1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of the container shipping index (European Line) is 0, indicating a neutral stance [17]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The intraday fluctuations of the EC market are significantly influenced by geopolitical sentiments. In terms of fundamentals, the short - term valuation center of the 2604 contract depends on the quotes of other shipping companies in early April. In a neutral scenario, the market freight rate center in early April will rise to the range of $2700 - 2800/FEU, equivalent to an SCFIS index of approximately 1950 - 2050 points; in a pessimistic scenario, the rate hike fails, and the freight rate center drops back to $2500 - 2600/FEU in the second half of March, equivalent to an SCFIS index of about 1800 - 1900 points. The 2604 contract has long - allocation value around 1800 points and below, and short - term long - buying opportunities should be noted. For far - month contracts, a certain premium or discount is given according to seasonality, and overall, one should mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [13][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The EC2604 contract closed at 1957.4 points, with a daily increase of 3.00%; the EC2606 contract closed at 2692.9 points, with a daily increase of 14.40%; the EC2608 contract closed at 2564.0 points, with a daily increase of 9.74%; the EC2610 contract closed at 1648.0 points, with a daily increase of 6.72% [1]. - **Freight Index**: On March 23, 2026, the SCFIS European route index was 1693.26 points, with a weekly increase of 8.8%; the SCFIS US - West route index was 1024.11 points, with a weekly decrease of 7.7%. The SCFI European route index had a bi - weekly increase of 1.1%, and the SCFI US - West route index had a bi - weekly decrease of 8.7% [1]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: For European - bound shipments from Shanghai, different carriers' $/40'GP rates range from 2035 to 3360, and $/20'GP rates range from 1285 to 2230 [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 99.12, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.91 [1]. 3.2 Supply Side - In the past week, the average weekly capacity in April was revised down from 32.5 to 31.1 million TEU/week, with the capacity reduction mainly from the OA Alliance. The capacity in April decreased by 0.9% year - on - year and increased by 5.8% month - on - month. The capacity in May was revised down from 33.5 to 33.1 million TEU/week, and there were 4 pending voyages not included in the statistics. The capacity in May increased by 10.4% year - on - year and 7.8% month - on - month, and the static effective capacity in May is currently at a historical high [13]. 3.3 Demand Side - In the fourth week of March, the overall booking progress in the market was better than that in the third week. Maersk raised the price by $400 to $2700/FEU in the first week of April, and as of Thursday this week, the booking progress was average. The PA Alliance showed signs of improved loading at the end of the month. The market as a whole showed the characteristics of deteriorated loading for high - price ships and improved loading for low - price ships, while the OA Alliance continued to perform steadily. In the medium - to - long - term, if oil prices soar and remain high, potential downside risks may stem from macro - level negative feedback, which could then be transmitted to international trade [14]. 3.4 Freight Rates - **Maersk**: The opening rate in the 13th week was 2200/230 (40GP/40HQ). It was raised by $400 to 2600/2700 (40GP/40HQ) in the 14th week. As of Thursday this week, the SPOT booking volume was only 1100FFE, far from the target of 3900FFE [14]. - **OA Alliance**: The central rate in the 12th and 13th weeks was around $2900/FEU. Among them, Evergreen, COSCO, and OOCL were in the range of $2700 - 2800/FEU, and CMA's offline rate was 3168 and online rate was 3293 dollars/FEU [14]. - **PA Alliance**: In the 12th week, the FAK was reported at $2400/FEU, and the actual offline transactions were mostly at $2200/FEU per ship. In the 13th week, YML and HMM's offline rates remained at $2200/FEU, ONE's FAK was reported at $2520/FEU, and different SPOT rates could be applied for different container volumes [15]. - **MSC**: From April 1st to April 5th, the rate basically remained at $2840/FEU [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the escalating situation in the Middle East on the oil shipping market, addressing current shipping conditions, alternative routes, and potential long-term effects on supply and demand. Group 1: Current Shipping Conditions - As of February 28, the shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased by approximately 95% compared to pre-conflict levels, with no significant recovery trend observed in daily data [1]. Group 2: Alternative Routes - The Saudi Arabia East-West pipeline connecting the Abqaiq oil field to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea has the theoretical loading capacity of 5 million barrels per day, although it has not reached this level historically. As of March 12, the loading volume had increased to 2.9 million barrels per day from 1.9 million barrels per day, indicating potential for further increases [1]. - Currently, 27 VLCCs are heading to Yanbu port, and due to risks from Houthi forces in the Red Sea, freight rates on this route are expected to remain high, with VLCC rates reported at $174,000 per day on March 13 [1]. Group 3: Impact of Continued Middle East Cargo Loss - If the current situation persists for 15-20 days, vessels originally bound for the Middle East may reroute to West Africa and the Gulf of Mexico, putting upward