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国信证券:K12教育具长坡厚雪特征 关注AI题材及高教估值修复主线
智通财经网· 2025-06-18 04:02
智通财经APP获悉,国信证券发布研报称,维持教育板块"优于大市"评级。1、K12教育行业仍具长坡厚 雪特征,高考备考人口红利显著,监管正走向常态化。传统教培龙头仍在修复进程中。2、职业技能及 录用考试培训以结果导向为主,弹性较大,随高中及以上学历劳动力数量逐步扩张,技能型人才愈发重 要,强技能培训重新得到定价。3、AI题材及高教估值修复主线,教育作为AI落地的重要场景,2025年 AI技术迭代进步有望持续带动提升的资金关注度。此外若高教板块在选营&并购落地等方面有进展,也 可关注选营推进后的板块估值弹性。 行情回顾:个股分化显著 2025.1.1-6.12,教育(申万)指数上涨5.04%,同期中证800下跌0.46%,跑赢大盘5.50pct。职业教育中国东 方教育领涨,就业环境变化,蓝领技能培训价值获重估。K12教培分化显著,战略调整及AI赋能下高 途、有道迎来盈利拐点;卓越教育集团强品牌力,大湾区人口红利&政策环境友好,公司高分红回馈股 东;学大高考前冲刺旺季,25Q1业绩增速环比显著修复;盛通积极布局AI机器人,均走出超额收益;新东 方及好未来K12业务稳固,但分别受留学业务、硬件销售拖累,期内股价承压。 ...
凯文教育:基本面持续向好,看好全年扭亏为盈-20250427
HTSC· 2025-04-27 10:15
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 5.38 [7][13]. Core Views - The company's fundamentals are improving, with expectations of turning profitable for the full year 2025, supported by steady growth in its core business and operational efficiency improvements [1][5]. - The K12 school operations are showing robust growth, while vocational education is expanding through partnerships with leading companies [2][5]. - The company has optimized its operational efficiency, leading to an upward trend in profit margins [3][5]. - The change in major shareholder to Haiguotou is expected to facilitate asset structure optimization and enhance decision-making processes [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 320 million, a year-on-year increase of 25.92%, and a net profit loss of RMB 37 million, reducing losses by 25.66% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 90.67 million, a year-on-year increase of 17.68%, and a net profit of RMB 468,400, marking a return to profitability [1]. Business Segments - Revenue from education services, training services, and housing leasing for 2024 was RMB 260 million, RMB 55 million, and RMB 5 million respectively, with year-on-year changes of +41.86%, -16.90%, and +10.13% [2]. - The K12 school segment is experiencing steady growth in student enrollment, while vocational education is expanding through collaborations with major companies [2]. Operational Efficiency - The company has effectively controlled sales, management, and financial expenses, with reductions of 18%, 4%, and 14% respectively [3]. - The gross profit margins for Q1 2024 to Q1 2025 showed an upward trend, indicating improved profitability [3]. Shareholder Changes - Haiguotou has become the largest shareholder after acquiring 14.84% of the shares, which is expected to streamline decision-making and support the company's long-term development [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 25.16 million, RMB 46.65 million, and RMB 56.32 million for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][6]. - The target price of RMB 5.38 is based on a DCF valuation, with an updated WACC of 9.36% and a perpetual growth rate of 2% [5][13].