饲料产业周报
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长江期货饲料产业周报-20251117
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 05:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The pig market is in a downward bottoming cycle, with short - term prices trading in a narrow range and mid - to long - term prices facing pressure due to slow capacity reduction and high supply. Egg market has a marginal improvement in supply - demand looseness, with short - term price fluctuations and long - term capacity clearance taking time. The corn market is in a new grain listing period, with short - term selling pressure and mid - to long - term cost support but a relatively loose supply - demand pattern [4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pig 3.1.1 Period and Spot Ends - As of November 14, the national spot price was 11.62 yuan/kg, down 0.20 yuan/kg from last week; Henan pig price was 11.93 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg; the futures contract 2501 closed at 11775 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton; the 01 contract basis was 155 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. Weekly pig prices first rose and then fell, with the center of gravity moving down [4][61]. 3.1.2 Supply End - In September 2025, the official inventory of breeding sows was at the upper limit of the equilibrium range. In October, the inventory of breeding sows in consulting agency samples showed one increase and one decrease, indicating slow capacity reduction. The overall sow capacity is abundant, and with improved production performance, the pressure of pig slaughter will remain high before the first half of next year. In November, the planned pig slaughter volume of scale enterprises decreased month - on - month. The fat - standard price difference widened, with retail farmers pressing栏 and group enterprises accelerating slaughter. The proportion of small pig slaughter increased, and the average slaughter weight continued to grow [4][61]. 3.1.3 Demand End - The weekly slaughter start - up rate and slaughter volume first increased and then decreased, with a slight overall increase. The low pig price at the beginning of the week drove the increase in slaughter volume, but as the price rose, consumer purchases were average, and the slaughter volume declined. The weekly white - strip price continued to fall, the fresh - sales rate decreased, and the frozen - product storage rate increased slightly [4][61]. 3.1.4 Cost End - The weekly piglet price rose slightly, and the price of binary breeding sows was stable. The losses of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets for fattening expanded. The cost of self - breeding and self - raising 5 - month - old fattening pigs decreased slightly from last week. The current pig - grain ratio is still below the warning line, and national policies should be monitored [4][61]. 3.1.5 Weekly Summary - In November, the planned slaughter volume of scale enterprises decreased month - on - month, and the supply pressure was relieved. The large fat - standard price difference and pickling demand supported the price, but the industry's caution about future prices limited the price increase. In the mid - to long - term, the reduction of breeding sow inventory is limited, and the supply will remain high before the first half of next year [4][61]. 3.1.6 Strategy Suggestion - For near - term contracts, although there is support from the pickling season, the supply shift suppresses the upside. For off - season contracts, the prices are still under pressure. Short on rebounds and pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage. For far - term contracts, be cautious about chasing up due to slow capacity reduction [4][61]. 3.2 Egg 3.2.1 Period and Spot Ends - As of November 14, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 2.97 yuan/jin, down 0.06 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main egg - selling areas was 3.04 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin. The main egg contract 2512 closed at 3033 yuan/500 kg, down 186 yuan/500 kg. The main contract basis was - 323 yuan/500 kg, up 96 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The weekly egg price fluctuated in a narrow range, and it is expected to bottom out in the next week [5][84]. 3.2.2 Supply End - The newly - hatched laying hens in November correspond to the replenishment in July 2025, with both month - on - month and year - on - year declines, but the hatching volume remains relatively high. The culling process has slowed down recently, and the inventory of laying hens in October decreased slightly month - on - month but is still at a high level. In the mid - to long - term, the replenishment volume from August to October 2025 decreased continuously, and the inventory growth rate is expected to slow down [5][84]. 3.2.3 Demand End - After the "Double Eleven" e - commerce festival, the channel procurement demand weakened, but the cooling weather increased the enthusiasm of all links to enter the market. Low egg prices stimulated the demand for channel inventory. The long - term pressure on pork prices and high vegetable prices increased the cost - effectiveness of eggs, driving the substitution demand [5][84]. 3.2.4 Weekly Summary - The culling of old hens around the Mid - Autumn Festival relieved the supply pressure, but the current culling process has slowed down. The supply is still abundant in the short term, and the egg price is expected to face pressure in the short term. In the mid - to long - term, the supply pressure will gradually ease, but it will take time [5][84]. 3.2.5 Strategy Suggestion - Currently, the main 12 - contract has a large premium over the spot. In the short term, the spot price increase has slowed down, so the futures price is bearish. In the mid - term, the inventory growth rate slows down, and the supply - demand relationship improves marginally. In the long term, capacity clearance still takes time, and attention should be paid to external factors such as environmental protection policies and epidemics [5][84]. 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Period and Spot Ends - As of November 14, the corn closing price at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2215 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton from last Friday; the main corn contract 2601 closed at 2185 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton. The main contract basis was 30 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from last Friday. The weekly national corn price was strong, but the overall market is still in the bottom - building stage [6][102]. 3.3.2 Supply End - Currently in the new grain listing period, the shipping from the Northeast to ports is inverted, and the volume of grain collection at northern ports decreased weekly. The selling progress in North China slowed down. In September, corn imports were 60,000 tons, a 50% month - on - month increase and an 80.6% year - on - year decrease. International grain imports remained at a low level. As of November 7, the inventories at northern and southern ports were 1.24 million tons and 866,000 tons respectively, with month - on - month increases [6][102]. 3.3.3 Demand End - From May to November 2024, the inventory of sows increased, and there was a slight reduction from December to January. The performance improved, and the inventory of pigs and poultry remained at a high level this year, driving rigid feed demand. As the corn price dropped significantly, the corn - wheat price difference widened, and the feed demand for corn increased. The inventory days of downstream feed enterprises stopped falling and rebounded, but are still at a low level. The deep - processing profit turned positive, and the start - up rate increased, but the finished - product inventory is high, limiting the increase in deep - processing demand [6][102]. 3.3.4 Weekly Summary - In the early stage of new grain listing, the high enthusiasm of farmers to sell grain put pressure on prices. As the number of purchasing entities increased, the slowdown in the selling rhythm supported the price. In the mid - to long - term, the 2025/2026 corn planting cost decreased, and the weather during the growing period was suitable, with expected high yields. However, the carry - over inventory of old crops is low, and imports are expected to increase but remain at a low level. The demand is rigid but weak, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [6][102]. 3.3.5 Strategy Suggestion - In the short term, the selling pressure needs to be digested, so be cautious about chasing up the futures price. In the mid - to long - term, the demand will gradually be released, and there is strong support at the bottom, but the relatively loose supply - demand pattern in 2025/2026 limits the upside [6][102].