| 燃料油早报 | | --- | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/08/25 | | --- | 国 内 L U | 日期 | LU 01 | LU 05 | LU 09 | LU 01-05 | LU 05-09 | LU 09-01 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/08/18 | 3426 | 3391 | 3477 | 35 | -86 | 51 | | 2025/08/19 | 3417 | 3390 | 3452 | 27 | -62 | 35 | | 2025/08/20 | 3411 | 3376 | 3422 | 35 | -46 | 11 | | 2025/08/21 | 3443 | 3413 | 3456 | 30 | -43 | 13 | | 2025/08/22 | 3462 | 3384 | 3468 | 78 | -84 | 6 | | 变化 | 19 | -29 | 12 | 48 | -41 | -7 | | | | | 结论观点： 本周新加坡380cst高硫裂解走弱，近月月差走弱（9-10 0.75 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst rebounded and then weakened, the near - month spread oscillated, and the EW spread oscillated. The 9 - 10 spread weakened to $3.5/ton, the basis oscillated at a low level (-$4), and the FU01 internal - external spread weakened slightly to -$0.8 [4]. - The 0.5 cracking of Singapore oscillated and weakened, the 9 - 10 spread weakened to $2.75/ton, and the LU11 internal - external spread oscillated at $9 [4]. - This week, Singapore's on - land inventory decreased, but it was still not the highest in the same period of history. The floating storage decreased significantly month - on - month, Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased significantly, this week's arrivals oscillated, the UAE's shipments rebounded month - on - month, and net exports increased significantly [5]. - The on - land inventory in Fujairah, the Middle East, decreased, the floating storage inventory of high - sulfur and low - sulfur increased significantly, the ARA residue inventory increased, and the US residue inventory decreased, with significant inventory contradictions [5]. - The east - west divergence of high - sulfur continued. In the heavy - quality pattern, the cracking of Singapore 380cst was the weakest, and the premium of heavy - quality crude oil was the strongest. It is expected to return in both directions later [5]. - This week, LU remained weak, the basis of the external MF0.5 weakened again and then oscillated, the LU quota was issued, and the internal - external spread oscillated. In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity of the high - sulfur 380 EW spread widening. Fundamentally, the supply of high - sulfur is expected to increase, and the supply - demand pattern will weaken [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil - From August 13th to 19th, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by $3.30, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 decreased by $2.86, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 decreased by $0.31, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 increased by $13.13, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased by $15.99, LGO - Brent M1 increased by $2.45, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 increased by $0.44 [2]. Singapore Fuel Oil - **Swap Prices**: From August 13th to 19th, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased by $4.28, Singapore 180cst M1 decreased by $2.45, Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased by $3.20, Singapore Gasoil M1 increased by $1.56, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 decreased by $0.75, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased by $14.74 [2][10]. - **Spot Prices**: From August 13th to 19th, 2025, the FOB 380cst price decreased by $4.45, the FOB VLSFO price decreased by $1.56, the 380 basis decreased by $0.35, the high - sulfur internal - external spread decreased by $3.4, and the low - sulfur internal - external spread remained unchanged [3]. Domestic FU - From August 13th to 19th, 2025, FU 01 decreased by 26, FU 05 decreased by 22, FU 09 decreased by 27, FU 01 - 05 decreased by 4, FU 05 - 09 increased by 5, and FU 09 - 01 decreased by 1 [3]. Domestic LU - From August 13th to 19th, 2025, LU 01 decreased by 9, LU 05 decreased by 1, LU 09 decreased by 25, LU 01 - 05 decreased by 8, LU 05 - 09 increased by 24, and LU 09 - 01 decreased by 16 [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst rebounded and then weakened, the near - month spread fluctuated, and the EW spread fluctuated. The 9 - 10 spread weakened to $3.5/ton, the basis oscillated at a low level (-$4), and the internal - external spread of FU01 slightly weakened to -$0.8. The 0.5 cracking of Singapore oscillated and weakened, the 9 - 10 spread weakened to $2.75/ton, and the internal - external spread of LU11 oscillated at $9 [3][4]. - This week, Singapore's on - shore inventory decreased, but the inventory was still not the highest in the same historical period. The floating storage decreased significantly month - on - month. Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased significantly, the arrivals oscillated this week, the shipments from the UAE rebounded month - on - month, and the net exports increased significantly. The on - shore inventory in Fujairah, the Middle East decreased, the floating storage of high - sulfur and low - sulfur increased significantly, the residue inventory in ARA increased, and the residue inventory in the US decreased, showing a large inventory contradiction [4]. - The east - west divergence of high - sulfur fuel oil continued. In the heavy - oil pattern, the cracking of Singapore 380cst was the weakest, and the premium of heavy crude oil was the strongest. A two - way regression is expected in the future. This week, LU remained weak, the basis of the external MF0.5 weakened again and then oscillated. The LU quota was issued, and the internal - external spread oscillated. In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity of the widening of the high - sulfur 380 EW spread. Fundamentally, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase, and the supply - demand pattern will weaken [4]. Group 3: Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil | Type | 2025/08/12 | 2025/08/13 | 2025/08/14 | 2025/08/15 | 2025/08/18 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 396.94 | 389.64 | 394.21 | 390.27 | 388.24 | -2.03 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 452.82 | 448.06 | 453.27 | 452.69 | 450.47 | -2.22 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -3.23 | -3.58 | -3.95 | -4.33 | -4.85 | -0.52 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 638.66 | 628.39 | 631.89 | 635.32 | 624.89 | -10.43 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -185.84 | -180.33 | -178.62 | -182.63 | -174.42 | 8.21 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 22.10 | 21.18 | 20.51 | 21.97 | 19.81 | -2.16 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 55.88 | 58.42 | 59.06 | 62.42 | 62.23 | -0.19 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil | Type | 2025/08/12 | 2025/08/13 | 2025/08/14 | 2025/08/15 | 2025/08/18 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 401.22 | 394.38 | 391.90 | 390.95 | 390.54 | - | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 411.88 | 405.63 | 403.65 | 403.51 | 401.94 | - | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 484.51 | 476.53 | 476.59 | 476.79 | 479.27 | - | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 85.26 | 83.31 | 83.35 | 82.76 | 82.47 | - | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -3.02 | -3.07 | -3.49 | -4.09 | -4.49 | - | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -146.41 | -139.96 | -140.20 | -135.63 | -131.01 | - | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot | Type | 2025/08/12 | 2025/08/13 | 2025/08/14 | 2025/08/15 | 2025/08/18 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 396.64 | 388.41 | 387.09 | 387.36 | 387.68 | 0.32 | | FOB VLSFO | 483.55 | 475.21 | 476.12 | 477.51 | 475.97 | -1.54 | | 380 Basis | -3.95 | -4.05 | -3.95 | -3.40 | -2.90 | 0.50 | | High - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 1.5 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 0.1 | -2.4 | | Low - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 8.8 | 9.4 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 0.5 | [2] Domestic FU | Type | 2025/08/12 | 2025/08/13 | 2025/08/14 | 2025/08/15 | 2025/08/18 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2800 | 2772 | 2750 | 2746 | 2739 | -7 | | FU 05 | 2770 | 2751 | 2736 | 2741 | 2735 | -6 | | FU 09 | 2770 | 2730 | 2700 | 2691 | 2713 | 22 | | FU 01 - 05 | 30 | 21 | 14 | 5 | 4 | -1 | | FU 05 - 09 | 0 | 21 | 36 | 50 | 22 | -28 | | FU 09 - 01 | -30 | -42 | -50 | -55 | -26 | 29 | [2] Domestic LU | Type | 2025/08/12 | 2025/08/13 | 2025/08/14 | 2025/08/15 | 2025/08/18 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3457 | 3430 | 3417 | 3420 | 3426 | 6 | | LU 05 | 3417 | 3394 | 3390 | 3395 | 3391 | -4 | | LU 09 | 3489 | 3442 | 3429 | 3423 | 3477 | 54 | | LU 01 - 05 | 40 | 36 | 27 | 25 | 35 | 10 | | LU 05 - 09 | -72 | -48 | -39 | -28 | -86 | -58 | | LU 09 - 01 | 32 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 51 | 48 | [3]

| | | | | 燃料油早报 | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/08/18 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/08/11 | 401.32 | 454.60 | -2.85 | 644.43 | -189.83 | 22.30 | 53.28 | | 2025/08/12 | 396.94 | 452.82 | -3.23 | 638.66 | -185.84 | 22.10 | 55.88 | | 2025/08/13 | 389.64 | 448.06 | -3.58 | 628.39 | -180.33 | 21.18 | 58.42 | | ...

