Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the near - month of Singapore 380cst strengthened significantly, with both cracking and monthly spreads strengthening. Short - term arbitrage logistics tightened to a 6 - month low, and Singapore residue oil inventory dropped significantly to a 13 - week low. The 0.5 low - sulfur cracking strengthened on Friday compared to the previous week, at a historically low level year - on - year, and the monthly spread was at a low level for the same period in history. In terms of inventory, EIA residue oil had a slight de - stocking, ARA residue oil had inventory accumulation, and Fujairah had a slight inventory accumulation. Under the new situation in Venezuela, heavy - oil logistics are tilted towards the United States, Canadian heavy oil is seeking new buyers, the price of Merey crude oil has risen, and trading is light. Recently, the Iranian situation and arbitrage logistics have affected 380, the high - sulfur spot has tightened, the cracking has rebounded, and in the short term, high - sulfur has the strongest driving force among oil products, while the low - sulfur external market remains weak [3][4] Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - The prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, 0.5% VLS FO swap M1, 10ppm Gasoil swap M1, etc. from January 23 to January 29, 2026, are presented, with price changes of 13.39, 12.57, 23.95 respectively during this period [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Data - The prices of Singapore 380cst M1, 180cst M1, VLSFO M1, GO M1, etc. from January 23 to January 29, 2026, are shown, with price changes of 21.91, 14.11, 16.24 respectively during this period [1] - The FOB prices of Singapore 380cst and VLSFO, 380 basis, high - sulfur internal - external price difference, and low - sulfur internal - external price difference from January 23 to January 29, 2026, are provided, with changes of 14.86, 10.09, 1.25, 8.1, 3.2 respectively during this period [2] Domestic FU Data - The prices of domestic FU 01, FU 05, FU 09, and their spreads from January 23 to January 29, 2026, are given, with price changes of 66, 80, 74 respectively during this period [2] Domestic LU Data - The prices of domestic LU 01, LU 05, LU 09, and their spreads from January 23 to January 29, 2026, are presented, with price changes of 50, 79, 63 respectively during this period [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the near - month of Singapore 380cst strengthened significantly, with both cracking and contango strengthening. Short - term arbitrage logistics tightened to a 6 - month low, and Singapore residue inventory dropped significantly to a 13 - week low. The 0.5 low - sulfur cracking strengthened on Friday compared to the previous week, at a historically low level year - on - year, and the contango was also at a low level for the same period in history. In terms of inventory, EIA residue had a slight de - stocking, ARA residue had inventory accumulation, and Fujairah had a slight inventory accumulation. Under the new situation in Venezuela, heavy - oil logistics are tilted towards the United States, Canadian heavy oil is seeking new buyers, the quotation of Merey crude oil has risen but the trading volume is light. Recently, the Iranian situation and arbitrage logistics have affected 380, the high - sulfur spot market has tightened, and the cracking has rebounded. In the short term, high - sulfur has the strongest driving force among oil products, while the low - sulfur external market remains weak [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - The prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, 0.5% VLS FO swap M1, 10ppm Gasoil swap M1, etc. changed from January 22 to January 28. For example, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased by 12.00, and the price of 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased by 7.68 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Data - The prices of Singapore 380cst M1, 180cst M1, VLSFO M1, etc. changed from January 22 to January 28. For example, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased from 373.02 to 405.12. In the Singapore fuel oil spot market, the FOB 380cst price increased by 14.58, and the FOB VLSFO price increased by 8.38 from January 22 to January 28 [1][2] Domestic FU and LU Data - For domestic FU, from January 22 to January 28, the prices of FU 01, FU 05, and FU 09 increased by 56, 81, and 69 respectively. For domestic LU, from January 22 to January 28, the prices of LU 01, LU 05, and LU 09 all increased by 70 [2][3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the cracking of Singapore 380 strengthened, and the monthly spread rebounded significantly. The high - sulfur cracking in Europe rebounded, and the monthly spread also rebounded significantly. The high - sulfur EW oscillated at a high level. The cracking of Singapore 0.5% was at a historical low for the same period, rebounded month - on - month, the monthly spread strengthened slightly, and the basis oscillated at a low level [3][4]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual oil had a slight inventory build - up, with the inventory at a historical high year - on - year. ARA's residual oil had a slight inventory drawdown, and Fujairah's residual oil