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国盛证券:智驾核心部件壁垒高筑 国产芯片替代正当时
智通财经网· 2025-08-11 07:25
Core Insights - The report from Guosheng Securities highlights that System on Chip (SoC) is the mainstream trend for automotive computing chips, with high barriers to entry due to design and manufacturing complexities, high capital investment, and long validation cycles, making intelligent driving chips the most valuable core component in intelligent driving systems [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - The trend of integrated cockpit and driving systems is significant, which can reduce costs, with single-chip solutions like NVIDIA Thor and Qualcomm 8775 expected to achieve large-scale production by 2025 [1] - The penetration of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) is accelerating, with the market for L3 and above intelligent driving systems expected to grow significantly, particularly in lower-priced vehicle segments [2] Group 2: Market Size and Growth - According to Frost & Sullivan, the global and Chinese ADAS SoC market sizes are projected to reach 275 billion and 141 billion yuan in 2023, respectively, with expected growth to 925 billion and 496 billion yuan by 2028, reflecting compound annual growth rates of 28% and 29% [2] - The ADS market (L3 to L5) is still in its early development stage, with expectations for the global ADS SoC market to reach 45.4 billion yuan by 2030 [2] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - NVIDIA holds a dominant position in the domestic intelligent driving assistance chip market with a 39% market share in 2024, while Horizon Robotics and Black Sesame Intelligence are expected to increase their market shares due to the trend of domestic substitution [3] - The intelligent driving chip industry is currently characterized by high investment, high growth, and low profitability, with companies generally operating at a loss, but scale effects are beginning to show, leading to a gradual narrowing of loss rates [3] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The rapid increase in intelligent driving penetration is creating significant market space, leading to high growth in demand for intelligent driving chips, with opportunities for high-cost performance domestic chips [4] - Companies to watch include Horizon Robotics (09660), Black Sesame Intelligence (02533), NVIDIA (NVDA.US), Qualcomm (QCOM.US), XPeng Motors (09868), and Tesla (TSLA.US) [4]