pressure on freight rates for these routes. The IEA's release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves may help mitigate the impact of reduced Middle Eastern cargo, but the release rate is slow, and its effectiveness remains to be seen [2]. Group 4: Long-term Implications - In the long term, there may be significant depletion of global commercial and strategic inventories, leading countries to build and replenish stocks for energy security. This could create a sustained increase in transportation demand over the years, contrasting with the low oil shipping market seen during the 2020-2021 period following the oil price war [2]. Group 5: Impact on Container Shipping - The article compares the current situation with the Red Sea crisis of 2024, noting that the Red Sea was a key route for Far East-Europe and some Far East-East Coast US shipping. The rerouting has increased capacity on European routes by 39%, raising its global share to 24% [1]. - The Strait of Hormuz primarily serves the needs of Gulf countries, accounting for only 3% of global trade demand. However, the complexity of shipping networks may lead to chain reactions affecting efficiency and capacity [1]. - Potential congestion at international transshipment ports, such as Singapore and Port Klang, may arise as cargo originally destined for the Middle East is redirected [1]. - The land transportation system may also be affected by fuel supply issues if Middle Eastern oil trade continues to be disrupted, potentially leading to increased prices for gasoline and diesel in import-dependent countries [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trading volume of the container shipping index (European line) was significantly affected by geopolitical news, showing a pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term contracts. The 2604 - 2608 contracts closed up 14.6% - 20%, and the 2609 and far - term contracts closed up 10% - 12%. The impact of geopolitical events on the spot market of container shipping European lines can be divided into the emotional and supply - demand aspects. The overall strategy is to remain on the sidelines [10][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For EC2604, the closing price was 1,892.2, with a daily decline of 4.43%, trading volume of 85,170, open interest of 33,995, a change of - 2,684 in open interest, and a trading - to - open - interest ratio of 2.51 (compared to 4.19 the previous day). For EC2606, the closing price was 2,161.4, with a daily increase of 10.40%, trading volume of 17,081, open interest of 20,319, a change of 149 in open interest, and a trading - to - open - interest ratio of 0.84 (compared to 1.51 the previous day). Similar data is provided for EC2608 and EC2610 [1]. - **Freight Index**: The SCFIS for the European route was 1,463.40 points, with a weekly decline of 7.0%; for the US - West route, it was 1,045.08 points, with a weekly decline of 6.0%. The SCFI for the European route was $1,452/TEU, with a bi - weekly increase of 2.3%; for the US - West route, it was $1,940/FEU, with a bi - weekly increase of 4.5% [1]. - **Forward Freight Rates**: Different carriers such as Maersk, MSC, etc., offered different prices for shipping from Shanghai to Rotterdam. For example, Maersk's price for a 40'GP was $2,430 and for a 20'GP was $1,445 [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 98.95, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.91 [1]. 3.2 Shipping Capacity - **Scheduled Voyages and Adjustments**: In March, there were 11 blank sailings and 2 additional voyages; in April, there was 1 blank sailing, 3 undetermined voyages, and CMA added an OCR route. The weekly shipping capacity (in 10,000 TEU) from March 7 - April 26 showed fluctuations, and the monthly average weekly shipping capacity was also presented for different alliances [5]. - **Supply - Side Adjustments**: In the second half of March, COSCO transferred two ships from the Middle - East route to the Northwest - Europe AEU7 route. After the adjustment, the average weekly shipping capacity in the second half of March increased from 327,000 TEU to 338,000 TEU, a 31% increase compared to the first half of the month. The static shipping capacity in April was 322,000 TEU/week, with year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of 3%/10% [11]. 3.3 Macroeconomic News - Geopolitical events included discussions on cease - fire conditions by the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister, statements by US President Trump on the Iran issue, an explosion at a US military base in Bahrain, and military actions by the Israeli Defense Forces against Tehran [8][9][14]. 3.4 Market Analysis - **Demand Side**: Cargo volume is gradually recovering with resumption of work and production. There is no sign of large - scale missed bookings in the market. In the medium - to - long - term, if oil prices rise and remain high, potential downward risks may come from macro - negative feedback [10]. - **Supply Side**: The transfer of ships from the Middle - East route to the European line increased shipping capacity. If the risk of ship attacks in the Hormuz/Mandeb Strait remains high, it may lead to a global shortage of effective shipping capacity and potential congestion at Southeast Asian hub ports [11]. - **Freight Rates**: In the third week of March, some shipping companies raised freight rates, and the loading rate support was not strong. In April, shipping companies usually try to raise rates. If the war continues and the passage risk in the Hormuz/Mandeb Strait does not decrease, the probability of a successful rate increase may increase. Oil price increases also prompt shipping companies to levy emergency fuel surcharges [12]. 