长江期货饲料产业周报 2025-11-17 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 饲料养殖观点汇总 02 品种产业数据分析 目 录 01 生猪：下行筑底周期，期价反弹承压 ◆ 期现端：截至11月14日，全国现货价格11.62元/公斤，较上周跌0.20元/公斤；河南猪价11.93元/公斤，较上周跌0.11元/公斤；生猪2501收至11775元/吨，较上周跌90元/吨；01合 约基差155元/吨，较上周跌20元/吨。周度生猪价格先扬后抑，重心下移，周初养殖端惜售情绪增强，屠宰需求增加，现货有所反弹，随着价格涨高后集团出栏情绪提升，而需求跟 进有限，价格高位回落；期货主力01低位震荡，小幅贴水，基差小跌；周末现货偏弱调整。 ◆ 供应端：官方2025年9月能繁母猪存栏量处于均衡区间上限，10月咨询机构样本能繁母猪存栏一增一降，显示产能去化仍偏慢，整体母猪产能充裕，叠加生产性能提升，在疫情相 对平稳情况下，往后推10个月对应明年上半年之前生猪出栏压力仍大；根据仔猪和中大 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the easing of Sino-US trade relations, the market's optimistic sentiment towards demand weakened this week, leading to a decline in US soybeans from their high levels. Supported by import costs, soybean meal showed relative strength. Driven by Sino-Canadian trade sentiment, rapeseed meal rose strongly [33]. - In the short term, the weakening demand expectation caused US soybeans to fall from their high levels. There is still supply pressure in the domestic market, and the upward momentum of soybean meal is waning. The rapeseed meal supply is in a tight balance, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and the development of Sino-Canadian relations [33]. - In the long - term, changes in trade relations remain the key driver for the supply of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal [34]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Trends of Feed and Livestock Futures and Spot Goods - The closing prices of the main futures contracts of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, corn, and eggs increased this week, with week - on - week increases of 2.47%, 6.16%, 2.04%, and 2.22% respectively. The closing price of the main futures contract of live pigs increased by 0.51%. The spot prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and corn increased, with week - on - week increases of 1.34%, 4.76%, and 1.17% respectively. The spot price of live pigs decreased by 4.40%, and the spot price of eggs increased by 0.34% [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Cost - end - The weather in the Midwestern United States is conducive to the remaining harvest work. The US Department of Agriculture will release crop production reports and global agricultural supply - demand forecasts on November 14. Brokerage firm StoneX predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach a record 178.9 million tons. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expects Argentina to harvest 48.5 million tons of soybeans this year, and farmers have sown 4.4% of the expected 17.6 million hectares [6]. 3.2.2 Supply - China's soybean imports in October reached a new high for the month at 9.482 million tons, but decreased by 26.3% compared to September. The cumulative imports from January to October were 95.682 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4% [6]. 3.2.3 Demand - As of the end of the 44th week (November 1), the average operating rate of domestic oil mills was 61.59%, a decrease of 4.83% from the previous week. The total soybean crushing volume of national oil mills was 2.311 million tons, a decrease of 0.1813 million tons from the previous week. The expected soybean processing volume for this week is slightly reduced to 2.2019 million tons, and the operating rate is 58.69%. On November 6, the trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was light, with a sharp drop of 78% to 38,600 tons [6]. 3.2.4 Inventory - In the 44th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of domestic main oil mills was 7.1079 million tons, a decrease of 405,000 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 5.39%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.6005 million tons, an increase of 29.06%. The soybean meal inventory was 1.153 million tons, an increase of 98,400 tons from the previous week, an increase of 9.33%, and a year - on - year increase of 168,900 tons, an increase of 17.16% [6]. 3.3 Supply - end Analysis 3.3.1 Import - As of November 6, the CNF price of Brazilian soybeans for import was $500 per ton, an increase of $7 per ton from the previous week. The CNF price of US West soybeans for import was $506 per ton, an increase of $15 per ton from the previous week [10]. 3.3.2 Pressing - As of the week of November 6, the soybean crushing profit was -$79.25 per ton, an increase of $43.05 per ton from the previous week. As of the week of October 31, the weekly soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.1161 million tons, a decrease of 269,500 tons from the previous week. As of October 31, the operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 54%, a decrease of 7 percentage points from the previous week [15]. 3.4 Inventory - end Analysis - As of November 7, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 7.8265 million tons, a decrease of 575,700 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean port inventory is at a relatively high level in the past five years. As of October 31, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 1.0593 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean meal inventory of domestic mainstream oil mills is at a relatively high level in the past five years [21]. 3.5 Demand - end Analysis - As of October 31, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 85,700 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, it is at a medium level in the past five years [25]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Analysis 3.6.1 Supply - end - The core contradiction in the rapeseed meal market is the tight supply. The Sino - Canadian trade relationship has not eased, resulting in a continuous interruption of Canadian rapeseed imports. Domestic oil mills have shut down, and inventories are almost zero, with the supply in a tight balance. Although the procurement of Australian rapeseed has restarted, the actual supply will not be available until the first quarter of next year, unable to make up for the shortfall in the fourth quarter of this year [33]. 