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李宁(02331):第三季度流水下滑中单位数,四季度新品有望密集发布
Guoxin Securities· 2025-10-26 13:59
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - In Q3 2025, the company's sales revenue experienced a mid-single-digit decline year-on-year, with a slowdown compared to the first half of the year. However, e-commerce sales recorded a high single-digit growth. The discount rate has deepened compared to the previous period, and the inventory-to-sales ratio has increased to 5-6 months due to holiday and promotional stocking. The fourth quarter is expected to see a concentrated release of new products [3][4][12] - The company has a healthy operational foundation and potential for brand growth acceleration through future marketing efforts. The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is estimated at 2.512 billion, 2.825 billion, and 3.043 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -16.6%, +12.5%, and +7.7% [3][13] Summary by Sections Retail Performance - As of September 30, 2025, the company's retail revenue (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) recorded a mid-single-digit decline year-on-year. Offline channels (including retail and wholesale) saw a high single-digit decline, while e-commerce virtual store business achieved high single-digit growth [2][3] Store Count - As of September 30, 2025, the total number of sales points in China (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) was 6,132, a net increase of 33 from the previous quarter. The retail business saw a net decrease of 46 stores, while the wholesale business had a net increase of 61 stores. Li Ning YOUNG had 1,480 sales points, with a net increase of 45 from the previous quarter [2] Product Launches - The fourth quarter is expected to see a concentrated release of new products, including new technology fabric "super water-repellent" running shoes and various iterations of basketball and outdoor products [5][6][12] Financial Forecast - The company’s revenue for 2025 is projected to be 29.34 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3%. The net profit for 2025 is expected to be 2.512 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 16.6% compared to the previous year [14][18]