3.5 Investment Strategy - Short - term trading volume is greatly affected by geopolitical emotions. Pay attention to the progress of resumption of work and production, Maersk's cabin opening in the fourth week of March, and other shipping companies' follow - up on fuel surcharges. Be vigilant about the recurrence of geopolitical emotions. Overall, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, all contracts of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) hit the daily limit for the second day. During the period of price increase implementation vacuum, risk - aversion sentiment led to a short - selling stampede [12]. - The impact of geopolitical events on the container shipping European line spot market can be divided into the emotional and supply - demand aspects. The emotional aspect sees a high enthusiasm among liner companies for price increases in most routes in the short term. The supply - demand impact is mainly on the capacity side, with a long transmission path. The intensity of this geopolitical event is higher than last year, and the duration of the conflict and the capacity adjustment behavior of liner companies need to be observed [12]. - In terms of the European line's own supply - demand situation, the demand side is in the regular off - season after the Spring Festival in March and April. The supply side shows that the European line schedules in March and April have not been affected by the geopolitical situation for the time being, with an obvious increase in capacity in the second half of March and a continuous increase in April. The freight rate side shows that the mainstream shipping companies' European line freight rates fluctuated in the second week of March, and the market is currently in a game over the actual implementation of the price increase in late March [12][13]. - Overall, the price increase and geopolitical sentiment have been partially priced in. The near - month 04 contract has been valued to the freight rate center of the second week of March. All current contracts are valued higher than the same period in 2025, having priced in some geopolitical premiums. There are still many uncertainties in the geopolitical situation. In the short term, the upward risk lies in the commodity geopolitical risk - aversion sentiment and the game of EC funds during the freight rate vacuum period in late March. The strategy is to reduce long - short spreads positions opportunistically. The market volatility remains high, and investors are advised to participate with caution [15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Data - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1,644.8, with a daily increase of 18.00%, yesterday's trading volume was 17,836, and yesterday's open interest was 44,074, with a decrease of 2,169. The ratio of yesterday's trading volume to open interest was 0.40, compared with 1.76 the day before [1]. - EC2606 B: Yesterday's closing price was 2,181.7, with a daily increase of 18.00%, yesterday's trading volume was 3,269, and yesterday's open interest was 20,446, with a decrease of 321. The ratio of yesterday's trading volume to open interest was 0.16, compared with 0.78 the day before [1]. - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1,469.8, with a daily increase of 15.00%, yesterday's trading volume was 7,755, and yesterday's open interest was 12,564, with a decrease of 1,147. The ratio of yesterday's trading volume to open interest was 0.62, compared with 1.04 the day before [1]. Freight Rate Index Data - SCFIS: The European route index was 1,463.40, with a weekly decline of 7.0%; the US - West route index was 1,045.08, with a weekly decline of 6.0% [1]. - SCFI: The European route index was 1,420 $/TEU, with a bi - weekly increase of 4.3%; the US - West route index was 1,857 $/FEU, with a bi - weekly increase of 3.9% [1]. Carrier Freight Data - Multiple carriers' freight rates for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route are provided, such as Maersk with a 38 - day voyage, $1,870 for 40' GP and $1,175 for 20' GP; MSC with a 42 - day voyage, $2,640 for 40' GP and $1,580 for 20' GP, etc. [1] European Line Capacity Data - In March, the weekly average capacity was 288,000 TEU/week, with 258,000 TEU/week in the first half and 318,000 TEU/week in the second half, a monthly year - on - year growth rate of 6.9%. In April, the weekly average capacity was 326,000 TEU/week, with a monthly year - on - year growth rate of 4.1% [13]. Market Freight Rate Situation - In the second week of March, the mainstream shipping companies' European line freight rates fluctuated. MSC increased the price by $500 to $2,640/FEU; YML's FP2 and FE4 routes decreased the price by $200 to $1,800/FEU; COSCO slightly increased the price by $100 to $2,500/FEU, and the OA alliance's central price was $2,400/FEU; Maersk decreased the price by $100/FEU to $1,900/FEU. The latest weekly central price was about $2,280/FEU, a week - on - week increase of about $210/FEU, equivalent to about 1,650 points on the SCFIS index [13]. Policy Adjustment - Starting from the night trading session on March 4, 2026, the trading limits for non - futures company members, overseas special non - broker participants, and customers in the listed futures contracts of crude oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and the Container Shipping Index (European Line) have been adjusted. The maximum number of intraday opening positions for crude oil futures is 1,200 lots, for low - sulfur fuel oil futures is 6,000 lots, and for the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures is 50 lots. Hedging and market - making transactions are not subject to these limits [14].

