Report Overview - Report Title: Feed and Livestock Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: July 25, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Ge Yan [3] Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - During the speculation period in the US soybean producing areas, there have been frequent positive developments on the trade front, and the support level of 10 cents for US soybeans is relatively strong. However, due to concerns about domestic demand, the prices of double rapeseed meal have declined from their highs. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China held a symposium on promoting the high - quality development of the pig industry, emphasizing capacity control measures, such as reasonable culling of sows, reduction of secondary fattening, and control of fat pig slaughter weight, and promoting the reduction and substitution of soybean meal. - For soybean meal, in the short - term, it is supported by the import cost of US and Brazilian soybeans, and short - term long positions can be considered; in the long - term, due to factors such as slowing demand growth and continuous inventory accumulation, short positions can be held. - For rapeseed meal, in the short - term, considering the low inventory of domestic coastal oil mills and uncertain trade relations, short - term long positions can be held; in the long - term, it can be configured with a bearish view [41]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Domestic Main Feed and Livestock Futures and Spot Price Trends - **Futures Prices**: As of July 24, 2025, the closing prices of the main contracts of soybean meal (M2509), rapeseed meal (RM509), corn (C2509), live pigs (LH2509), and eggs (JD2508) were 3025, 2682, 2318, 14365, and 3636 respectively, with weekly increases of 48, 29, 25, 355, and 45, and weekly growth rates of 0.02, 0.01, 0.01, 0.03, and 0.01 respectively [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of 43% protein soybean meal, rapeseed meal, national standard second - grade corn with 14.5% moisture, commercial pigs in Henan, and eggs in the main producing areas were 2850, 2570, 2320, 1413, and 334 respectively, with weekly changes of 40, 20, 0, - 39, and 55, and weekly growth rates of 0.01, 0.01, 0, - 0.03, and 0.20 respectively [4]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Cost Side** - **Weather**: August is a critical month for the autumn soybean harvest. There will be a brief heatwave in the US Midwest this week, but showers are expected to relieve the pressure on soybean crop growth. - **US Soybeans**: The USDA downgraded the good - to - excellent rating of US soybean growth. As of July 20, the good - to - excellent rate was 68%, lower than the previous week's 70% and the market expectation of 71%, but the same as the 68% in the same period of 2024. - **Brazil**: Brazilian farmers' selling progress has accelerated, but it is still relatively slow overall. - **Argentina**: In June, Argentina's soybean crushing volume was 4,055,149 tons, and its soybean oil production was 788,210 tons [10]. - **Supply** - **Import**: In June 2025, China imported 12.264 million tons of soybeans; from January to June 2025, China's cumulative soybean imports were 49.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. - **Import Price**: As of July 24, the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was 471.00 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous week; the CNF import price of US West Coast soybeans was 454.00 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous week [10][17]. - **Demand** - **Crushing**: As of the week of July 18, the domestic main oil mills' soybean crushing volume was 2.3 million tons, unchanged from the previous week, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the previous month, an increase of 410,000 tons year - on - year, and an increase of 510,000 tons compared with the average of the past three years. This week, the oil mills' operating rate remained high, with a crushing volume of about 2.2 million tons. - **Trading Volume**: On July 23, the total trading volume of soybean meal was 110,300 tons, a decrease of 24,500 tons from the previous day, including 44,300 tons of spot trading [10]. - **Inventory** - **Oil Mill Inventory**: In the 29th week of 2025, the national oil mills' soybean inventory was 6.4224 million tons, a decrease of 152,500 tons from the previous week, a year - on - year increase of 310,400 tons; the soybean meal inventory was 998,400 tons, an increase of 112,200 tons from the previous week, a year - on - year decrease of 262,200 tons. - **Port Inventory**: As of July 24, the import soybean port inventory was 6.6793 million tons, an increase of 103,100 tons from the previous week, at a near - 5 - year low level. As of July 19, the oil mills' soybean meal inventory was 908,300 tons, an increase of 65,400 tons from the previous week, at a near - 5 - year medium level [10][25]. 3. Supply - Side Analysis - **Import**: As of July 24, the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was 471.00 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton from the previous week; the CNF import price of US West Coast soybeans was 454.00 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar/ton from the previous week [17]. - **Crushing**: As of the week of July 24, the soybean crushing profit was 91.60 yuan/ton, an increase of 25.45 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week of July 18, the domestic oil mills' weekly soybean crushing volume was 2.1476 million tons, an increase of 175,000 tons from the previous week. As of July 18, the domestic soybean oil mill operating rate was 55%, a decrease of 4 percentage points from the previous week [23]. 4. Demand - Side Analysis As of July 18, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 113,700 tons, a decrease of 122,000 tons from the previous week, at a near - 5 - year medium - low level [29]. 5. Strategy Recommendation - **Short - Term**: For soybean meal, due to the support from the import cost of US and Brazilian soybeans, short - term long positions can be considered; for rapeseed meal, considering the low inventory of domestic coastal oil mills and uncertain trade relations, short - term long positions can be held. - **Long - Term**: For soybean meal, due to factors such as slowing demand growth and continuous inventory accumulation, short positions can be held; for rapeseed meal, it can be configured with a bearish view [41]. 6. Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning The focus is on the weather in the producing areas, trade relations, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [42].