弱，9-10小幅反弹至3.75美金/吨，LU11内外价差8美金上下震荡。本周新加坡陆上大幅累库， 库存历史同期最高，浮仓环比累库，沙特发货历史同期高位，本周到岸反弹，阿联酋发货环比 大幅反弹，净出口大幅增加。高硫东西方劈叉持续，目前价差引发物流变化，重质格局中新加 坡380cst裂解最弱，重质原油升贴水最强，预计后续双向回归。本周LU走弱兑现，外盘MF0.5 现货小幅走弱，估值兑现，关注后续LU配额放发。关注高硫380 EW走扩机会，LU短期空配离 场。 免责声明: | | | | | 燃料油早报 | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/08/14 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SF ...

| 燃料油早报 | | --- | 研究中心能化团队 2025/08/12 免责声明: 新 加 坡 燃 料 油 现 货 | 日期 | FOB 380cst | FOB VLSFO | 380基差 | 高硫内外价差 | 低硫内外价差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/08/05 | 407.94 | 499.20 | -3.70 | 0.5 | 8.7 | | 2025/08/06 | 406.83 | 495.11 | -5.05 | 1.3 | 8.5 | | 2025/08/07 | 402.93 | 488.15 | -5.35 | 2.6 | 9.9 | | 2025/08/08 | 403.56 | 487.97 | -4.75 | 2.5 | 8.2 | | 2025/08/11 | 391.73 | 481.67 | -4.80 | 2.6 | 8.8 | | 变化 | -11.83 | -6.30 | -0.05 | 0.1 | 0.6 | | 国 内 F U | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the cracking spread of Singapore 380cst high - sulfur fuel oil rebounded, the near - month spread rebounded, and the EW spread continued to rebound. The 9 - 10 spread rebounded to $5.5/ton, the basis oscillated at a low level (-$5), and the FU01 internal - external spread strengthened slightly to $2.5. The cracking spread of Singapore 0.5% low - sulfur fuel oil continued to weaken, the 9 - 10 spread rebounded slightly to $3.75/ton, and the LU11 internal - external spread oscillated around $8. [5][6] - This week, Singapore's on - shore inventory increased significantly, reaching the highest level in the same period of history. Floating storage increased month - on - month. Saudi Arabia's shipments were at a historical high for the same period, and arrivals rebounded this week. UAE's shipments rebounded significantly month - on - month, and net exports increased substantially. [6] - The divergence between the East and West of high - sulfur fuel oil continued. The current price difference has triggered logistics changes. In the heavy - oil pattern, the cracking spread of Singapore 380cst is the weakest, and the premium of heavy crude oil is the strongest. It is expected to converge in both directions later. [6] - This week, LU's weakness was realized, the spot price of the external MF0.5 decreased slightly, and the valuation was realized. Attention should be paid to the subsequent release of LU quotas. Pay attention to the opportunity of the high - sulfur 380 EW spread to widen, and short - term short positions in LU should exit. [6] Group 3: Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data | Type | Change from 2025/08/04 - 2025/08/08 | | ---- | ---- | | 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | -$1.52 | | 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | +$0.76 | | HSFO - Brent M1 | -$0.29 | | 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | +$6.27 | | VLSFO - G M1 | -$5.51 | | LGO - Brent M1 | $0.00 | | VLSFO - HSFO M1 | +$2.28 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Data Swap Data | Type | Change from 2025/08/04 - 2025/08/08 | | ---- | ---- | | 380cst M1 | -$3.06 | | 180cst M1 | -$1.55 | | VLSFO M1 | -$1.64 | | GO M1 | +$1.06 | | 380cst - Brent M1 | -$0.17 | | VLSFO - GO M1 | -$9.49 | [3] Spot Data | Type | Change from 2025/08/04 - 2025/08/08 | | ---- | ---- | | FOB 380cst | - | | FOB VLSFO | - | | 380 Basis | - | | High - sulfur Internal - External Spread | -$0.1 | | Low - sulfur Internal - External Spread | -$1.7 | [4] Domestic FU Data | Type | Change from 2025/08/04 - 2025/08/08 | | ---- | ---- | | FU 01 | -41 | | FU 05 | -42 | | FU 09 | -60 | | FU 01 - 05 | +1 | | FU 05 - 09 | +18 | | FU 09 - 01 | -19 | [4] Domestic LU Data | Type | Change from 2025/08/04 - 2025/08/08 | | ---- | ---- | | LU 01 | -45 | | LU 05 | -34 | | LU 09 | -78 | | LU 01 - 05 | -11 | | LU 05 - 09 | +44 | | LU 09 - 01 | -33 | [5]

| | | 燃料油早报 月差走弱，8-9月4.5美金上下震荡。LU内外小幅走弱后震荡，09在16美金上下震荡。本周新加 坡陆上大幅累库，窗口受到交货压力，近月承压，沙特发货环比增加。近期伊朗及伊拉克燃料 油出口仍在高位，埃及净进口再创新高，高硫供需仍处于旺季，但东西方、内外价差已经快速 回落，外盘低硫估值偏高LU内外高位运行，关注国内产量情况。新加坡Hi-5价差来到年内高 位，380cst、VLSFO均有所走弱，国内FU内外小幅反弹，LU估值偏高，可关注FU-LU短期估值 回归机会，风险在于外盘380cst持续走弱。 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但我司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。我们提供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，您应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担 期货交易后果，凡据此入市者，我司不承担任何责任。我司在为您提供服务时已最大程度避免与您产生利益冲突。未经我司授权，不得随意 ...