Report Information - Report Type: Daily Report on Container Shipping Index [1] - Date: March 4, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The escalation of the Middle East situation has boosted market sentiment, and airlines have postponed their resumption of Red Sea routes, leading to most container shipping index futures hitting the daily limit. Despite the current off - season in transportation after the Spring Festival, limited export demand, and high运力 supply in March and April, the slowdown of the Red Sea resumption plan can relieve the运力 pressure. Although the actual impact of geopolitical conflicts on container shipping supply and demand is limited, it has a greater impact on long - term sentiment and the futures market, potentially causing the index to strengthen periodically. It is advisable to pay attention to the convergence of spot and futures prices in the second half of March near the delivery date and look for opportunities to short - allocate off - season contracts such as 04 and 06 [8]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: The escalation of the Middle East situation has strengthened market sentiment, and airlines have postponed Red Sea resumption, resulting in most container shipping index futures hitting the daily limit. The post - Spring Festival period is still an off - season for transportation. Short - term tariff issues are unlikely to trigger exporters to rush shipments, and the demand for photovoltaic exports is limited. The运力 supply in March and April remains at a high level in the same period of history. However, the slowdown of the Red Sea resumption plan can continue to digest the运力 pressure. [8] - **Spot Price**: Leading airlines such as MSC, CMA, and HPL announced in early February that they would raise the freight rate in March to over $3000 per large container. However, the current price in early March still mainly follows the late - February price of $2000 - $2300 per large container. The off - season price increase may be more for price stabilization and difficult to implement. [8] - **Operation Suggestion**: Geopolitical conflicts have a limited actual impact on container shipping supply and demand but a greater impact on long - term sentiment and the futures market, potentially causing the index to strengthen periodically. Pay attention to the convergence of spot and futures prices in the second half of March near the delivery date and look for opportunities to short - allocate off - season contracts such as 04 and 06. [8] 2. Industry News - **Overall Market**: After the traditional "Spring Festival" holiday, the Chinese export container shipping market was generally stable. The freight rates in the ocean - going routes showed an upward trend, driving up the composite index. On February 27, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1333.11 points, up 6.5% from the previous period. [9] - **European Routes**: The eurozone's February composite PMI rose to 51.9, with the manufacturing PMI jumping from 49.5 to 50.8, reaching a 44 - month high and crossing the boom - bust line for the first time since August last year, indicating a good economic recovery momentum and an accelerated manufacturing expansion. The transportation demand remained stable compared to before the holiday, with a solid supply - demand fundamental, and the spot market booking price increased. On February 27, the market freight rate (including shipping and shipping surcharges) from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $1420 per TEU, up 4.3% from the previous period. [9] - **Mediterranean Routes**: The market situation was in sync with the European routes, and the market freight rate increased. On February 27, the market freight rate (including shipping and shipping surcharges) from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $2305 per TEU, up 5.9% from the previous period. [9] - **North American Routes**: The US February composite PMI preliminary value dropped to 52.3, with both the manufacturing and service PMI preliminary values slightly declining. Although still in the expansion range, the expansion speed showed signs of slowing down. The US Supreme Court ruled that the large - scale tariff measures implemented by the Trump administration were unconstitutional, leading to great uncertainty in global trade. The transportation market was relatively stable, and the spot market booking price continued to rise. On February 27, the market freight rates (including shipping and shipping surcharges) from Shanghai Port to the basic ports in the US West and East were $1857 per FEU and $2691 per FEU respectively, up 3.9% and 6.6% from the previous period. [10] - **Persian Gulf Routes**: The recent geopolitical tension in the region has continued to escalate, and the traditional "Ramadan" is approaching, driving up the spot market freight rate significantly this week. On February 27, the market freight rate (including shipping and shipping surcharges) from Shanghai Port to Persian Gulf basic ports was $1327 per TEU, up 35.4% from the previous period. [10] - **Geopolitical Events**: Trump stated that a nuclear - armed Iran is unacceptable to the US, and the US will continue large - scale military operations in Iran, which may last for 4 - 5 weeks, but they are prepared for a longer - term operation. He also said that if the next Iranian leader is pragmatic, he may lift the sanctions on Iran. Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani said that Iran will not negotiate with the US. The advisor to the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, and Iran will attack all ships trying to pass through the Strait. Goldman Sachs estimated that the European natural gas price may rise by 130%, and the oil price may increase by $18 per barrel, equivalent to a 6 - week blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. A JPMorgan analyst said that if the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed due to the Middle East conflict, Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries may only be able to continue production for "at most 25 days". [10] - **Tariff Issues**: The US Supreme Court ruled that the US government's additional tariffs on relevant trading partners under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are illegal. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce is comprehensively evaluating the relevant content and impact and urges the US to cancel the additional unilateral tariff measures on trading partners. The US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) announced that it will stop collecting tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) from February 24, US Eastern Time. The Chairman of the European Parliament's International Trade Committee, Bernd Lange, said that the European Parliament's negotiation team decided to suspend the approval work of the EU - US trade agreement and postpone the vote on the agreement originally scheduled for February 24. Trump warned that any country trying to "play tricks" using the Supreme Court's ruling will face higher tariffs and more serious consequences. [10] 3. Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index for the European route (basic ports) on March 2, 2026, was 1463.4, down 110.11 (-7.0%) from February 23. The index for the US West route (basic ports) was 1045.08, down 66.93 (-6.0%) from February 23. [12] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market**: The report provides trading data for multiple container shipping European line futures contracts on March 3, including the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, percentage change, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest. [6] - **Shipping - Related Data Charts**: The report includes charts of European container ship运力, global container ship orders on hand, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates. [17][19]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: February 27, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - From the supply - demand fundamentals, after the Spring Festival, it is still the off - season for transportation. After the IEEPA tariff was ruled invalid, Trump announced a 10% tariff and an increase to 15% for 150 days. But according to the Kuala Lumpur Consensus, the current US tariffs on China are 10% general reciprocal tariffs and 10% fentanyl tariffs. Even if the tariff is increased to 15%, China's tariffs will still decrease. So, it's hard to trigger export rush in the short term. The demand for photovoltaic export rush is limited, and the shipping capacity supply in March is at a high level in the same period of history. The resumption of navigation in the Red Sea will further increase the shipping capacity supply pressure. Although leading shipping companies announced a price increase in March, the current price in early March still follows the end - February price. The off - season price increase may be more for price stabilization rather than actual implementation. Short - term geopolitical conflicts, low index, and European port congestion may lead to a phased strengthening of the index, providing short - selling opportunities for off - season contracts such as 04 and 06 [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Daily Market**: After the Spring Festival, it is the transportation off - season. Trump's new tariff policy may not trigger export rush. Photovoltaic export demand is limited, and March shipping capacity supply is high. Red Sea resumption will increase supply pressure. Leading shipping companies' price increase may not be implemented. Short - term factors may lead to index strengthening, providing short - selling opportunities for 04 and 06 contracts [7] Group 5: Industry News - The US Supreme Court ruled that the US government's tariffs under the IEEPA are illegal. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce is evaluating the impact and urges the US to cancel the tariffs. The US CBP will stop collecting IEEPA - based tariffs. The European Parliament suspended the approval of the EU - US trade agreement. Trump warned countries using the ruling to face higher tariffs. Trump denied reports of war with Iran. Israel's plan to strengthen control in the West Bank was condemned by many countries. The Gemini Alliance restored the ME11/IMX route through the Red Sea - Suez Canal. Maersk reported port and shipping disruptions due to bad weather [8][9] Group 6: Data Overview 1. Spot Freight Rates for Container Shipping - SCFIS for European routes (basic ports) decreased from 1607.27 on February 16 to 1573.51 on February 23, a decrease of 33.76 (-2.1%). SCFIS for US - West routes (basic ports) decreased from 1131.74 on February 16 to 1112.01 on February 23, a decrease of 19.73 (-1.7%) [11] 2. Futures Market of Container Shipping Index (European Routes) - Information on the trading data of container shipping European routes futures contracts on February 26, including contract names, pre - settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, open interests, and changes in open interests [6] 3. Shipping - Related Data Charts - Charts include European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [16][18]

