为新台币148.1亿元（约4.8 亿美元），同比下降71.3%，基本每股盈利为4.24新台币。 公司指出，与2024年同期相比，运价下跌是导致盈利能力减弱的主要原因。尽管整体利润出现下滑，阳 明海运前三季度的营业利润率仍维持在12.3%。在全球贸易政策不确定性延续、地缘政治风险上升的背 景下，公司通过维持班期稳定与提升运营效率，努力支撑业务稳健运行。 单看第三季度，阳明海运实现营业收入新台币420.9亿元（约13.5亿美元），同比下降42.2%，但环比增 长8.9%；营业利润为新台币44.1亿元（约1.4亿美元），同比下降86.3%，营业利润率为10.5%；第三季 度净 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral [4][16]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, but there was a year-on-year decline in revenue and net profit. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 167.6 billion RMB, a decrease of 4.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 27.07 billion RMB, down 29.0% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 58.5 billion RMB, down 20.4% year-on-year, and net profit was 9.53 billion RMB, down 55.1% year-on-year [1][7]. - The company's container shipping volume showed positive growth year-on-year, with a total of 6.9 million TEUs shipped in Q3, an increase of 4.9%. However, the supply-demand imbalance led to a significant decline in shipping rates, with the average CCFI down 39.5% year-on-year [1][10]. - The port business demonstrated steady growth, achieving a throughput of 113.28 million TEUs in the first three quarters of 2025, up 5.6% year-on-year. The throughput from controlled terminals was 25.04 million TEUs, an increase of 2.0% [2][10]. - The company is focused on shareholder returns, having distributed a mid-term dividend of 0.56 RMB per share, representing 50% of its net profit for the first half of the year. Additionally, a new share buyback plan has been announced, aiming to repurchase between 50 million to 100 million shares at a price not exceeding 14.98 RMB per share, with an expected total amount of 749 million to 1.498 billion RMB [2][12]. Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts revenue for 2025 to be 218.66 billion RMB, a decrease of 6.5% year-on-year, with net profit expected to be 31.08 billion RMB, down 36.7% year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 2.01 RMB [3][14]. - The EBIT margin is expected to be 15.6% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 12.4% [3][14]. - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in net profit for 2026 and 2027, with estimates of 23.29 billion RMB and 22.07 billion RMB respectively [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the spot freight rates on European routes continued to decline. However, with shipping companies announcing cancellations during the National Day holiday and price increases for mid - to late - October, the bullish sentiment was boosted to some extent, and the futures market fluctuated widely. The overall cargo volume in the market was low, and shipping companies continued to strengthen their efforts to attract cargo to maintain the loading rate of routes. Freight rates on routes such as Europe and North America continued to decline, while the futures market was supported by optimistic sentiment, so the basis between futures and spot prices narrowed rapidly [2]. - As of the end of September, the three - week average of the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) was 1,271.88 points, a month - on - month decrease of 40.43%. The average value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) for European routes in September was 1,123/TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 37.48%, and the average value for the US West Coast was 1,913.75/TEU, a month - on - month increase of 4.35%. The average value of the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for European routes in September was 718.28/TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 38.42%, and the average value for the US West Coast was 1,091.90/TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 0.71% [3]. - The trading strategy suggests that the main contract remains weak, while the far - month contracts are stronger, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers are advised to try to go long on the 12 and 02 contracts around 1,600. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - losses [3]. - In October, the booking freight rates in the spot market are expected to continue to decline, and the decline is significant. The SCFIS European route settlement freight rate index has continued to decline sharply. Shipping companies have also continuously lowered their quotes for European routes from late September to October. Therefore, the EC2510 futures price has further declined to a lower level. The basis between futures and spot prices continues to narrow, and it is expected that the month - on - month decline of the SCFIS European route settlement freight rate index next week will reach about 8%, while the EC2510 futures price is expected to have a small further downward space at the bottom [3]. - Future contradictions include: whether the price increases announced by shipping companies for mid - to late - October can be implemented under weak demand is still in question; the Middle East situation remains volatile, but its overall impact on the futures market is gradually decreasing [4]. - On the demand side, the overall demand in the eurozone remains weak. The European Central Bank decided to keep the three key interest rates in the eurozone