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高途(GOTU):集团(US):业绩全面超预期,盈利能力持续改善
HTSC· 2025-08-27 07:03
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][5]. Core Insights - The company reported Q2 2025 earnings with revenue of approximately 1.389 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 37.6%, significantly exceeding the guidance upper limit of 30.5% [1] - Adjusted operating loss was approximately 233 million RMB, better than the consensus estimate of 277 million RMB, while non-GAAP net loss was 207 million RMB, a year-on-year reduction of 50.5% [1] - The company is actively enhancing its core business growth while integrating AI technology to optimize service models, innovate products, and improve operational efficiency, with expectations of a significant reduction in annual losses [1] Revenue and Growth Expectations - The K12 business revenue grew approximately 50% year-on-year in Q2, with traditional learning services experiencing a healthy growth of 12.1% despite a reduction in class hours due to the earlier Spring Festival [2] - Non-academic training business has seen triple-digit growth for five consecutive quarters, becoming a new growth engine for the company [2] - Deferred revenue reached nearly 2.2 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 38.9%, laying a solid foundation for continued revenue growth in the second half of the year [2] - The company guides for Q3 total revenue growth of 28.9% to 30.6%, with an expected annual revenue growth close to 35%, better than the initial guidance of 30% [2] AI Strategy and Operational Efficiency - The company has proposed an "All with AI, Always AI" strategy for 2025, deeply integrating AI into all aspects of internal operations and customer experience, leading to efficiency improvements [3] - The sales, R&D, and management expense ratios improved year-on-year by 23.6, 5.4, and 2.6 percentage points respectively, with ROI increasing from 1.99 in Q2 2024 to 2.75 in Q2 2025 [3] - Despite expected slight increases in R&D expenses in the second half of the year due to ongoing investments in AI capabilities and talent density, these are anticipated to be offset by profits from core business [3] Financial Projections and Valuation - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised to 6.147 billion, 7.768 billion, and 9.215 billion RMB, reflecting a 7% upward adjustment for each year [4][10] - The target price is set at 5.24 USD, based on a 1.5x 2025E PS, up from a previous target of 4.84 USD [4][11] - The report anticipates a non-GAAP operating loss of approximately 350 million RMB for the year, significantly reduced year-on-year, with expectations of non-GAAP net profits turning positive in 2026 and 2027 [11][12]