3.6.2 Demand and Inventory - end - The demand side is weak due to the off - season of aquaculture and the substitution advantage of soybean meal, which restricts the upward space of prices [33]. 3.7 Strategy Recommendation - In the short term, the upward momentum of soybean meal is waning, and attention should be paid to the inventory changes and the development of Sino - Canadian relations for rapeseed meal. In the long - term, changes in trade relations are the key drivers for the supply of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal [33][34]. 3.8 Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning - The focus is on the weather in production areas, trade relations, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: Rising import costs drive up domestic prices. For soybean meal, wait for more details on US soybean purchases; for rapeseed meal, supply tightens but demand also decreases significantly, lacking continuous positive fundamentals [39]. - Medium - to long - term: Global soybean supply is abundant, limiting the continuous upward momentum of the soybean sector [40]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Feed and Livestock Futures and Spot Price Trends - **Soybean Meal**: The closing price of the M2601 futures contract on October 30, 2025, was 2994 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton (1.91%) from October 23. The spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in Shandong was 2980 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (1.36%) [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The RM601 futures contract closed at 2401 yuan/ton on October 30, 2025, up 62 yuan/ton (2.65%) from October 23. The average spot price in China was 2520 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton (2.44%) [4]. - **Corn**: The C2601 futures contract closed at 2111 yuan/ton on October 30, 2025, down 29 yuan/ton (-1.36%) from October 23. The summary price at Bayuquan Port was 2140 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton (-1.83%) [4]. - **Pigs**: The LH2601 futures contract closed at 11880 yuan/ton on October 30, 2025, down 320 yuan/ton (-2.62%) from October 23. The average slaughter price of commercial pigs in Henan was 12.49 yuan/kg, up 0.62 yuan/kg (2.25%) [4]. - **Eggs**: The JD2511 futures contract closed at 3157 yuan/ton on October 30, 2025, up 130 yuan/ton (4.29%) from October 23. The average price in the main producing areas of China was 2.93 yuan/kg, up 0.07 yuan/kg (2.45%) [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Cost - end**: US Midwest has sporadic showers, and cold air may disrupt harvesting and field operations. US soybean export inspections are at the lower end of market expectations, down 33% from the previous week and 60% from the same period in 2024. Brazil's soybean exports in October 2025 are estimated at 7 million tons, lower than the previous estimate but still up 58.0% from last year. The first shipment of Argentine soybean meal has arrived, but its impact on prices is limited [10]. - **Supply - end**: In September 2025, China's soybean imports were 12.869 million tons, up 4.8% month - on - month and 13.2% year - on - year [10]. - **Demand - end**: As of the week of October 25, 2025, the national soybean crushing volume rebounded to a high level, and the提货量 decreased, leading to an increase in soybean meal inventory. On October 29, the total soybean meal trading volume of major domestic oil mills was 53,500 tons, down 59,900 tons from the previous day [10]. - **Inventory - end**: In the 43rd week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills decreased, while the soybean meal inventory increased. The soybean inventory was 7.5129 million tons, down 174,100 tons (2.26%) from the previous week; the soybean meal inventory was 1.0546 million tons, up 78,400 tons (8.03%) from the previous week [10]. 3.3 Supply - end - Import - As of October 30, the CNF price of Brazilian soybeans was 489.00 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton from the previous week. The CNF price of US West soybeans was 482.00 US dollars/ton, up 28 US dollars/ton from the previous week [18]. 3.4 Supply - end - Pressing - As of the week of October 30, the soybean pressing profit was - 130.15 yuan/ton, down 1.65 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week of October 24, the weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.3856 million tons, up 86,800 tons from the previous week. As of October 24, the domestic soybean oil mill operating rate was 61%, up 3 percentage points from the previous week [24]. 3.5 Inventory - end - As of October 30, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 8.3496 million tons, up 236,900 tons from the previous week, at a very high level in the past five years. As of October 24, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 1.0044 million tons, up 41,300 tons from the previous week, at a relatively high level in the past five years [28]. 3.6 Demand - end - As of October 24, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal of domestic mainstream oil mills was 85,000 tons, down 37,300 tons from the previous week, at a medium level in the past five years [32]. 3.7 Rapeseed Meal Supply - end No specific data - based summary content is provided other than the graphs related to rapeseed import quantity, production, and sowing area [35]. 3.8 Rapeseed Meal Demand and Inventory - end No specific data - based summary content is provided other than the graphs related to inventory, supply, demand, trading volume, and consumption [38]. 3.9 Strategy Recommendation - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term, wait for more details on US soybean purchases. Medium - to long - term, the continuous upward momentum is limited due to abundant global supply. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term, supply is tight but demand is weak, lacking continuous positive fundamentals. 3.10 Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning The focus is on产区 weather, trade relations, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [41].

