机构：光大证券 研究员：陈彦彤/汪航宇/聂博雅 毛利率保持平稳，区域拓展及AI 投入致净利率下滑。公司2025H1 毛利率为45.0%，同比+0.1pcts，各业 务板块毛利率均有上升，但受综合素养业务中 "三人以下" 低毛利率业务收入占比大幅提升的结构影 响，整体毛利率仅小幅上升。 费用投放方面，25H1 销售费用率为6.8%，同比-0.3pcts，主要系续读率持续提升，业务增长更多依赖老 生续读，新招压力减小，费用投放效率提升；行政及其他费用率为12.5%，同比-0.4pcts，主要系公司提 升运营效率节省部分开支。综合来看，25H1 净利率为16.5%，同比-0.7pcts，主要系区域拓展、教研及 AI 投入增加。 大湾区市场持续深耕，分红比例逐年提升。展望未来，公司业绩有望持续释放。 1）区域深耕：公司将依托大湾区的人口红利与旺盛的教育需求，持续深耕广州市场并加快在深圳、佛 山等地的拓展步伐。广州作为公司的基地市场，其领先的市占率为公司构筑了坚实的品牌护城河；深 圳、佛山市场仍有较大提升空间。2）AI 深化：公司将继续深化AI 在教育场景的应用，计划推出"个性 化推题"功能和"AI 学伴"等产品，进一 ...

2025 年 8 月 23 日 公司研究 素质业务收入高增，AI 赋能成效显著 ——卓越教育集团（3978.HK）2025 年半年报点评 要点 事件：卓越教育集团 25H1 实现营业收入 9.2 亿元，同比+188.9%；归母净利润 1.5 亿元，同比+177.4%。 素质业务收入高速增长，AI 赋能成效显著。分业务看，25H1 素质教育/全日制 复习/辅导项目分别实现收入 7.23/1.01/0.89 亿元，分别同比+513.1%/-18.3%/ +17.6%。25H1 公司收入同比实现翻倍以上增长，主要系：1）综合素养业务产 品与服务质量不断提升，推动报读人次和续报率等运营指标持续上升。2）广州、 深圳、佛山市场拓展成效显著，依托本土化课程和品牌影响力扩大了市场份额， 共同拉动了整体收入增长。3）AI 技术在教学、营销等环节的应用优化了流程， 人才策略保障了师资供给，进一步支撑了业务扩张。 毛利率保持平稳，区域拓展及 AI 投入致净利率下滑。公司 2025H1 毛利率为 45.0%，同比+0.1pcts，各业务板块毛利率均有上升，但受综合素养业务中 "三 人以下" 低毛利率业务收入占比大幅提升的结构影响， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 6.03 [1][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of HKD 439 million for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, while the adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company was HKD 81 million, down 13.1% year-on-year. The revenue and profit accounted for approximately 38% and 33% of the previously forecasted annual figures, slightly below expectations due to internal adjustments and increased operational costs in new learning centers [1][9]. - The company plans to actively expand into new provincial markets over the next three years and will focus on new business opportunities in high school and full-time education, as well as enhancing its teaching and operational capabilities [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's quality education revenue reached HKD 388 million, up 5.8% year-on-year, driven mainly by an increase in student numbers [2]. - The tutoring course revenue saw a significant increase of 58.7% to HKD 52 million, with student numbers rising by 56.6% [2]. - The total number of learning centers reached 184, with 162 in Shenzhen and 22 in Guangzhou, reflecting an increase of 2 and 13 centers respectively since the end of 2024 [2]. Internal Adjustments - The company initiated internal adjustments in the first half of 2025 to align with its growth strategy for the next three years, including further refinement of business lines and team roles, promotion of young leaders, and optimization of teacher structure [3]. - The proportion of newly recruited teachers in Shenzhen with a bachelor's degree or higher reached 91%, with over 70% being recent graduates, which is expected to build a strong talent pool for future expansion [3]. Profitability and Valuation - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised down to HKD 207 million, HKD 276 million, and HKD 388 million, reflecting decreases of 15%, 16%, and 8% respectively [4][9]. - The target price of HKD 6.03 is based on a 15x PE ratio for 2025, considering the company's lower liquidity compared to comparable companies listed in the US and A-share markets [4][9].

Core Viewpoint - The education sector is expected to outperform the market, driven by demographic advantages and regulatory normalization, with significant opportunities in K12 education and vocational training [1][2]. Industry Trends and Outlook - Policies such as birth allowances are positively impacting the education sector, while K12 education is undergoing normalized regulation, enhancing consumer expectations [1]. - The decline in birth rates is leading to a decrease in the number of primary school students, with the Greater Bay Area showing significant demographic advantages [1]. - There is a strong desire for higher education, with increasing enrollment rates in general high schools and growing recognition of vocational education [1]. AI Education Development - The acceleration of AI education products is benefiting from technological advancements, with traditional education brands rapidly developing their own AI solutions [2]. - The education sector is characterized by strong domestic demand and essential needs, although there may be further differentiation in payment willingness for different educational services [2]. Market Performance Review - From January 1 to June 12, 2025, the education index rose by 5.04%, outperforming the CSI 800 index, which fell by 0.46% [3]. - Companies like China Eastern Education are leading in vocational training, while K12 education shows significant differentiation, with some firms like Gaotu and Youdao reaching profitability [3]. Subsector Analysis and Outlook - In primary and junior high education, the implementation of policies like "double reduction" is affecting K9 schools, but demand for high-quality educational services remains strong [4]. - The high school sector is experiencing a favorable policy environment, with continued population advantages expected to support growth [4]. - Vocational training is in demand, although the recruitment of students in secondary vocational schools is under pressure [4]. - The number of candidates for postgraduate exams and studying abroad has declined, indicating potential negative growth pressures in these areas [4]. Vocational Training and Public Examination - Vocational training is closely linked to economic cycles and industry conditions, with a high number of candidates for public examinations but a decreasing pass rate [5].