had an inventory build - up [4]. - This week, the situation in Iran affected the global heavy oil valuation. In the short term, the driving force of high - sulfur fuel oil was stronger than that of low - sulfur fuel oil. The high - sulfur spot market tightened, the cracking rebounded, and the short - term downside space was limited. The external market of low - sulfur fuel oil remained weak [4]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2026/01/14 | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | 2026/01/19 | 2026/01/20 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 342.84 | 333.76 | 341.06 | 336.61 | 335.92 | -0.69 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 397.96 | 384.56 | 389.58 | 385.89 | 385.56 | -0.33 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -11.23 | -10.45 | -10.09 | -10.43 | -10.35 | 0.08 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 639.10 | 621.40 | 634.20 | 630.80 | 633.90 | 3.10 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -241.14 | -236.84 | -244.62 | -244.91 | -248.34 | -3.43 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 21.50 | 21.81 | 23.19 | 22.94 | 22.94 | 0.00 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 55.12 | 50.80 | 48.52 | 49.28 | 49.64 | 0.36 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2026/01/14 | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | 2026/01/19 | 2026/01/20 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 360.39 | 359.16 | 356.84 | 359.12 | 357.08 | -2.04 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 366.14 | 363.46 | 363.27 | 364.49 | 364.98 | 0.49 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 428.26 | 426.98 | 426.45 | 427.95 | 426.15 | -1.80 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 82.45 | 81.65 | 81.51 | 82.07 | 82.61 | 0.54 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -7.37 | -7.10 | -6.79 | -6.30 | -6.58 | -0.28 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -181.87 | -177.23 | -176.72 | -179.37 | -185.16 | -5.79 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2026/01/14 | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | 2026/01/19 | 2026/01/20 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 358.10 | 358.88 | 358.34 | 359.26 | - | - | | FOB VLSFO | 431.74 | 429.02 | 429.37 | 431.00 | - | - | | 380 Basis | -1.50 | -1.45 | -1.65 | -1.45 | - | - | | High - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 13.0 | 13.9 | 13.7 | 12.6 | 10.8 | -1.8 | | Low - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 16.0 | 14.9 | 15.3 | 15.6 | 16.9 | 1.3 | [2] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2026/01/14 | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | 2026/01/19 | 2026/01/20 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2513 | 2510 | 2485 | 2478 | 2467 | -11 | | FU 05 | 2578 | 2566 | 2520 | 2526 | 2507 | -19 | | FU 09 | 2546 | 2533 | 2498 | 2500 | 2487 | -13 | | FU 01 - 05 | -65 | -56 | -35 | -48 | -40 | 8 | | FU 05 - 09 | 32 | 33 | 22 | 26 | 20 | -6 | | FU 09 - 01 | 33 | 23 | 13 | 22 | 20 | -2 | [2] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2026/01/14 | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | 2026/01/19 | 2026/01/20 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3159 | 3166 | 3088 | 3136 | 3120 | -16 | | LU 05 | 3087 | 3074 | 3041 | 3052 | 3066 | 14 | | LU 09 | 3112 | 3090 | 3056 | 3073 | 3085 | 12 | | LU 01 - 05 | 72 | 92 | 47 | 84 | 54 | -30 | | LU 05 - 09 | -25 | -16 | -15 | -21 | -19 | 2 | | LU 09 - 01 | -47 | -76 | -32 | -63 | -35 | 28 | [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Before the holiday, the 380 cracking spread fluctuated, and it weakened slightly after the holiday. The 380 monthly spread rebounded from the low point but remained weak year - on - year. The high - sulfur cracking spread in Europe weakened, and the monthly spread oscillated at a low level. The 0.5% cracking spread in Singapore oscillated at a historical low, with the structure turning to C at a historical low and the basis oscillating at a historical low [3]. - In terms of inventory, there was a significant build - up of residual fuel oil in Singapore, a significant drawdown of high - sulfur floating storage, a slight build - up of residual fuel oil in ARA, a drawdown of residual fuel oil in Fujairah, a drawdown of high - sulfur floating storage, and a slight build - up of residual fuel oil in EIA. The recent conflict escalation in Venezuela has a short - term positive and long - term negative impact on heavy crude oil. Attention should be paid to the duration of logistics interruption. The arrival premium of Merey crude oil at the end of December remained around - 12. The high - sulfur spot market remained loose, and attention should be paid to the boost brought by the premium of heavy raw materials. The low - sulfur market maintained a weak oscillation pattern [10]. 3. Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil - The prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1, LGO - Brent M1, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 from 2026/01/08 to 2026/01/14 showed different changes. For example, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by 1.20, while Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 increased by 0.42 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil - The prices of Singapore 380cst M1, Singapore 180cst M1, Singapore VLSFO M1, Singapore Gasoil M1, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed from 2026/01/08 to 2026/01/14. For instance, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased by 16.62 from 2026/01/13 to 2026/01/14 [1][9]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot - The FOB 380cst, FOB VLSFO, 380 basis, high - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference, and low - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference of Singapore fuel oil spot had changes from 2026/01/08 to 2026/01/14. The high - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference decreased by 0.4, and the low - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference increased by 0.2 [2]. Domestic FU - The prices of FU 01, FU 05, FU 09, FU 01 - 05, FU 05 - 09, and FU 09 - 01 in the domestic market changed from 2026/01/08 to 2026/01/14. For example, the price of FU 01 increased by 62 [2]. Domestic LU - The prices of LU 01, LU 05, LU 09, LU 01 - 05, LU 05 - 09, and LU 09 - 01 in the domestic market changed from 2026/01/08 to 2026/01/14. The price of LU 01 increased by 47 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Before the holiday, the 380 cracking spread fluctuated, and after the holiday, it weakened slightly. The 380 monthly spread rebounded from its low point but remained weak year-on-year. The high-sulfur cracking spread in Europe weakened, and the monthly spread oscillated at a low level. The 0.5% cracking spread in Singapore oscillated at a historical low, with the structure turning to C at a historical low and the basis oscillating at a historical low [3]. - In terms of inventory, there was a significant accumulation of residual oil in Singapore, a significant reduction in high-sulfur floating storage, a slight accumulation of residual oil in ARA, a reduction in residual oil in Fujairah, a reduction in high-sulfur floating storage, and a slight accumulation of residual oil in EIA. The conflict in Venezuela escalated over the weekend, having a short-term positive and long-term negative impact on heavy crude oil. Attention should be paid to the duration of logistics interruption. The arrival premium of Merey crude oil at the end of December remained around -12. The high-sulfur spot market remained loose. Attention should be paid to the boost brought by the premium and discount of heavy raw materials recently. The low-sulfur market maintained a weak oscillation pattern [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil - The prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1, LGO - Brent M1, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are presented. The changes during this period were -11.43, -7.17, -0.64, -10.95, 3.78, 0.00, and 4.26 respectively [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil - The prices of Singapore 380cst M1, Singapore 180cst M1, Singapore VLSFO M1, Singapore Gasoil M1, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are presented. The changes during this period were -1.18, -4.13, -3.16, -1.68, 0.79, and 9.27 respectively [1]. - The FOB prices of 380cst and VLSFO, 380 basis, high-sulfur domestic - foreign price difference, and low-sulfur domestic - foreign price difference in Singapore from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are presented. The changes during this period were 0.90, -5.39, 0.50, 0.2, and -1.4 respectively [2]. Domestic FU - The prices of FU 01, FU 05, FU 09, FU 01 - 05, FU 05 - 09, and FU 09 - 01 from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are presented. The changes during this period were -38, -46, -48, 8, 2, and -10 respectively [2]. Domestic LU - The prices of LU 01, LU 05, LU 09, LU 01 - 05, LU 05 - 09, and LU 09 - 01 from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are presented. The changes during this period were -52, -73, -53, 21, -20, and -1 respectively [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bearish on the fuel oil market [3][8] Core观点 - This week, the 380 cracking spread weakened, the month spread oscillated at a low level, the basis oscillated at a low level, the high - sulfur cracking spread in Europe weakened, and the high - sulfur EW continued to strengthen. The 0.5% cracking spread in Singapore oscillated at a low level, the month spread oscillated at a historical low level, and the 5GO recovered as diesel weakened. In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual oil inventory increased, the high - sulfur floating storage decreased, the residual oil inventory in Fujairah decreased, the high - sulfur floating storage decreased significantly, the high - sulfur floating storage in Europe decreased slightly, and the high - sulfur floating storage in the US increased slightly. The low - sulfur floating storage in Singapore decreased, and the low - sulfur floating storage in Europe increased. Global residual oil entered the off - season for inventory accumulation. The external market cracking spread should pay attention to crude oil fluctuations, and there is no improvement in the spot market. The low - sulfur valuation is low but there is no driving force [3][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From December 22 to 26, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by 