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金雷股份(300443):出货延续高增 盈利持续改善
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-29 06:38
Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with a revenue of 2.12 billion and a net profit of 305 million, reflecting year-on-year growth of 61.3% and 104.6% respectively [1] - The third quarter saw a revenue of 836 million, a year-on-year increase of 39.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.5%, with a net profit of 117 million, showing a year-on-year growth of 56.5% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 10.8% [1] Operational Analysis - The wind power main shaft is experiencing accelerated growth, leading to improved profitability, with a gross margin of 24.6% for the first three quarters, up 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, and approximately 26.4% in Q3, up 1.5 percentage points year-on-year and 1.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] - The increase in gross margin is attributed to the surge in domestic wind power demand and a significant rise in the shipment volume of wind shaft products, particularly cast main shafts, which reduced unit depreciation costs and benefited from lower raw material costs [2] - The company has demonstrated scale effects with a notable improvement in expense ratios, with selling, administrative, and R&D expense ratios at 0.7%, 4.2%, and 4.4% respectively for the first three quarters, showing declines of 0.2, 1.3, and 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The industry demand forecast for 2026 has been revised upwards, with expectations of annual new installed capacity of no less than 120 GW during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, which is higher than previous industry expectations [2] - The anticipated delivery of numerous overseas orders won by downstream equipment manufacturers in 2024-2025 is expected to sustain industry demand growth, leading to improved capacity utilization for the company's casting products in 2026 [2] Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - Based on the company's Q3 report and the latest industry outlook, the projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 440 million, 570 million, and 690 million respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 23, 17, and 14 times [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on these projections [3]
金雷股份(300443):出货延续高增,盈利持续改善
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-10-29 01:06
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching 2.12 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 61.3%, and a net profit of 305 million RMB, up 104.6% year-on-year [2] - The wind power main shaft is accelerating in volume, leading to continuous improvement in profitability, with a gross margin of 24.6% for the first three quarters, up 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The industry demand for wind power is expected to remain strong, with an upward revision for 2026, which is anticipated to support the company's profit improvement trend [3] Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 836 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 39.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.5%, with a net profit of 117 million RMB, up 56.5% year-on-year but down 10.8% quarter-on-quarter [2] Operational Analysis - The company’s gross margin improved to approximately 26.4% in Q3, benefiting from increased demand for wind power and a significant rise in the shipment of wind shaft products, particularly cast main shafts [3] - The company’s expense ratios for sales, management, and R&D have decreased, indicating improved cost management as revenue scales up [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 440 million RMB, 570 million RMB, and 690 million RMB, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23, 17, and 14 [4]