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东莞证券研究所负责人曹君瑞:“十五五”规划建议夯实中国式现代化战略根基
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-11-11 23:01
Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" proposal has been approved, providing direction for China's economic and social development over the next five years [1] - China's economy has shown resilience and strategic determination in the face of global trade challenges, with significant policy collaboration and structural upgrades expected to drive high-quality development [1][5] Economic Performance - In the first three quarters, China's total goods import and export amounted to 33.6078 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, with exports reaching 19.945 trillion yuan, growing by 7.1% [2] - The export structure has continued to optimize, with mechanical and electrical products seeing a 9.6% increase, accounting for 60.5% of total exports [2] - Trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative grew by 6.2% [2] Strategic Focus - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of technological self-reliance and innovation as key drivers for modernizing the economy [4] - The plan aims to enhance the quality and scale of economic development through a modern industrial system supported by technological advancements [3][4] - The share of the "new economy" (new industries, new business formats, and new models) in GDP is projected to exceed 18% in 2024, indicating a shift towards new productive forces [4] Future Outlook - The implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to release dividends from policy collaboration and structural upgrades, facilitating a profound transformation from scale growth to quality improvement in the economy [5] - The focus on technological innovation will not only enhance domestic capabilities but also position China as a standard-setter in global governance [4][5]
“十五五”规划建议夯实中国式现代化战略根基
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-11-11 20:10
曹君瑞对记者表示,党的二十届四中全会将"加快高水平科技自立自强,引领发展新质生产力"提升至战 略高度,"科技自立自强水平大幅提高"也被列为"十五五"时期经济社会发展的主要目标之一,这标志着 科技创新已成为驱动中国式现代化进程的关键引擎:"在高质量发展导向下,政策重心正从技术突破向 构建现代化产业体系转变,凸显出对科技大规模应用与产业可持续性发展的深度聚焦。" 在曹君瑞看来,2024年我国"三新"经济(以新产业、新业态、新商业模式为核心内容的经济活动)增加 值占全年GDP的比重已超过18%,昭示新质生产力正在重塑经济增长内核,人工智能等前沿技术的融合 渗透,正通过优化人力配置、释放数据价值,持续提升全要素生产率。展望"十五五"时期,政策将着力 打通从技术研发到产业落地的全链条,构建具有全球竞争力的现代产业体系,这也是以内生性创新赋能 高质量发展、塑造国际竞争新优势的战略抉择;与此同时,以科技创新为核心的安全体系重构,将推动 我国从全球规则的适应者向标准制定者转变,为现代化建设提供新型战略支撑。 在曹君瑞看来,前三季度我国出口产业景气度高企,离不开高端机电等产品受到国际厂商的认可。受益 于完备的产业链以及新质生产 ...