| | | 燃料油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/22 | 2025/07/15 | 404.43 | 414.93 | 496.15 | 87.86 | -4.13 | -154.01 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/07/16 | 405.67 | 417.60 | 494.41 | 88.17 | -3.75 | -158.05 | | 2025/07/17 | 404.37 | 417.12 | 492.44 | 88.46 | -3.68 | -162.16 | | 2025/07/18 | 411.39 | 423.64 | 497.30 | 91.55 | -3.80 | -180.17 | | 2025/07/21 | 411.16 | 425.21 | 493.65 | 90.15 | -3.42 | -173.46 | | 变化 | -0.23 | 1.57 | -3.65 | -1.40 | 0.38 | 6.71 | 新 加 坡 燃 料 油 现 货 | 日期 | FOB 380cst | FOB VLSF ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated downward, the near - month spread declined, and the EW continued to weaken. The 380 8 - 9 month spread weakened to $1.75, the basis weakened and then fluctuated, the FU09 domestic - foreign spread rebounded slightly, the domestic delivery volume was large, and the supply remained loose. The Singapore 0.5 crack spread declined slightly, the month spread weakened, and the 8 - 9 month spread fluctuated around $4.5. The LU domestic - foreign spread weakened slightly and then fluctuated, with LU09 fluctuating around $16. [4][5] - This week, Singapore's on - land inventory increased significantly. Due to delivery pressure on the window, the near - month contract was under pressure, and Saudi Arabia's shipments increased month - on - month. Recently, fuel oil exports from Iran and Iraq remained at a high level, Egypt's net imports reached a new high. Although the high - sulfur supply and demand are in the peak season, the East - West and domestic - foreign spreads have dropped rapidly. The foreign low - sulfur valuation is high, and the LU domestic - foreign spread is running at a high level. Attention should be paid to the domestic production situation. [5] - Singapore's Hi - 5 spread reached a new high this year, both 380cst and VLSFO weakened. The domestic FU domestic - foreign spread rebounded slightly, and the LU valuation is high. Attention can be paid to the short - term valuation regression opportunity of FU - LU, with the risk being the continuous weakening of the foreign 380cst. [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From July 11 to July 17, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 changed by $4.57, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 changed by $3.93, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 changed by - $0.25, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 changed by $18.74, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed by - $14.81, LGO - Brent M1 changed by $1.35, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 changed by - $0.64. [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From July 11 to July 17, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 changed by - $1.30, Singapore 180cst M1 changed by - $0.48, Singapore VLSFO M1 changed by - $1.97, Singapore GO M1 changed by $0.29, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 changed by $0.07, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed by - $4.11. [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From July 11 to July 17, 2025, the FOB 380cst price changed by - $2.82, FOB VLSFO changed by $1.27, the 380 basis changed by - $0.79, the high - sulfur domestic - foreign spread changed by - $0.4, and the low - sulfur domestic - foreign spread changed by - $0.5. [3] Domestic FU Data - From July 11 to July 17, 2025, FU 01 changed by - 5, FU 05 changed by - 10, FU 09 changed by - 17, FU 01 - 05 changed by 5, FU 05 - 09 changed by 7, and FU 09 - 01 changed by - 12. [3] Domestic LU Data - From July 11 to July 17, 2025, LU 01 changed by - 38, LU 05 changed by - 21, LU 09 changed by - 50, LU 01 - 05 changed by - 17, LU 05 - 09 changed by 29, and LU 09 - 01 changed by - 12. [4]