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燃料油早报-20251209
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-09 01:46
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur cracking in Singapore oscillated, the monthly spread ran at a historical low, strengthened slightly on Friday, the basis weakened and then strengthened slightly on Friday. The HSFO cracking in Europe oscillated and weakened, and the EW oscillated. The 0.5% cracking in Singapore weakened, with the monthly spread and basis oscillating at low levels [3]. - In terms of inventory, there was a slight increase in Singapore residue, a slight decrease in high - sulfur floating storage, a slight increase in ARA residue, a significant increase in Fujairah residue, a decrease in high - sulfur floating storage, and a slight increase in EIA residue [3][4]. - With the strengthening expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, the cracking of gasoline and diesel in the external market continued to decline this week, and the price difference between low - sulfur and diesel continued to rebound [4]. - After the fire at the Al Zour refinery on October 21 and its subsequent shutdown, the external low - sulfur market faces support, but the short - term strengthening space is limited. The global heavy oil has entered the off - season for inventory accumulation. The external cracking is subject to crude oil fluctuations, and there is no improvement on the spot side. FU01 should be treated bearishly. The low - sulfur valuation is low but lacks a driving force [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fuel Oil Price Data - **Rotterdam**: From December 2 to December 8, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased from 348.23 to 349.63, with a change of 0.82; the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased from 390.52 to 393.57, with a change of 1.90; other price indicators also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Singapore**: The price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased from 349.17 to 351.64, with a change of 2.60; the price of Singapore 180cst M1 increased from 356.17 to 359.58, with a change of 3.79; other price indicators also changed [1]. - **Singapore Fuel Oil Spot**: From December 2 to December 8, 2025, the FOB 380cst price increased from 337.62 to 343.53, with a change of 2.71; the FOB VLSFO price increased from 423.98 to 425.03, with a change of 3.30; other indicators also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Domestic FU**: The price of FU 01 increased from 2469 to 2508, with a change of 53; the price of FU 05 increased from 2532 to 2573, with a change of 48; other price indicators also changed [2]. - **Domestic LU**: The price of LU 01 increased from 3030 to 3071, with a change of 53; the price of LU 05 increased from 3053 to 3091, with a change of 54; other price indicators also changed [3]
燃料油早报-20250902
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 04:16
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst oscillated strongly, the near - month spread strengthened slightly, the basis rebounded, and the EW spread continued to rebound. Affected by the impact of US sanctions on delivery warehouses, FU10 soared and then declined. The low - sulfur cracking weakened, the spread oscillated, the LU internal - external spread fluctuated around 10 US dollars, and the MF0.5 basis began to rebound [4]. - Fundamentally, Singapore's residue inventory increased, floating storage decreased, ARA's residue inventory remained flat, floating storage inventory increased significantly, and EIA's residue began to accumulate. The global supply - demand of high - sulfur fuel oil weakened. Due to the reshaping of logistics, the demand for high - sulfur marine fuel in Singapore provided support, the EW spread was still being repaired, and the domestic high - sulfur spot was still in excess. Be vigilant against over - heating sentiment. The new round of sanctions has a large potential impact on the supply of heavy crude oil in China, providing some support for the valuation of Asian fuel oil. This week, LU maintained an oscillation, the external MF0.5 basis began to rebound, and the opportunity for the low - sulfur to high - sulfur spread to widen in the fourth quarter can be noted [5]. 3. Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/08/26 | 2025/09/01 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 383.86 | 388.11 | - 0.95 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 452.63 | 456.37 | 0.00 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 6.45 | - 6.40 | - 0.26 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 651.89 | 658.54 | 4.38 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 199.26 | - 202.17 | - 4.38 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 22.75 | 22.05 | - 0.10 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 68.77 | 68.26 | 0.95 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/08/26 | 2025/09/01 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 397.90 | 398.02 | - 3.14 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 410.84 | 412.08 | - 4.08 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 487.99 | 482.37 | - 3.40 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 86.31 | 85.23 | - 0.71 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 5.01 | - 4.43 | 0.05 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 150.70 | - 148.33 | 1.86 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/08/26 | 2025/09/01 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 396.25 | 397.89 | - 1.96 | | FOB VLSFO | 489.51 | 485.45 | - 2.60 | | 380 Basis | - 2.00 | - 0.40 | 0.70 | | High - sulfur Internal - external Spread | 4.1 | 6.0 | 3.6 | | Low - sulfur Internal - external Spread | 9.5 | 14.9 | 6.9 | [3] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/08/26 | 2025/09/01 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2842 | 2824 | 12 | | FU 05 | 2799 | 2782 | 9 | | FU 09 | 2827 | 2737 | 2 | | FU 01 - 05 | 43 | 42 | 3 | | FU 05 - 09 | - 28 | 45 | 7 | | FU 09 - 01 | - 15 | - 87 | - 10 | [3] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/08/26 | 2025/09/01 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3488 | 3451 | - 28 | | LU 05 | 3451 | 3398 | - 37 | | LU 09 | 3460 | 3374 | 62 | | LU 01 - 05 | 37 | 53 | 9 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 9 | 24 | - 99 | | LU 09 - 01 | - 28 | - 77 | 90 | [4]