Report Overview - Report Title: Feed and Livestock Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: July 25, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Ge Yan [3] Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - During the speculation period in the US soybean producing areas, there have been frequent positive developments on the trade front, and the support level of 10 cents for US soybeans is relatively strong. However, due to concerns about domestic demand, the prices of double rapeseed meal have declined from their highs. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China held a symposium on promoting the high - quality development of the pig industry, emphasizing capacity control measures, such as reasonable culling of sows, reduction of secondary fattening, and control of fat pig slaughter weight, and promoting the reduction and substitution of soybean meal. - For soybean meal, in the short - term, it is supported by the import cost of US and Brazilian soybeans, and short - term long positions can be considered; in the long - term, due to factors such as slowing demand growth and continuous inventory accumulation, short positions can be held. - For rapeseed meal, in the short - term, considering the low inventory of domestic coastal oil mills and uncertain trade relations, short - term long positions can be held; in the long - term, it can be configured with a bearish view [41]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Domestic Main Feed and Livestock Futures and Spot Price Trends - **Futures Prices**: As of July 24, 2025, the closing prices of the main contracts of soybean meal (M2509), rapeseed meal (RM509), corn (C2509), live pigs (LH2509), and eggs (JD2508) were 3025, 2682, 2318, 14365, and 3636 respectively, with weekly increases of 48, 29, 25, 355, and 45, and weekly growth rates of 0.02, 0.01, 0.01, 0.03, and 0.01 respectively [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of 43% protein soybean meal, rapeseed meal, national standard second - grade corn with 14.5% moisture, commercial pigs in Henan, and eggs in the main producing areas were 2850, 2570, 2320, 1413, and 334 respectively, with weekly changes of 40, 20, 0, - 39, and 55, and weekly growth rates of 0.01, 0.01, 0, - 0.03, and 0.20 respectively [4]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Cost Side** - **Weather**: August is a critical month for the autumn soybean harvest. There will be a brief heatwave in the US Midwest this week, but showers are expected to relieve the pressure on soybean crop growth. - **US Soybeans**: The USDA downgraded the good - to - excellent rating of US soybean growth. As of July 20, the good - to - excellent rate was 68%, lower than the previous week's 70% and the market expectation of 71%, but the same as the 68% in the same period of 2024. - **Brazil**: Brazilian farmers' selling progress has accelerated, but it is still relatively slow overall. - **Argentina**: In June, Argentina's soybean crushing volume was 4,055,149 tons, and its soybean oil production was 788,210 tons [10]. - **Supply** - **Import**: In June 2025, China imported 12.264 million tons of soybeans; from January to June 2025, China's cumulative soybean imports were 49.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. - **Import Price**: As of July 24, the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was 471.00 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous week; the CNF import price of US West Coast soybeans was 454.00 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous week [10][17]. - **Demand** - **Crushing**: As of the week of July 18, the domestic main oil mills' soybean crushing volume was 2.3 million tons, unchanged from the previous week, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the previous month, an increase of 410,000 tons year - on - year, and an increase of 510,000 tons compared with the average of the past three years. This week, the oil mills' operating rate remained high, with a crushing volume of about 2.2 million tons. - **Trading Volume**: On July 23, the total trading volume of soybean meal was 110,300 tons, a decrease of 24,500 tons from the previous day, including 44,300 tons of spot trading [10]. - **Inventory** - **Oil Mill Inventory**: In the 29th week of 2025, the national oil mills' soybean inventory was 6.4224 million tons, a decrease of 152,500 tons from the previous week, a year - on - year increase of 310,400 tons; the soybean meal inventory was 998,400 tons, an increase of 112,200 tons from the previous week, a year - on - year decrease of 262,200 tons. - **Port Inventory**: As of July 24, the import soybean port inventory was 6.6793 million tons, an increase of 103,100 tons from the previous week, at a near - 5 - year low level. As of July 19, the oil mills' soybean meal inventory was 908,300 tons, an increase of 65,400 tons from the previous week, at a near - 5 - year medium level [10][25]. 3. Supply - Side Analysis - **Import**: As of July 24, the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was 471.00 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton from the previous week; the CNF import price of US West Coast soybeans was 454.00 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar/ton from the previous week [17]. - **Crushing**: As of the week of July 24, the soybean crushing profit was 91.60 yuan/ton, an increase of 25.45 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week of July 18, the domestic oil mills' weekly soybean crushing volume was 2.1476 million tons, an increase of 175,000 tons from the previous week. As of July 18, the domestic soybean oil mill operating rate was 55%, a decrease of 4 percentage points from the previous week [23]. 4. Demand - Side Analysis As of July 18, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 113,700 tons, a decrease of 122,000 tons from the previous week, at a near - 5 - year medium - low level [29]. 5. Strategy Recommendation - **Short - Term**: For soybean meal, due to the support from the import cost of US and Brazilian soybeans, short - term long positions can be considered; for rapeseed meal, considering the low inventory of domestic coastal oil mills and uncertain trade relations, short - term long positions can be held. - **Long - Term**: For soybean meal, due to factors such as slowing demand growth and continuous inventory accumulation, short positions can be held; for rapeseed meal, it can be configured with a bearish view [41]. 6. Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning The focus is on the weather in the producing areas, trade relations, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [42].