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燃料油早报-20250925
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 01:13
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - This week, the cracking spread of Singapore 380cst high - sulfur fuel oil oscillated, the near - month spread oscillated, the basis strengthened slightly, the EW spread rebounded again, and recently showed wide - range oscillations. The domestic FU showed an oscillating and slightly bullish trend in the short term. The low - sulfur cracking spread rebounded slightly but was at a historically low level compared to the same period. The month - spread was weakly sorted. The domestic and foreign prices of LU rebounded slightly to $8 - 9 per ton, and the MF0.5 basis oscillated [3][4]. - Fundamentally, Singapore's residue decreased, floating storage oscillated, ARA residue inventory decreased slightly, EIA residue decreased slightly, Fujairah inventory decreased, and high - sulfur floating storage in the Middle East increased significantly. The high - sulfur peak season in the Middle East has passed. Supported by the reshaping of logistics and the demand for high - sulfur marine fuel in Singapore, the EW spread has been repaired. Recently, refinery feedstock purchases have supported the 380 cracking level, with limited short - term downside space, and the 380 cracking spread is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [4]. - This week, the LU market remained weak. The issuance of the third batch of export quotas was in line with expectations, and the MF0.5 basis of the outer market oscillated at a low level. In the fourth quarter, one can buy on dips to widen the domestic and foreign spreads of LU, and pay attention to the quota usage [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | Initial Value (2025/09/18) | Final Value (2025/09/22) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 383.35 | 386.97 | 5.78 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 434.21 | 427.29 | 3.12 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 6.64 | - 4.97 | 0.17 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 677.55 | 664.85 | 5.62 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - G O M1 | - 243.34 | - 237.56 | - 2.50 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 25.18 | 24.40 | - 0.91 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 50.86 | 40.32 | - 2.66 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | Initial Value (2025/09/18) | Final Value (2025/09/24) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 396.06 | 405.15 | 10.91 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 407.26 | 414.65 | 12.15 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 472.28 | 468.56 | 5.45 | | Singapore GO M1 | 88.34 | 88.66 | 2.00 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 4.97 | - 3.17 | 0.57 | | Singapore VLSFO - G O M1 | - 181.44 | - 187.52 | - 9.35 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Product | Initial Value (2025/09/18) | Final Value (2025/09/24) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 397.47 | 406.82 | 11.62 | | FOB VLSFO | 472.07 | 466.07 | 4.92 | | 380 Basis | 0.60 | 1.45 | 0.45 | | High - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 7.5 | 6.9 | - 2.8 | | Low - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 9.7 | 9.4 | - 0.5 | [2] Domestic FU Data | Product | Initial Value (2025/09/18) | Final Value (2025/09/24) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2798 | 2860 | 101 | | FU 05 | 2754 | 2808 | 90 | | FU 09 | 2698 | 2726 | 53 | | FU 01 - 05 | 44 | 52 | 11 | | FU 05 - 09 | 56 | 82 | 37 | | FU 09 - 01 | - 100 | - 134 | - 48 | [2] Domestic LU Data | Product | Initial Value (2025/09/18) | Final Value (2025/09/24) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3385 | 3367 | 42 | | LU 05 | 3368 | 3347 | 45 | | LU 09 | 3322 | 3319 | 33 | | LU 01 - 05 | 17 | 20 | - 3 | | LU 05 - 09 | 46 | 28 | 12 | | LU 09 - 01 | - 63 | - 48 | - 9 | [3]
燃料油早报-20250901
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 04:15
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst fluctuated strongly, the near - month spread strengthened slightly, the basis rebounded, and the EW spread continued to rebound. Affected by the impact of US sanctions on the delivery warehouse, FU10 rose sharply and then fell. The low - sulfur cracking weakened, the spread fluctuated, the LU internal - external spread fluctuated at $10, and the MF0.5 basis began to rebound [3][4]. - Fundamentally, the residue inventory in Singapore increased, the floating storage decreased, the residue inventory in ARA remained flat, the floating storage inventory increased significantly, and the EIA residue began to accumulate. The global supply - demand of high - sulfur fuel oil weakened. Due to the reshaping of logistics, the demand for high - sulfur marine fuel in Singapore provided support, the EW spread was still being repaired, and the domestic high - sulfur spot was still in excess. Be vigilant against over - heating sentiment [4]. - The new round of sanctions has a relatively large potential impact on the domestic heavy crude oil supply, which provides a certain support for the Asian fuel oil valuation. This week, LU maintained a volatile trend, and the MF0.5 basis of the external market began to rebound. The opportunity for the spread between low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil to widen in the fourth quarter can be concerned [4]. 