燃料油早报-20250822
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 01:17
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No content provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst rebounded and then weakened, the near - month spread oscillated, and the EW spread oscillated. The 9 - 10 spread weakened to $3.5/ton, the basis oscillated at a low level (-$4), and the FU01 internal - external spread slightly weakened to -$0.8. The 0.5 cracking of Singapore oscillated and weakened, the 9 - 10 spread weakened to $2.75/ton, and the LU11 internal - external spread oscillated at $9. [4][5] - Singapore's land inventory decreased this week, but it was still not the highest in the same period of history. The floating storage decreased significantly month - on - month, Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased significantly, the arrivals oscillated this week, the shipments from the UAE rebounded month - on - month, and the net exports increased significantly. The land inventory in Fujairah, the Middle East, decreased, the floating storage inventory of high - sulfur and low - sulfur increased significantly, the ARA residue inventory increased, and the US residue inventory decreased, with a large inventory contradiction. [5] - The east - west divergence of high - sulfur continued. In the heavy - oil pattern, the cracking of Singapore 380cst was the weakest, and the premium of heavy - crude oil was the strongest. It is expected to return in both directions later. This week, LU remained weak, the basis of the external MF0.5 weakened again and then oscillated, the LU quota was issued, and the internal - external spread oscillated. [5] - In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity of the high - sulfur 380 EW spread widening. Fundamentally, the expected supply of high - sulfur will increase, and the supply - demand pattern will weaken. [5] 3. Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data | Type | 2025/08/15 | 2025/08/18 | 2025/08/19 | 2025/08/20 | 2025/08/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 390.27 | 385.76 | 383.41 | 386.27 | 386.40 | 0.13 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 452.69 | 446.79 | 445.77 | 447.87 | 452.12 | 4.25 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 4.33 | - 4.74 | - 5.18 | - 5.40 | - 6.25 | - 0.85 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 635.32 | 624.64 | 637.68 | 647.20 | 657.30 | 10.10 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 182.63 | - 177.85 | - 191.91 | - 199.33 | - 205.18 | - 5.85 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 21.97 | 19.81 | 22.26 | 22.39 | 22.97 | 0.58 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 62.42 | 61.03 | 62.36 | 61.60 | 65.72 | 4.12 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Data | Type | 2025/08/15 | 2025/08/18 | 2025/08/19 | 2025/08/20 | 2025/08/21 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 390.95 | 391.35 | 386.44 | 388.83 | 392.45 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 403.51 | 403.47 | 401.16 | 402.12 | 401.16 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 476.79 | 476.24 | 474.78 | 475.48 | 480.02 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 82.76 | 82.50 | 83.18 | 84.72 | 86.11 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 4.09 | - 3.57 | - 4.67 | - 4.63 | - 5.30 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 135.63 | - 134.26 | - 140.75 | - 151.45 | - 157.19 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/08/15 | 2025/08/18 | 2025/08/19 | 2025/08/20 | 2025/08/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 387.36 | 387.68 | 383.23 | 386.10 | 388.12 | 2.02 | | FOB VLSFO | 477.51 | 475.97 | 474.41 | 474.94 | 478.38 | 3.44 | | 380 Basis | - 3.40 | - 2.90 | - 3.25 | - 2.65 | - 1.15 | 1.50 | | High - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 2.5 | 0.1 | - 3.3 | - 1.8 | - 3.5 | - 1.7 | | Low - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 8.2 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 6.9 | - 2.0 | [3] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/08/15 | 2025/08/18 | 2025/08/19 | 2025/08/20 | 2025/08/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2746 | 2739 | 2713 | 2719 | 2736 | 17 | | FU 05 | 2741 | 2735 | 2713 | 2712 | 2731 | 19 | | FU 09 | 2691 | 2713 | 2686 | 2687 | 2698 | 11 | | FU 01 - 05 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 5 | - 2 | | FU 05 - 09 | 50 | 22 | 27 | 25 | 33 | 8 | | FU 09 - 01 | - 55 | - 26 | - 27 | - 32 | - 38 | - 6 | [3] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/08/15 | 2025/08/18 | 2025/08/19 | 2025/08/20 | 2025/08/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3420 | 3426 | 3417 | 3411 | 3443 | 32 | | LU 05 | 3395 | 3391 | 3390 | 3376 | 3413 | 37 | | LU 09 | 3423 | 3477 | 3452 | 3422 | 3456 | 34 | | LU 01 - 05 | 25 | 35 | 27 | 35 | 30 | - 5 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 28 | - 86 | - 62 | - 46 | - 43 | 3 | | LU 09 - 01 | 3 | 51 | 35 | 11 | 13 | 2 | [4]