5.21, the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 decreased by 4.19, the Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 increased by 0.21, the Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 decreased by 7.25, the Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1 increased by 3.06, and the Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 increased by 1.02 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From December 22 to 26, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased by 0.57, the price of Singapore 180cst M1 increased by 0.32, the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 increased by 1.22, the price of Singapore GO M1 decreased by 0.15, the Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased by 0.20, and the Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 increased by 2.33 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From December 22 to 26, 2025, the FOB 380cst price and FOB VLSFO price data have no clear overall change trend, the 380 basis decreased from - 2.80 to - 1.60, and the high - sulfur and low - sulfur internal and external price difference data are incomplete [2] Domestic FU Data - From December 22 to 26, 2025, FU 01 increased by 27, FU 05 increased by 3, FU 09 increased by 2, FU 01 - 05 increased by 24, FU 05 - 09 increased by 1, and FU 09 - 01 decreased by 25 [2] Domestic LU Data - From December 22 to 26, 2025, LU 01 increased by 141, LU 05 decreased by 2, LU 09 increased by 1, LU 01 - 05 increased by 143, LU 05 - 09 decreased by 3, and LU 09 - 01 decreased by 140 [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur cracking in Singapore oscillated, the monthly spread ran at a historical low, strengthened slightly on Friday, the basis weakened and then strengthened slightly on Friday. The HSFO cracking in Europe oscillated and weakened, and the EW oscillated. The 0.5% cracking in Singapore weakened, with the monthly spread and basis oscillating at low levels [3]. - In terms of inventory, there was a slight increase in Singapore residue, a slight decrease in high - sulfur floating storage, a slight increase in ARA residue, a significant increase in Fujairah residue, a decrease in high - sulfur floating storage, and a slight increase in EIA residue [3][4]. - With the strengthening expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, the cracking of gasoline and diesel in the external market continued to decline this week, and the price difference between low - sulfur and diesel continued to rebound [4]. - After the fire at the Al Zour refinery on October 21 and its subsequent shutdown, the external low - sulfur market faces support, but the short - term strengthening space is limited. The global heavy oil has entered the off - season for inventory accumulation. The external cracking is subject to crude oil fluctuations, and there is no improvement on the spot side. FU01 should be treated bearishly. The low - sulfur valuation is low but lacks a driving force [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fuel Oil Price Data - **Rotterdam**: From December 2 to December 8, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased from 348.23 to 349.63, with a change of 0.82; the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased from 390.52 to 393.57, with a change of 1.90; other price indicators also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Singapore**: The price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased from 349.17 to 351.64, with a change of 2.60; the price of Singapore 180cst M1 increased from 356.17 to 359.58, with a change of 3.79; other price indicators also changed [1]. - **Singapore Fuel Oil Spot**: From December 2 to December 8, 2025, the FOB 380cst price increased from 337.62 to 343.53, with a change of 2.71; the FOB VLSFO price increased from 423.98 to 425.03, with a change of 3.30; other indicators also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Domestic FU**: The price of FU 01 increased from 2469 to 2508, with a change of 53; the price of FU 05 increased from 2532 to 2573, with a change of 48; other price indicators also changed [2]. - **Domestic LU**: The price of LU 01 increased from 3030 to 3071, with a change of 53; the price of LU 05 increased from 3053 to 3091, with a change of 54; other price indicators also changed [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack in Singapore fluctuated, the monthly spread ran at a historical low, strengthened slightly on Friday, the basis weakened and then strengthened slightly on Friday. The European HSFO crack fluctuated weakly and the EW spread fluctuated. The 0.5% crack in Singapore weakened, the monthly spread and basis fluctuated at a low level. In terms of inventory, Singapore residue oil had a slight inventory build - up, high - sulfur floating storage had a slight inventory draw - down, ARA residue oil had a slight inventory build - up, Fujairah residue oil had a significant inventory build - up, high - sulfur floating storage had an inventory draw - down, and EIA residue oil had a slight inventory build - up. With the increasing expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel in the external market continued to fall this week, and the price difference between low - sulfur fuel oil and