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: February 26, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - Currently, sentiment is strong, the index is still at a low level, and European ports are congested. In the short term, it may continue to show a relatively strong performance. Wait for short - selling opportunities for the off - season contracts of 04 and 06 [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - From the supply - demand fundamentals, after the Spring Festival, it is still the transportation off - season. Trump announced a 10% tariff and a further increase to 15% under Trade Law 122, but China's tariffs may still decline. The demand for photovoltaic rush exports is limited, and the shipping capacity supply in March is at a historically high level. The resumption of navigation in the Red Sea will increase the supply pressure. Although some leading shipping companies announced a price increase in March, the current price in early March still mainly follows the end - February price. The current off - season price increase may be more for price stability and difficult to be implemented [7] 2. Industry News - The US Supreme Court ruled that the US government's tariffs under the IEEPA were illegal. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce is evaluating the impact and urges the US to cancel the tariffs. The US CBP will stop collecting IEEPA - based tariffs. The European Parliament postponed the vote on the EU - US trade agreement. Trump warned countries using the ruling to face higher tariffs. He also denied reports of a possible war with Iran. Israel's plan to strengthen control in the West Bank was condemned. The Gemini Alliance announced the resumption of the ME11/IMX route through the Red Sea - Suez Canal. Adverse weather has affected European ports and inland transportation [8][9] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - From February 16 to February 23, 2026, the SCFIS for the European route decreased from 1607.27 to 1573.51, a decrease of 2.1%; the SCFIS for the US West route decreased from 1131.74 to 1112.01, a decrease of 1.7% [11] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - Provided the trading data of EC2604, EC2605, etc. contracts on February 25, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, etc. [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - Included charts of European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates, etc. [16][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is "oscillating" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The European container shipping market shows a trend of "simultaneous strengthening of spot and futures prices". The freight rate has rebounded for multiple consecutive weeks, with both spot and futures prices rising steadily. Shipping companies are strongly willing to control cabin space and support prices. The demand side benefits from pre - Spring Festival stocking and restocking needs, leading to an improvement in cabin loading rates. On the supply side, empty sailings have decreased, and effective capacity has tightened. The Red Sea situation has marginally eased, with some shipping companies testing re - entry into the market, but overall caution remains. In the short term, the freight rate may peak in early January, and the market faces adjustment pressure. Future attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and the progress of re - entry into the market [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Spot Freight Rate**: It is a positive factor. In the Gemini Alliance, MSK's freight rate in the second week of January rose to $2540/FEU, a $40 increase compared to the opening, with the overall offline loading rate rising; HPL - SPOT's price in the first half of January dropped from $3535/FEU by $500 to $3035/FEU, and there is an expectation of a price increase back to $3535/FEU in the second half of January. In the OCEAN Alliance, OOCL's freight rate in the first half of January remained flat compared to the previous period, at $3180 - 3230/FEU, and CMA's freight rate rose slightly from $3245/FEU to $3293/FEU. In the MSC&PA Alliance, ONE has an online price increase expectation of $2835/FEU in the second half of January, consistent with the announced increase in the first half. The offline FAK quote in the first half of January was $2800/FEU, a $400 increase compared to the end of December, and YML's offline quote is $2800/FEU, with special prices available for increased volume [3] - **Political and Economic Factors**: They are neutral. Houthi armed leaders warned of an "inevitable" new round of conflict with Israel, and criticized Arab countries seeking normalization of relations with Israel. Ukrainian President Zelensky hopes to reach a framework agreement to end the war when meeting with US President Trump, and is willing to submit a cease - fire plan to a referendum if Russia agrees to at least 60 days of cease - fire. US President Trump plans to announce multiple major measures regarding the Gaza issue in early January, but the next step depends on his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu [3] - **Capacity Supply**: It is neutral. The average weekly capacity deployment in October was 245,000 TEU, 265,000 TEU in November, and 290,000 TEU in December [3] - **Demand**: It is a positive factor. At the end of 2025, the demand for European container shipping remained strong, showing a super - seasonal recovery. Driven by the extended pre - Spring Festival stocking window in 2026 and the release of European importers' restocking needs, the booking volume continued to grow, and the fleet loading rate remained high. Coupled with the pre - adjustment of the supply chain under geopolitical situations, the enthusiasm of shippers to ship goods increased, supporting the continuous rise of freight rates [3] - **Investment View**: It is "oscillating". The trading strategy is