Core Viewpoint - ASML's stock price plummeted following the release of its Q2 2025 earnings report, despite exceeding revenue and profit expectations, due to a cautious outlook for future growth and narrowed annual guidance [2][3][7]. Financial Performance - Q2 net sales reached €7.7 billion (approximately $8.95 billion), surpassing the expected €7.52 billion [3]. - Q2 net profit was €2.29 billion, exceeding the forecast of €2.04 billion [3]. - The actual net new orders for Q2 were €5.5 billion, significantly higher than the anticipated €4.19 billion [3]. Future Guidance - For Q3, ASML expects revenue between €7.4 billion and €7.9 billion, below the market expectation of €8.3 billion [7]. - The company has narrowed its full-year revenue growth forecast for 2025 to approximately €32.5 billion, down from a previous range of €30 billion to €35 billion [7]. - ASML expressed uncertainty about achieving growth in 2026 due to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors [8]. Market Context - ASML is a critical player in the semiconductor supply chain, producing extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment essential for advanced chip manufacturing [9]. - The demand for AI-related chips is a significant growth driver for ASML, with the company recently delivering a next-generation High NA EUV machine [9]. Regulatory Environment - The company faces uncertainties related to U.S. tariff policies affecting the shipment of new equipment and components, which could impact profit margins [11]. - Current semiconductor products are exempt from tariffs in the U.S., but future implications for chip manufacturing equipment remain uncertain [11]. - The potential lifting of export restrictions on AI processors could positively influence chip demand [11].

Core Viewpoint - ASML's stock price plummeted following warnings from management that growth in 2026 may not be achievable, despite exceeding expectations in Q2 2025 revenue and profit [1][5]. Financial Performance - ASML reported Q2 2025 net sales of €77 billion (approximately $89.5 billion), surpassing the expected €75.2 billion [7]. - The net profit for the same quarter was €22.9 billion, exceeding the forecast of €20.4 billion [7]. - The company’s net new orders for Q2 were €55 billion, significantly higher than the analyst expectation of €41.9 billion [5]. Future Guidance - For Q3 2025, ASML expects revenue between €74 billion and €79 billion, which is below the market expectation of €83 billion [10]. - The full-year revenue growth forecast for 2025 has been narrowed to approximately €325 billion, down from a previous range of €300 billion to €350 billion [10]. - CEO Christophe Fouquet expressed concerns about the uncertainty in macroeconomic and geopolitical developments affecting the outlook for 2026 [10]. Market Impact - Following the announcement, ASML's stock fell over 7% to €654.70 per share, marking the largest single-day drop since April [6]. - Over the past year, ASML's stock has declined by 33% [6]. Industry Context - ASML is a critical player in the semiconductor supply chain, producing extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment essential for manufacturing advanced chips for companies like Apple and NVIDIA [10]. - The demand for AI-related chips is a significant driver for ASML's EUV technology [10]. Tariff and Profit Pressure - The company faces uncertainties due to U.S. tariff policies affecting the shipment of new equipment and components, which could impact profit margins [12]. - Current semiconductor products are exempt from tariffs in the U.S., but future implications for chip manufacturing equipment remain uncertain [12].