2025Q4 运动鞋服终端销售存在一定的压力，但各品牌公司库存情况仍 然稳健。1）从流水层面来看，2025Q4 受到国内消费环境波动、气温偏暖 以及 2026 年春节较晚导致的年货消费滞后影响，2025Q4 国内部分运动 鞋服品牌终端销售存在一定压力，安踏集团旗下安踏品牌 Q4 流水同比下 降低单位数，Fila 品牌以及其他品牌分部表现仍较好，流水分别增长中单 位数/35%~40%；李宁流水同比下降低单位数；特步品牌流水同比持平； 361 度表现相对强劲，线下成人装/童装流水分别增长 10%，电商也实现 了双位数增长。 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 01 25 年 月 日 纺织服饰 周专题：2025Q4 运动鞋服公司经营总结 【本周专题】 服饰制造 2026 年订单有望环比改善，推荐进入产能释放周期的优质个 2）从库存层面来看，经过四季度的积极去化与双十一、双十二等大促带 动，我们判断目前各个运动品牌的库销比水平均已回落至 4-5 或略高于 5 的区间，整体处于健康可控水平。 股。目前行业库存基本健康，期待下游稳健补库带来的上游订单增长， 推荐估值具备性价比、核心客户趋势向好 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's overall revenue for Q4 experienced a low single-digit decline, with offline channels showing a moderate decrease while e-commerce remained stable [1] - The company anticipates a slight growth in total revenue for the year 2025, with strong contributions from specialized channels like badminton, which saw over 30% growth in the first three quarters [2] - The company is focusing on core professional sports and outdoor categories for growth, while also optimizing lifestyle products [2] - The sponsorship of the Chinese Olympic Committee is expected to enhance brand confidence and visibility, although translating this into sales will take time [2] Financial Summary - The projected total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 29,046 million, reflecting a 1% year-over-year growth [5] - The expected net profit for 2025 is 2,461 million, representing an 18% decline from the previous year [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.95, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.46 [3][5] - The company forecasts net profits of 24.61 billion, 26.83 billion, and 28.44 billion for the fiscal years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's retail performance showed a low single-digit decline in sales for the fourth quarter ending December 31, 2025, with offline channels experiencing a mid-single-digit decline and e-commerce remaining flat. The total number of sales points in China was 6,091, a net decrease of 41 from the previous quarter [2][3] - The fourth quarter saw a narrowing decline in sales compared to the third quarter, primarily due to a reduction in the decline of offline channels. The inventory turnover ratio improved to 4-5 months, and new product launches were frequent, including the opening of flagship stores and outdoor stores [2][3][5] - The company is expected to benefit from effective cost control and government subsidies, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with projected net profits of 26.2 billion, 28.0 billion, and 32.9 billion yuan respectively [2][11] Summary by Sections Retail Performance - For the fourth quarter, the company's sales point performance (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) recorded a low single-digit decline year-on-year. The offline channel saw a mid-single-digit decline, while e-commerce remained stable. The total number of sales points decreased by 41 from the previous quarter [2][3] Sales and Discounts - The fourth quarter saw a low single-digit decline in sales, which improved compared to the third quarter. Retail and wholesale channels experienced low and mid-single-digit declines respectively, while e-commerce remained flat. The discount levels deepened slightly, with inventory turnover improving to 4-5 months [4][5] New Products and Store Formats - The company launched a series of new products in the fourth quarter, including innovative running shoes designed for wet weather. Additionally, the company opened its first outdoor specialty store and a flagship "Dragon Store" in Beijing, targeting the middle-class consumer segment [5][11] Financial Forecasts - The company revised its profit forecasts upward, expecting net profits of 26.2 billion, 28.0 billion, and 32.9 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -13.1%, +7.0%, and +17.3% [11][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - In Q3 2025, the company's sales revenue experienced a mid-single-digit decline year-on-year, with a slowdown compared to the first half of the year. However, e-commerce sales recorded a high single-digit growth. The discount rate has deepened compared to the previous period, and the inventory-to-sales ratio has increased to 5-6 months due to holiday and promotional stocking. The fourth quarter is expected to see a concentrated release of new products [3][4][12] - The company has a healthy operational foundation and potential for brand growth acceleration through future marketing efforts. The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is estimated at 2.512 billion, 2.825 billion, and 3.043 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -16.6%, +12.5%, and +7.7% [3][13] Summary by Sections Retail Performance - As of September 30, 2025, the company's retail revenue (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) recorded a mid-single-digit decline year-on-year. Offline channels (including retail and wholesale) saw a high single-digit decline, while e-commerce virtual store business achieved high single-digit growth [2][3] Store Count - As of September 30, 2025, the total number of sales points in China (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) was 6,132, a net increase of 33 from the previous quarter. The retail business saw a net decrease of 46 stores, while the wholesale business had a net increase of 61 stores. Li Ning YOUNG had 1,480 sales points, with a net increase of 45 from the previous quarter [2] Product Launches - The fourth quarter is expected to see a concentrated release of new products, including new technology fabric "super water-repellent" running shoes and various iterations of basketball and outdoor products [5][6][12] Financial Forecast - The company’s revenue for 2025 is projected to be 29.34 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3%. The net profit for 2025 is expected to be 2.512 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 16.6% compared to the previous year [14][18]