diesel continued to rebound. After the Al Zour refinery shut - down due to a fire on October 21st, the external low - sulfur fuel oil was supported, but the short - term upside space was limited. The global heavy - oil market entered the off - season with inventory build - up, the external crack spreads were affected by crude oil price fluctuations, and there was no improvement in the spot market. FU01 should be treated bearishly. The valuation of low - sulfur fuel oil was low, but there was no driving force [5][6]. Group 3: Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/12/01 | 2025/12/02 | 2025/12/03 | 2025/12/04 | 2025/12/05 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 | 352.55 | 348.23 | 348.42 | 347.85 | 348.81 | 0.96 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 | 394.14 | 390.52 | 390.01 | 388.30 | 391.67 | 3.37 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 7.12 | - 7.51 | - 7.90 | - 8.06 | - 8.45 | - 0.39 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 | 645.54 | 645.64 | 632.71 | 632.46 | 648.64 | 16.18 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 251.40 | - 255.12 | - 242.70 | - 244.16 | - 256.97 | - 12.81 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 25.52 | 26.31 | 24.34 | 23.85 | 25.44 | 1.59 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 41.59 | 42.29 | 41.59 | 40.45 | 42.86 | 2.41 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/12/01 | 2025/12/02 | 2025/12/03 | 2025/12/04 | 2025/12/05 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 350.01 | 349.17 | 345.72 | 343.12 | 349.04 | 5.92 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 358.26 | 356.17 | 350.42 | 350.87 | 355.79 | 4.92 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 425.66 | 424.47 | 419.63 | 418.98 | 421.83 | 2.85 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 85.73 | 84.91 | 83.93 | 83.91 | 84.31 | 0.40 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 7.95 | - 7.76 | - 7.87 | - 8.37 | - 7.76 | 0.61 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 208.74 | - 203.86 | - 201.45 | - 201.95 | - 202.06 | - 0.11 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/12/01 | 2025/12/02 | 2025/12/03 | 2025/12/04 | 2025/12/05 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 338.62 | 337.62 | 334.01 | 334.75 | - | - | | FOB VLSFO | 425.18 | 423.98 | 418.67 | 418.44 | - | - | | 380 basis | - 7.00 | - 8.10 | - 7.15 | - 5.70 | - | - | | High - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference | 6.1 | - 1.2 | - 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | - 0.3 | | Low - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference | 1.2 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 2.3 | [4] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/12/01 | 2025/12/02 | 2025/12/03 | 2025/12/04 | 2025/12/05 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2495 | 2469 | 2437 | 2442 | 2455 | 13 | | FU 05 | 2552 | 2532 | 2499 | 2505 | 2525 | 20 | | FU 09 | 2527 | 2504 | 2468 | 2476 | 2490 | 14 | | FU 01 - 05 | - 57 | - 63 | - 62 | - 63 | - 70 | - 7 | | FU 05 - 09 | 25 | 28 | 31 | 29 | 35 | 6 | | FU 09 - 01 | 32 | 35 | 31 | 34 | 35 | 1 | [4] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/12/01 | 2025/12/02 | 2025/12/03 | 2025/12/04 | 2025/12/05 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3049 | 3030 | 3010 | 3009 | 3018 | 9 | | LU 05 | 3068 | 3053 | 3021 | 3029 | 3037 | 8 | | LU 09 | 3095 | 3086 | 3060 | 3062 | 3062 | 0 | | LU 01 - 05 | - 19 | - 23 | - 11 | - 20 | - 19 | 1 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 27 | - 33 | - 39 | - 33 | - 25 | 8 | | LU 09 - 01 | 46 | 56 | 50 | 53 | 44 | - 9 | [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with short-term focus on observation [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with short-term focus on observation [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.2% at 2,467 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.2% at 3,023 yuan/ton. The crude oil price continued its weak and volatile trend, and the medium-term expectation of oversupply in the oil market was gradually being realized. If the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement is successfully reached, the geopolitical sentiment premium may further subside, which will have a certain suppressing effect on the unilateral price of fuel oil [1]. - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the current overall market contradictions are limited. The market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil weakened again after a slight repair, with the crack spread and monthly spread declining. The market supply is still relatively abundant, and the Azur refinery is expected to resume production soon. However, due to the relatively low valuation of low-sulfur oil compared to gasoline and diesel, the refinery's production willingness is limited, and it is expected that there will still be support at the lower end of the market [1]. - For high-sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread has recently weakened in a volatile manner. The lower support for the valuation mainly comes from the elastic demand at the refinery end. The development of the Russia-Ukraine situation will also affect Russia's fuel oil production and trade flows. According to the latest