3. Key Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil | Type | 2025/08/25 | 2025/08/29 | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 394.08 | 389.06 | - 3.68 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 461.01 | 456.37 | - 1.46 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 6.05 | - 6.14 | - 0.28 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 667.32 | 654.16 | - 1.73 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 206.31 | - 197.79 | 0.27 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 23.15 | 22.15 | - 0.70 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 66.93 | 67.31 | 2.22 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap | Type | 2025/08/25 | 2025/08/29 | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 399.93 | 401.16 | 5.62 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 412.49 | 416.16 | 8.12 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 488.53 | 485.77 | - 1.59 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 86.39 | 85.94 | - 0.66 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 4.41 | - 4.48 | - 0.19 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 150.76 | - 150.19 | 6.48 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot | Type | 2025/08/25 | 2025/08/29 | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | FOB 380cst | 397.15 | 399.85 | 7.01 | | FOB VLSFO | 488.41 | 488.05 | - 3.15 | | 380 Basis | - 2.55 | - 1.10 | 0.15 | | High - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 4.5 | 2.4 | - 1.2 | | Low - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 10.6 | 8.0 | - 1.3 | [2] Domestic FU | Type | 2025/08/25 | 2025/08/29 | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | FU 01 | 2831 | 2812 | - 19 | | FU 05 | 2790 | 2773 | - 23 | | FU 09 | 2845 | 2735 | - 25 | | FU 01 - 05 | 41 | 39 | - 4 | | FU 05 - 09 | - 55 | 38 | 48 | | FU 09 - 01 | 14 | - 77 | - 44 | [2] Domestic LU | Type | 2025/08/25 | 2025/08/29 | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | LU 01 | 3491 | 3479 | - 18 | | LU 05 | 3449 | 3435 | - 24 | | LU 09 | 3403 | 3312 | - 98 | | LU 01 - 05 | 42 | 44 | 6 | | LU 05 - 09 | 46 | 123 | 122 | | LU 09 - 01 | - 88 | - 167 | - 116 | [3]
燃料油早报-20250822
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 01:17
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No content provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst rebounded and then weakened, the near - month spread oscillated, and the EW spread oscillated. The 9 - 10 spread weakened to $3.5/ton, the basis oscillated at a low level (-$4), and the FU01 internal - external spread slightly weakened to -$0.8. The 0.5 cracking of Singapore oscillated and weakened, the 9 - 10 spread weakened to $2.75/ton, and the LU11 internal - external spread oscillated at $9. [4][5] - Singapore's land inventory decreased this week, but it was still not the highest in the same period of history. The floating storage decreased significantly month - on - month, Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased significantly, the arrivals oscillated this week, the shipments from the UAE rebounded month - on - month, and the net exports increased significantly. The land inventory in Fujairah, the Middle East, decreased, the floating storage inventory of high - sulfur and low - sulfur increased significantly, the ARA residue inventory increased, and the US residue inventory decreased, with a large inventory contradiction. [5] - The east - west divergence of high - sulfur continued. In the heavy - oil pattern, the cracking of Singapore 380cst was the weakest, and the premium of heavy - crude oil was the strongest. It is expected to return in both directions later. This week, LU remained weak, the basis of the external MF0.5 weakened again and then oscillated, the LU quota was issued, and the internal - external spread oscillated. [5] - In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity of the high - sulfur 380 EW spread widening. Fundamentally, the expected supply of high - sulfur will increase, and the supply - demand pattern will weaken. [5] 3. Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data | Type | 2025/08/15 | 2025/08/18 | 2025/08/19 | 2025/08/20 | 2025/08/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 390.27 | 385.76 | 383.41 | 386.27 | 386.40 | 0.13 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 452.69 | 446.79 | 445.77 | 447.87 | 452.12 | 4.25 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 4.33 | - 4.74 | - 5.18 | - 5.40 | - 6.25 | - 0.85 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 635.32 | 624.64 | 637.68 | 647.20 | 657.30 | 10.10 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 182.63 | - 177.85 | - 191.91 | - 199.33 | - 205.18 | - 5.85 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 21.97 | 19.81 | 22.26 | 22.39 | 22.97 | 0.58 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 62.42 | 61.03 | 62.36 | 61.60 | 65.72 | 4.12 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Data | Type | 2025/08/15 | 2025/08/18 | 2025/08/19 | 2025/08/20 | 2025/08/21 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 390.95 | 391.35 | 386.44 | 388.83 | 392.45 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 403.51 | 403.47 | 401.16 | 402.12 | 401.16 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 476.79 | 476.24 | 474.78 | 475.48 | 480.02 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 82.76 | 82.50 | 83.18 | 84.72 | 86.11 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 4.09 | - 3.57 | - 4.67 | - 4.63 | - 5.30 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 135.63 | - 134.26 | - 140.75 | - 151.45 | - 157.19 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/08/15 | 2025/08/18 | 2025/08/19 | 2025/08/20 | 2025/08/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 387.36 | 387.68 | 383.23 | 386.10 | 388.12 | 2.02 | | FOB VLSFO | 477.51 | 475.97 | 474.41 | 474.94 | 478.38 | 3.44 | | 380 Basis | - 3.40 | - 2.90 | - 3.25 | - 2.65 | - 1.15 | 1.50 | | High - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 2.5 | 0.1 | - 3.3 | - 1.8 | - 3.5 | - 1.7 | | Low - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 8.2 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 6.9 | - 2.0 | [3] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/08/15 | 2025/08/18 | 2025/08/19 | 2025/08/20 | 2025/08/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2746 | 2739 | 2713 | 2719 | 2736 | 17 | | FU 05 | 2741 | 2735 | 2713 | 2712 | 2731 | 19 | | FU 09 | 2691 | 2713 | 2686 | 2687 | 2698 | 11 | | FU 01 - 05 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 5 | - 2 | | FU 05 - 09 | 50 | 22 | 27 | 25 | 33 | 8 | | FU 09 - 01 | - 55 | - 26 | - 27 | - 32 | - 38 | - 6 | [3] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/08/15 | 2025/08/18 | 2025/08/19 | 2025/08/20 | 2025/08/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3420 | 3426 | 3417 | 3411 | 3443 | 32 | | LU 05 | 3395 | 3391 | 3390 | 3376 | 3413 | 37 | | LU 09 | 3423 | 3477 | 3452 | 3422 | 3456 | 34 | | LU 01 - 05 | 25 | 35 | 27 | 35 | 30 | - 5 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 28 | - 86 | - 62 | - 46 | - 43 | 3 | | LU 09 - 01 | 3 | 51 | 35 | 11 | 13 | 2 | [4]