to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading. Attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and domestic and international macro - policy disturbances [3] 3.2 Price - **Spot Market**: The report presents the price trends of European line indices, US - West line indices, and US - East line indices from 2023 to 2025 through charts, but no specific data analysis is provided [6] 3.3 Static Capacity - **Order Volume**: The report shows the order volume and new - order volume of container ships of different loading capacities from 2015 to 2025 through multiple charts, including feeder container ships, intermediate container ships, and large - capacity container ships [11] - **Delivery Volume**: The delivery volume and delivery volume by loading capacity of container ships from 2020 to 2025 are presented, including different types of container ships such as feeder and post - Panamax [14] - **Demolition Volume**: The demolition volume and demolition volume by loading capacity of container ships from 2020 to 2025 are shown, covering various container ship types [15] - **Future Delivery**: The future delivery volume of container ships from 2023 to 2029 is presented, with breakdowns by different time periods and loading capacities [20] - **Ship - Breaking Price**: The ship - breaking prices of container ships of different loading capacities from 2019 to 2025 are presented, along with the new - building price index and year - on - year change of container ships [27] - **Second - Hand Ship Price**: The second - hand ship price index and the second - hand ship prices of container ships of different loading capacities and ages from 2015 to 2025 are presented [33] - **Existing Capacity of Container Ships**: The existing capacity, capacity by loading capacity, proportion of idle and retrofitted ships, average age, and average age at ship - breaking of container ships are presented through multiple charts, showing the development and status of the container ship fleet from 2015 to 2025 [42] 3.4 Dynamic Capacity - **Ship Schedule (Shanghai - European Base Ports)**: The total capacity deployment, PA + MSC capacity deployment, GEMINI capacity deployment, OCEAN capacity deployment, and MSC capacity deployment from week 13 to week 28 are presented through charts [57] - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: The situation of container ships with installed and being - installed desulfurization towers, including the capacity in thousands of TEU, the number of ships, and the proportion, is presented, along with the average age and duration of the retrofit and the average speed of container ships [67] - **Idle Capacity**: The idle capacity, idle capacity by loading capacity, proportion of idle capacity, and the situation of hot - idle and desulfurization - tower - retrofitted container ships are presented through multiple charts [75]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The near - term outlook for the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) is one of oscillation, while the long - term view depends on the progress of the Gaza negotiations [1][4] - For the 2604 contract, short - selling on rallies has a relatively higher probability of success, and its bottom valuation can be anchored to the lowest point of the 2025 SCFIS index, 1031 points. For the 2610 contract, pay attention to the progress of the second - stage cease - fire negotiations in Gaza and consider short - selling on rallies in the medium to long term [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overview - In the past week, the absolute value of January's shipping capacity changed little, about 313,000 TEU/week, with no more pending voyages. The PA Alliance's FE4 route in the 5th week of January was confirmed as a normal dispatch, while the FE3 route in the 4th week changed from a normal dispatch to a blank sailing. Overall, January's shipping schedule became more even, with capacity between 308,000 - 318,000 TEU from the 1st to the 4th week and slightly increasing to 328,000 TEU in the 5th week [4][49] - February currently has 7 blank sailings and 5 pending voyages, with an average weekly capacity of 278,000 TEU/week (excluding the capacity of the 5 pending voyages). As of now, the first half of January (weeks 6 and 7) operates at full capacity, increasing the pressure on shipping companies to build a rolling pool before the Spring Festival, and blank sailings are mainly concentrated in the second half of January [5][49] Price - The forecast for the 52 - week SCFIS index has been revised down to between 1670 - 1730 points, and the final delivery settlement price of the 2512 contract is expected to be around 1590 - 1610 points. For the 2602 contract, key issues include freight height, inflection point time, and decline rate. The 2602 contract's delivery settlement price is the average of the SCFIS indices of the 4th, 5th, and 6th Wednesdays [6] - For the 2nd - week FAK average forecast, if OA is 2800 and PA is 2600 dollars, the FAK average is about 2700 dollars/FEU; if OA is 3100 and PA is 2800 dollars, the FAK average is about 2820 dollars/FEU. The inflection point is likely to occur in the 3rd or 4th week, and the accelerated decline may start in the 5th week [7] Demand Side - From a Chinese export perspective (valued in amount, updated to November), in November, China's exports to the US declined from - 25.2% in October to - 28.6%, increasing the drag on overall exports; exports to the EU increased by 13.9 percentage points to 14.8% compared to October; exports to ASEAN decreased from 11.0% to 8.2% but remained resilient overall; exports to Africa further increased to 27.6% [27] - From an Asian export to Europe perspective (updated to October), the year - on - year growth rate of container trade volume between Asia and Europe (Northwest Europe + Mediterranean) in October was - 2.8% [30] - From an Asian export to North America perspective (updated to October), in October, the year - on - year growth rate of Asian exports to North America was - 8.0% [33] Supply Side Geopolitical Situation - Israel's Prime Minister plans to meet with the US President in Washington on December 29, 2025, to discuss issues such as Iran's nuclear activities, the overall security situation in the Middle East, and the next phase of the Gaza plan. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are coordinating on the role of the Southern Transitional Council (STC) in Yemen, and Saudi Arabia carried out an air strike on STC positions on December 26, 2025 [46] - The Maersk Sebarok, a 6,500 - TEU container ship, passed through the Bab el - Mandeb Strait and entered the Red Sea on the morning of December 19, the first Maersk vessel to do so in nearly two years [5][46] Shipping Schedule - January's shipping capacity changed little, with the 1st - 4th week's capacity between 308,000 - 318,000 TEU and the 5th week's slightly increasing to 328,000 TEU. February has 7 blank sailings and 5 pending voyages, with an average weekly capacity of 278,000 TEU/week (excluding pending voyages) [4][49] Turnover Efficiency - Data on the sailing speed of 12,000 - TEU container ships, the number of idle 8,000 - 12,000 - TEU and 17,000 + TEU container ships are presented, as well as the congestion situation of container ships in ports across different regions such as China, the UK/Europe, the Mediterranean/Black Sea, Southeast Asia, North America, and major ports in Europe, North America, and Asia [56][59][61] Static Capacity - In December, the top ten liner companies received 2 new 12,000 - 16,999 - TEU container ships and 1 new 17,000 + TEU container ship. From January to March 2026, they are expected to receive multiple new ships of different sizes [72][73][75]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the 2602 contract, consider lightly building long positions around 1700 points or lower for delivery; for the 2604 contract, maintain rolling short - selling. The 2602 contract has three scenarios: neutral, optimistic, and pessimistic, and the price trend in week 3 is uncertain. The 2604 contract has a relatively higher probability of short - selling, and in the short - term, beware of the risk of premium water [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - This week's view on the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is to lightly build long positions in the 02 contract for delivery and pay attention to the premium water risk in the 04 contract. In the past week, the weekly average capacity in January remained at 318,000 TEU/week, and the number of pending voyages was reduced to 1. There were changes in different alliances' ship schedules. In February, there are currently 4 blank sailings and 8 pending voyages, with a weekly average capacity of 275,000 TEU/week, and there is still a large room for revision [4][5] 3.2 Demand - From the perspective of China's exports (valued in amount, updated to November), in November, China's year - on - year exports to the US declined from - 25.2% in October to - 28.6%, while the year - on - year growth rate of exports to the EU increased by 13.9 percentage points to 14.8%. Exports to ASEAN decreased from 11.0% to 8.2% but still showed resilience, and exports to Africa further increased to 27.6%. In terms of Asian exports to Europe (updated to October) and North America (updated to October), there were different trends in container trade volumes in different months. The US import volume tracking (updated to December 11) also showed certain trends [33][36][39] 3.3 Supply 3.3.1 Supply Chain Risk Events - Geopolitical situation disturbances include the limited progress of the second - stage cease - fire talks in Gaza, the increased risk of internal conflict in Yemen, and the symbolic passage of Maersk's Sebarok through the Bab el - Mandeb Strait, which does not mean the full normalization of the Red Sea route [52] 3.3.2 European Line Ship Schedule - In the past week, the weekly average capacity in January remained at 318,000 TEU/week, and there were changes in different alliances' ship schedules. In February, there are currently 4 blank sailings and 8 pending voyages, with a weekly average capacity of 275,000 TEU/week, and there is still a large room for revision [54] 3.3.3 Turnover Efficiency - It includes aspects such as the sailing speed of container ships, the number of idle container ships, regional congestion situations (including ports in China, the UK/Europe, the Mediterranean/Black Sea, Southeast Asia, North America), and the congestion situations of major ports in Europe, North America, and Asia [63][67][69] 3.3.4 Static Capacity - In the past three months, there were new 12,000 + TEU container ships launched by the top ten liner companies, and there are also new ships to be delivered in the remaining months of 2025 and in 2026. The delivery plans of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 17,000 + TEU container ships from 2024 - 2026 are also summarized [80][83][85] 3.4 Price - For the 2512 contract, the delivery settlement price is the average of the SCFIS indices of weeks 50, 51, and 52. The SCFIS index of week 51 is expected to be between 1570 - 1630 points, and that of week 52 is expected to be between 1730 - 1780 points, with the delivery settlement price of the 2512 contract likely to be between 1600 - 1640 points. In January, based on the quotes of leading companies, the average FAK in the market in week 2 is expected to be around 2800 US dollars/FEU [16][17]