news, Ukraine has原则上 agreed to the peace agreement, and the US has reduced the 28 points of the plan to 22 points. In the future, attention should be paid to whether the agreement is reached and the changes in the sanctions policies of Europe and the US against Russia. At present, as some refineries have completed their maintenance, Russia's recent fuel oil exports show signs of recovery. According to shipping data, Russia's high-sulfur fuel oil shipments in November are expected to be 2.52 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 570,000 tons compared to October [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.2% at 2,467 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.2% at 3,023 yuan/ton. The crude oil price continued its weak and volatile trend, and the medium-term expectation of oversupply in the oil market was gradually being realized. If the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement is successfully reached, the geopolitical sentiment premium may further subside, which will have a certain suppressing effect on the unilateral price of fuel oil [1]. - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the current overall market contradictions are limited. The market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil weakened again after a slight repair, with the crack spread and monthly spread declining. The market supply is still relatively abundant, and the Azur refinery is expected to resume production soon. However, due to the relatively low valuation of low-sulfur oil compared to gasoline and diesel, the refinery's production willingness is limited, and it is expected that there will still be support at the lower end of the market [1]. - For high-sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread has recently weakened in a volatile manner. The lower support for the valuation mainly comes from the elastic demand at the refinery end. The development of the Russia-Ukraine situation will also affect Russia's fuel oil production and trade flows. According to the latest news, Ukraine has原则上 agreed to the peace agreement, and the US has reduced the 28 points of the plan to 22 points. In the future, attention should be paid to whether the agreement is reached and the changes in the sanctions policies of Europe and the US against Russia. At present, as some refineries have completed their maintenance, Russia's recent fuel oil exports show signs of recovery. According to shipping data, Russia's high-sulfur fuel oil shipments in November are expected to be 2.52 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 570,000 tons compared to October [1]. Strategy - High-sulfur: Cautiously bearish, with short-term focus on observation [2] - Low-sulfur: Cautiously bearish, with short-term focus on observation [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur crack in Singapore oscillated, the monthly spread strengthened slightly, the basis weakened, the HSFO crack in Europe declined, and the EW strengthened. The 0.5% crack in Singapore rebounded, the monthly spread oscillated, and the basis oscillated at a low level. [3] - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residue oil had a slight de - stocking, ARA's residue oil had inventory accumulation, Fujeirah's residue oil had inventory accumulation, and EIA's residue oil inventory remained flat. [3] - The spread between high - and low - sulfur in the outer market rebounded. Singapore's high - sulfur was supported by EW and refinery purchases, but the spot basis weakened rapidly. It is in a short - term oscillating pattern, and the short - term downward space for low - sulfur is limited. [3][4] 3) Summary by Relevant Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | 2025/11/10 - 2025/11/14 Change | | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | +4.64 [1] | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | +8.27 [1] | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 0.45 [1] | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | +22.41 [1] | | Rotterdam VLSFO - G O M1 | - 14.14 [1] | | LGO - Brent M1 | +1.34 [1] | | Rotterdam VLSFO - H SFO M1 | +3.63 [1] | Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | 2025/11/10 - 2025/11/14 Change | | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | +4.77 [1] | | Singapore 180cst M1 | +5.78 [1] | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | +6.41 [1] | | Singapore GO M1 | +0.69 [1] | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 0.24 [1] | | Singapore VLSFO - G O M1 | +1.30 [1] | Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Product | 2025/11/10 - 2025/11/14 Change | | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | +5.06 [2] | | FOB VLSFO | +6.84 [2] | | 380 Basis | +0.03 [2] | | High - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | +1.8 [2] | | Low - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | +1.6 [2] | Domestic FU Data | Product | 2025/11/10 - 2025/11/14 Change | | --- | --- | | FU 01 | +27 [2] | | FU 05 | +28 [2] | | FU 09 | +25 [2] | | FU 01 - 05 | - 1 [2] | | FU 05 - 09 | +3 [2] | | FU 09 - 01 | - 2 [2] | Domestic LU Data | Product | 2025/11/10 - 2025/11/14 Change | | --- | --- | | LU 01 | +76 [3] | | LU 05 | +53 [3] | | LU 09 | +46 [3] | | LU 01 - 05 | +23 [3] | | LU 05 - 09 | +7 [3] | | LU 09 - 01 | - 30 [3] |