unchanged. The consumer price inflation in the eurozone remained stable in August, indicating that the European Central Bank can postpone further interest rate cuts to later this year if necessary. The year - on - year final value of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August was 8.0%, the same as in July, slightly lower than the expected 2.1% increase, indicating that the recent price pressure in the eurozone is moderate, and demand is neither overheating nor in deflation [4]. - On the supply side, the overall supply of capacity on the Asia - Europe route exceeds demand. Although shipping companies have reduced capacity during and around the holiday according to previous years' practices, the overall market capacity scale is still significantly higher than the same period last year. Therefore, although the market will experience a short - term shortage of capacity after the holiday, it is expected to remain in a loose state overall [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - In early September, the futures market rose rapidly, possibly affected by some shipping companies' announcements of cancellations during the National Day holiday and the renewed tension in the Middle East situation. In the middle of the month, as shipping companies continuously lowered spot freight rates and relevant indices continued to decline significantly, the futures market quickly fell. In the late month, although the SCFIS and other relevant indices continued to decline, the futures market rebounded slightly and then fluctuated after the China - US economic and trade talks and shipping companies' announcements of price increases for mid - to late - October [6]. Supply - Demand Analysis of Container Shipping Supply Side - **Capacity Situation**: Recently, although shipping companies on the Asia - Europe route have tried to control capacity through blank sailings, the overall scale of cancellations is lower than in previous years, and the actual capacity supply remains sufficient. Shipping companies are actively attracting cargo to improve the loading rate. However, the global container ship order volume has reached 10.4 million TEU, accounting for 31.7% of the existing capacity, and the scrapping volume is at a low level, indicating significant pressure from the continuous release of new capacity. The supply - demand relationship has weakened marginally, the over - capacity situation has not been effectively alleviated, and market freight rates are still under pressure [12]. - **Port Situation**: The operating conditions of major ports in China have shown signs of improvement compared with last month. Although the throughput of Shanghai Port has continued to decline slightly, the throughput of Ningbo Port has increased rapidly. The port congestion situation has not improved, and the global on - time performance rate has continued to decline [19]. Demand Side - **China's Foreign Trade**: As of July 2025, China's cumulative export volume reached 2.130363 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.10%, and the cumulative import volume reached 1.446849 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%. Among them, the cumulative export to the EU was 317.418 billion yuan, and the cumulative import from the EU was 149.191 billion yuan. The cumulative export to the US was 251.372 billion yuan, and the cumulative import from the US was 85.851 billion yuan. In July, among China's "new three" exports, except for the increase in the growth rate of electric vehicles compared with the same period in 2024, the others still decreased. Compared with the same period in 2024, China's exports to the EU have increased steadily, while imports have decreased year - on - year. China's trade with the US has been mainly affected by continuous US tariffs, and both imports and exports have continued to decline compared with the same period [29]. - **Foreign Trade in Europe and the US**: The preliminary value of the eurozone's manufacturing PMI in September was 49.5, falling below the boom - bust line again, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The preliminary value of the service PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding expectations of 50.5. The preliminary value of the eurozone's composite PMI in September was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in September was - 9.2, with an expected value of - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in September was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [31]. - The online quotes of ONE for the first ten - day period of October have been further adjusted downward to $1,235/FEU, and other shipping companies have also maintained a low level of $1,400/FEU. However, shipping companies have announced price increase plans for after mid - October, and it is currently announced that the price will rise to around $2,000/FEU. Whether the price increase can be implemented depends on the post - holiday loading situation. At the same time, the price increase situation will also affect the medium - to long - term freight rate level, and there is still uncertainty in the market [33]. Summary No relevant content provided other than the above - mentioned information in the summary section.

Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The container shipping index (European line) is in a volatile market, and attention should be paid to the emotional impact of price increase announcements. The probability of price increases materializing is uncertain, and it is necessary to focus on whether msk will open bookings this week and the potential for other shipping companies to adjust freight rates in late October after the holiday [9][11]. - The supply - side capacity shows different trends in different months. The demand - side lacks a solid foundation for price increases in the spot market, and there are significant differences in the loading performance among shipping companies [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures - EC2510 closed at 1,139.0, down 1.86% with a trading volume of 22,035 and an open interest of 32,431, a decrease of 3,095. The trading volume to open interest ratio was 0.68, compared to 1.09 the previous day [1]. - EC2512 closed at 1,777.0, up 1.74% with a trading volume of 19,314 and an open interest of 21,695, a decrease of 1,300. The trading volume to open interest ratio was 0.89, compared to 1.02 the previous day [1]. - EC2602 closed at 1,685.0, up 2.26% with a trading volume of 6,466 and an open interest of 8,768, an increase of 59. The trading volume to open interest ratio was 0.74, compared to 0.63 the previous day [1]. Freight Rates - The SCFIS European route index was 1,254.92 points, down 12.9% week - on - week; the SCFIS US West route index was 1,193.64 points, down 11.6% week - on - week [1]. - The SCFI European route was $971/TEU, down 7.7% bi - weekly; the SCFI US West route was $1,460/FEU, down 10.8% bi - weekly [1]. Spot Freight - The 40 - 41 week list price center dropped to the range of $1380 - 1420/FEU, and the corresponding SCFIS index was about 960 - 1000 points (±30 points). Some shipping companies have announced price increases in late October, with Maersk offering the lowest price of $1800/FEU and COSCO the highest of $3000/FEU [9]. Exchange Rates - The US dollar index was 98.20, and the US dollar to offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.11 [1]. 2. Capacity - In September, the number of blank sailings decreased by 1 to 6, and the weekly average capacity remained at 29.6 million TEU/week. In October, the weekly average capacity was slightly revised down to 26.5 million TEU/week. In November, the weekly average capacity was 30.8 million TEU/week, with the number of blank sailings remaining at 5 and the number of pending sailings increasing by 1. The November weekly average capacity was +9.4% year - on - year and +16.1% month - on - month [11]. 3. Macro News - On September 29, US President Trump was optimistic about reaching a Gaza cease - fire agreement and would meet with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on Monday to finalize the agreement framework [8]. - Starting from October 1, 2025, Trump will impose a 50% tariff on all kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities and related products, and a 30% tariff on upholstered furniture [8]. 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European line) is 0, indicating a neutral trend [13].

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS has fallen below 1500 points for nine consecutive weeks, and online quotes in the second half of September have been further reduced. The price shows a smooth downward trend in the off - season with an enlarged decline. There may be low - buying opportunities in December, and the October contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The SCFIS has dropped below 1500 points for nine consecutive weeks, and online quotes in the second half of September have been further cut. For example, Maersk's quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in the third and fourth weeks of September decreased by about $400 compared to the first half of the month, and OOCL's quotes dropped by about $200. The overall shipping capacity has increased while the scale of blank sailings is not significantly higher than last year. There may be low - buying opportunities in December, and the October contract is advised to be short - allocated on rallies [8] 2. Industry News - From September 8th to 12th, the China Export Container Shipping Market was basically stable, but most route freight rates declined, dragging down the comprehensive index. In August, China's exports increased by 4.4% year - on - year. The Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index on September 12th was 1398.11 points, down 3.2% from the previous period. For the European route, China's exports to Europe increased by 10.4% year - on - year in August, and the freight rate on September 12th was $1154/TEU, down 12.2% from the previous period. The Mediterranean route showed a similar downward trend. For the North American route, the US employment market slowed down significantly in August, and China's exports to the US decreased by more than 30% year - on - year in August, but the freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East increased by 8.3% and 7.6% respectively. The Middle East situation has become tense again, with intensified conflicts between Israel and relevant parties [9][10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - From September 8th to 15th, the SCFIS for the European route decreased from 1566.46 to 1440.24, a decrease of 8.1%, while the SCFIS for the US West route increased from 980.48 to 1349.84, an increase of 37.7% [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - Transaction data for September 16th shows that for the EC2510 contract, the closing price was 1169.7, down 0.10% from the previous settlement price; for the EC2512 contract, the closing price was 1673.8, up 2.04%; for the EC2602 contract, the closing price was 1572.1, up 3.36%; for the EC2604 contract, the closing price was 1283.7, up 2.69%; for the EC2606 contract, the closing price was 1471.6, up 3.25%; for the EC2608 contract, the closing price was 1625.9, up 1.84% [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The content provides charts on container ship capacity in Europe, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates, but specific data is not further described in the text [17][19]